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Pattern November Knock-Out

pcbjr said:
"I" is the most overused word in the English language. However, here's more overuse - I wish folks would calm down and enjoy a true fall for a change; I wish for a real winter coming up, but I wish equally for a bit of serenity in the reactions to a model run or two ...
Your Curmudgeon
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We've already been having a real November and I expect a real winter (near normal) to follow.
 
pcbjr said:
Like I said, Larry, it's a true fall for a change ... :D:cool:;)
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I agree that it's a true fall once we got to mid fall and it has been fantastic! Early fall not so much with the very warm first half of Oct.
 
GaWx said:
I agree that it's a true fall once we got to mid to fall and it has been fantastic! Early fall not so much with the very warm first half of Oct.
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I guess it's all geography -- fall starts here a little later than there and north; this month has been great for long walks - even hit Vets Park late the other afternoon ... :cool: ... fantabulous ... heck, I've been in the 30s a few times ... now just a freeze to get the ticks and its off to San Falasco for a 5 hour walk! ;)
https://www.floridastateparks.org/park/San-Felasco-Hammock
 
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GaWx said:
We've already been having a real November and I expect a real winter (near normal) to follow.
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I feel a lot better about this upcoming winter than I did last year. Before we know it we will be tracking our first storm. Could possibly be as early as next month which would be nice.
 
Wondering if we can finish up November below normal? With these modeled Arctic blasts not verifying nearly as cold as modeled and the very, very warm first week or so, don't they can be overcome??
 
2d925d5774d3739cbc8ecf92b965d1e7.jpg


Got much warmer than forecast today..57 verses the 66.2 it got up to lol. Still much better than last year! Great day to put the final touches on Christmas outside!


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metwannabe said:
So what gives Eric, are the forecasted indicies wrong or are we in a time where they don't matter or is this going to be a super anomalous pattern?

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I wouldn't necessarily view this as the teleconnections are "wrong", I think it's important to understand what they physically mean, where they came from, and what they're really meant to represent in a larger sense. Teleconnections are merely representations of forcings (variance in mass transports/redistribution related to Rossby Wave behavior, external forcings, etc.) that ultimately drive them, and were made to simplify and describe the highly complex, non-linear, seemingly chaotic nature of the ocean-atmosphere into a few, easier to digest variables. To get a better sense of what's really going on here it's important to understand the physical mechanisms that can modulate them and understand that few (if any) of these teleconnection patterns are truly independent from one another (although eigenvector (EOF) analysis may argue otherwise) and often possess significant overlap). For example, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) mode is just a localized version of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) (thus the NAO is often (but not always) moderate-highly correlated to the AO and of the same sign) and the NAO just simply represents the meridional variation in the North Atlantic storm track, which is influenced by a plethora of phenomena (including but not limited to: Rossby Wave trains emanating from tropical convection, quasi-stationary planetary waves (w/ some seasonal modulation by ENSO), higher frequency Rossby wave packets and transients, and solar activity, just to name a few). Knowing what these phenomena are and what influence they could have on teleconnections like the NAO will provide you an appreciably deeper understanding of what's actually going on here and you'll probably see why I chose to disagree with your statement that the teleconnections were "wrong". I'm not saying they're "right" either, at least in the same sense as what you're trying to get at, but I'm trying to steer you in a direction that entices you (& others here) to take on a much different, analytical perspective of teleconnections if nothing else.

See Wallace and Gutzler (1980) for a more detailed, technical description and overview of teleconnections and how they were derived.
Although it's an old paper, it definitely helps give some perspective on where indices like the AO, NAO, PNA, etc. come from and what they physically mean/represent in a larger sense...
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0493(1981)109<0784:TITGHF>2.0.CO;2
 
Webberweather53 said:
I wouldn't necessarily view this as the teleconnections are "wrong", I think it's important to understand what they physically mean, where they came from, and what they're really meant to represent in a larger sense. Teleconnections are merely representations of forcings (variance in mass transports/redistribution related to Rossby Wave behavior, external forcings, etc.) that ultimately drive them, and were made to simplify and describe the highly complex, non-linear, seemingly chaotic nature of the ocean-atmosphere into a few, easier to digest variables. To get a better sense of what's really going on here it's important to understand the physical mechanisms that can modulate them and understand that few (if any) of these teleconnection patterns are truly independent from one another (although eigenvector (EOF) analysis may argue otherwise) and often possess significant overlap). For example, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) mode is just a localized version of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) (thus the NAO is often (but not always) moderate-highly correlated to the AO and of the same sign) and the NAO just simply represents the meridional variation in the North Atlantic storm track, which is influenced by a plethora of phenomena (including but not limited to: Rossby Wave trains emanating from tropical convection, quasi-stationary planetary waves (w/ some seasonal modulation by ENSO), higher frequency Rossby wave packets and transients, and solar activity, just to name a few). Knowing what these phenomena are and what influence they could have on teleconnections like the NAO will provide you an appreciably deeper understanding of what's actually going on here and you'll probably see why I chose to disagree with your statement that the teleconnections were "wrong". I'm not saying they're "right" either, at least in the same sense as what you're trying to get at, but I'm trying to steer you in a direction that entices you (& others here) to take on a much different, analytical perspective of teleconnections if nothing else.

