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Pattern November Knock-Out

BTW, in case anyone was curious, I made a 500hPa height and vorticity animation for that January 1940 storm in IDV using the ERA-20C data. You can definitely see a lot more detail using these fields and while the data isn't as reliable as it is in the satellite, the sporadic radiosonde observations in this era in addition to using a reanalysis model w/ an ECMWF core certainly doesn't hurt confidence that this is legit... I actually can't believe how negatively tilted and expansive this trough. The trough axis extends all the way from Alaska to the southeastern US at one point, and according to this dataset it was an extremely rare triple phase...

The animation begins on 0z January 21 1940 and goes to 0z January 25 1940
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I've always been in awe of the historical record from Jan 1940... there were only 6 days without at least a trace of snow on the ground. It was CHA's second coldest January, after 1977, since 1870.
 
Euro CAPE values are getting on up there. This would no doubt suggest strong storms to severe storms ahead of the approaching strong cold front.
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WeatherWatch said:
Euro CAPE values are getting on up there. This would no doubt suggest strong storms to severe storms ahead of the approaching strong cold front.
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well, this was almost 4 days ago.. what's it looking like now?
 
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True, don't know about Dallas, but CHA hit 32, and 30, during that snap. Upper 20s around Thanksgiving is just par on the great golf course of Late Autumn min temps. It's like our golf game just gets worse every year, but we still praise it like we're winning the Green Jacket.
 
According to CanSIPS the eastern US will never see a BN month again... CFS is a little less absurd. CanSIPS is going to be wrong oh wrong for Nov already I think.
 
whamby said:
According to CanSIPS the eastern US will never see a BN month again... CFS is a little less absurd. CanSIPS is going to be wrong oh wrong for Nov already I think.
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Holy wow ! The 6z GFS says cansips can suck it! Gonna be quite cold after thanksgiving! :)
 
whatalife said:
Really like where we are and where we appear to be headed with our pattern. Feeling really hopeful for some on this board to see some type of winter precipitation in December.


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The GFS has that potential look to it for Thanksgiving time, so if it continues, it could be interesting. A cold blast looks likely at that time still so temps should feel right for Thanksgiving.
 
ForsythSnow said:
The GFS has that potential look to it for Thanksgiving time, so if it continues, it could be interesting. A cold blast looks likely at that time still so temps should feel right for Thanksgiving.
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I agree, temps should feel right around thanksgiving, ive posted this the other day about interesting sneaker around that time frame, even if we dont get anything then, we will later. Love the cold coming, thats worth it all.:)
 
Swamped at the office and no real time to study or comment today, but real quickly I'll toss this out there as a positive signal, since it continues a trend ...

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Just hoping that if it comes to fruition, it's not a passing fancy, but rather a precursor for a good, long, solid winter ... ;)
 
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