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Pattern November Knock-Out

ForsythSnow said:
Yep, it's sure a beauty! (NOT!)
gfs_T2m_seus_47.png
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It’s the 18z GFS. We toss it. Dilly Dilly


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whatalife said:
It’s the 18z GFS. We toss it. Dilly Dilly


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It'll nail this or even go warmer! That's how we roll, GFS silly
Dilly Dilly! I love a good front-loaded winter! They rock! :)
 
A beautiful day even with the occasional clouds... woke up to 31.1 this morning and made it to 58.6 this afternoon! Couldn't ask for much better weather than that for Thanksgiving! Hope everyone spent more time enjoying the holiday and being thankful than complaining about things beyond their control (aka the weather)! :-D
 
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Storm5 said:
Dilly dilly don't look at the END it's ugly. I'm riding Larry when he says the cold is coming second half of Decmeber
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Hey, easy! That riding business is for another forum, or another time! :)
 
I agree with Charlie that the Euro weeklies look downright delicious for much of the 2nd half of Dec fwiw. They look far better than the prior run (Monday run). Keep in mind that the Euro has a pretty potent warm bias. I'm pumped for possibilities. At the very least it is not at all a warm pattern from midmonth on. At best, much of the SE is cold and also gets a storm or two to track in the last half of Dec. Potentially exciting times coming to a SE town near you starting in ~3 weeks.

The CFSv2 is similar except it has cold starting by 12/10, a real possibility considering the Euro's warm bias and tendency to delay a pattern change to colder. Warning: these same weeklies suggest a several day torch just preceding this colder change. I hope that folks could handle this shortlived torch.
 
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GaWx said:
I agree with Charlie that the Euro weeklies look downright delicious for much of the 2nd half of Dec fwiw. They look far better than the prior run (Monday run). Keep in mind that the Euro has a pretty potent warm bias. I'm pumped for possibilities. At the very least it is not at all a warm pattern from midmonth on. At best, much of the SE is cold and also gets a storm or two to track in the last half of Dec. Potentially exciting times coming to a SE town near you starting in ~3 weeks.
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;)
 
GaWx said:
This winter will eventually be nicknamed "the revenge of the analogs." Analogs are not dead to me. Watch out, Mack!
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I've been burned by Euro weeklies, about as many times as I have been by Euro snow maps! :(
I'm ready for a 09/10 repeat tho! Have seen that tossed around by JB, I believe!?
 
Brent said:
As much as I would love an 09/10 repeat(20 inches of snow here), yeah, not even the same league...
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Thats just crazy that Dallas had 20" in one winter. You never EVER see Atlanta get that much snow, despite the fact that Atlanta gets on average about the same as Dallas.
 
Tarheel1 said:
I've been burned by Euro weeklies, about as many times as I have been by Euro snow maps! :(
I'm ready for a 09/10 repeat tho! Have seen that tossed around by JB, I believe!?
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09/10 was a great winter, but I think the analog JB been throwing around is winter of 10/11 (la niña year, strong one at that). That winter most of snow and cold was early, and it was another great winter...KATL suburbs had snow fall Christmas evening that year and bigger Jan snowstorm.

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EPS starts to look amazing and similar to yesterday's Euro weeklies near the end of the run... Blocking high persists and intensifies over Greenland and a ridge begins to build over the Canadian Rockies and Alaska... As Larry mentioned given its warm bias esp after week 2, if this pattern depicted here were to persist, oh man...
eps_z500a_noram_60.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
EPS starts to look amazing and similar to yesterday's Euro weeklies near the end of the run... Blocking high persists and intensifies over Greenland and a ridge begins to build over the Canadian Rockies and Alaska... As Larry mentioned given its warm bias esp after week 2, if this pattern depicted here were to persist, oh man...
View attachment 1557
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Give me a western ridge and -nao any time between 12/1 and 3/15 And I will go all in.

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Webberweather53 said:
EPS starts to look amazing and similar to yesterday's Euro weeklies near the end of the run... Blocking high persists and intensifies over Greenland and a ridge begins to build over the Canadian Rockies and Alaska... As Larry mentioned given its warm bias esp after week 2, if this pattern depicted here were to persist, oh man...
View attachment 1557
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Belt busting for sure!


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SD said:
Give me a western ridge and -nao any time between 12/1 and 3/15 And I will go all in.

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Unless MJO is in phase 3 and 4, then toss all blocking and cold pattern.
 
Sheash desperation is so thick you can cut it with a knife. I don't know how many will survive another winter like the last two.
 
On this date in 1938, a pair of early season winter storms hit North Carolina, with the 2nd one, which came in the form of a trailing/overrunning coastal trough, dropping 4-6" of snow in Franklin and Warren counties...
November 24-25 1938 NC Snowmap.png
November 26-27 1938 NC Snowmap.png

ECMWF 20th Century Reanalysis MSLP (contour), 1000-500 hPa thickness (shading), and surface analysis for 15z November 26 1938.
15z November 26 1938 MSLP & Thickness.jpg

ECMWF 20th Century Reanalysis 500 hPa vorticity (shaded) & 500 hPa geopotential height for 6z November 27 1938. Note the deep trough & attendant cyclonic vorticity maxima over the lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley...
6z November 27 1938 500 hPa vorticity & gph.jpg
 
Browsing this forum's Dec of 2016 posts, there was similar optimism with similar ENSO, which one might think is a cause for concern that we're being too optimistic. However, the AO/NAO were horrible (AO was very strongly positive 12/10-31) and the QBO was strongly positive. We have about the opposite QBO. Further to the above, I just looked at the updated GEFS based AO 2 week forecast. It is trending back to more solidly negative:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif
 
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