See Wallace and Gutzler (1980) for a more detailed, technical description and overview of teleconnections and how they were derived.
Although it's an old paper, it definitely helps give some perspective on where indices like the AO, NAO, PNA, etc. come from and what they physically mean/represent in a larger sense...
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0493(1981)109<0784:TITGHF>2.0.CO;2
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Fantastic post, Webb!
Thanks!
Phil


Edit: Hope you understand that most of us are just hanging a hat on any rack that may provide hope for some semblance of a winter ... human nature ... o_O
 
Models schmodels ...

This is what a forecasted 1" plus rain looks like in Gainesville - less than 18 hours ago 90% was the NWS call ... not even a drizzle ... so 5, 10, 15 days out on anything ... not a clue, IMHO

Screen_Shot_2017-11-21_at_6.21.07_PM.png
 
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pcbjr said:
Models schmodels ...

This is what a forecasted 1" plus rain looks like in Gainesville - less than 18 hours ago 90% was the NWS call ... not even a drizzle ... so 5, 10, 15 days out on anything ... not a clue, IMHO

Screen_Shot_2017-11-21_at_6.21.07_PM.png
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I got some drizzle today

DILLY DILLY


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Webberweather53 said:
I wouldn't necessarily view this as the teleconnections are "wrong", I think it's important to understand what they physically mean, where they came from, and what they're really meant to represent in a larger sense. Teleconnections are merely representations of forcings (variance in mass transports/redistribution related to Rossby Wave behavior, external forcings, etc.) that ultimately drive them, and were made to simplify and describe the highly complex, non-linear, seemingly chaotic nature of the ocean-atmosphere into a few, easier to digest variables. To get a better sense of what's really going on here it's important to understand the physical mechanisms that can modulate them and understand that few (if any) of these teleconnection patterns are truly independent from one another (although eigenvector (EOF) analysis may argue otherwise) and often possess significant overlap). For example, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) mode is just a localized version of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) (thus the NAO is often (but not always) moderate-highly correlated to the AO and of the same sign) and the NAO just simply represents the meridional variation in the North Atlantic storm track, which is influenced by a plethora of phenomena (including but not limited to: Rossby Wave trains emanating from tropical convection, quasi-stationary planetary waves (w/ some seasonal modulation by ENSO), higher frequency Rossby wave packets and transients, and solar activity, just to name a few). Knowing what these phenomena are and what influence they could have on teleconnections like the NAO will provide you an appreciably deeper understanding of what's actually going on here and you'll probably see why I chose to disagree with your statement that the teleconnections were "wrong". I'm not saying they're "right" either, at least in the same sense as what you're trying to get at, but I'm trying to steer you in a direction that entices you (& others here) to take on a much different, analytical perspective of teleconnections if nothing else.

See Wallace and Gutzler (1980) for a more detailed, technical description and overview of teleconnections and how they were derived.
Although it's an old paper, it definitely helps give some perspective on where indices like the AO, NAO, PNA, etc. come from and what they physically mean/represent in a larger sense...
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0493(1981)109<0784:TITGHF>2.0.CO;2
Click to expand...
Thanks Eric and great post.... but to be fair Judah actually posted the same question I just rephrased and directed it to you

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Webberweather53 said:
Ugh, lol...
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Lol no "ugh" needed... that was great information and every time I read your post I learn more and more. I love giving the teacher an opportunity to educate us students

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metwannabe said:
Lol no "ugh" needed... that was great information and every time I read your post I learn more and more. I love giving the teacher an opportunity to educate us students

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and that we are ...

Sophomores, if not recent enrollees into next year's class ...
 
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metwannabe said:
Lol no "ugh" needed... that was great information and every time I read your post I learn more and more. I love giving the teacher an opportunity to educate us students

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Haha no problem! Yeah the ugh wasn't directed towards you but more so those who already have degrees (& have published papers on similar topics for crying out loud) and should know the information I just presented but apparently either chose to ignore or forget it...
 
It appears that a pattern shift is coming for early December. Not a major pattern shift, but it will be a shift. As of now, the pattern is somewhat zonal, a few systems moving from west to east for the rest of the month across the nation. The somewhat zonal flow will continue into the last days of this month into early December. However, the western ridge will be over the east at some point in early December. Whenever it comes to the time the ridge is over the east, troughs will be digging down in the southwestern US cutting across the Plains and than the Mid-West. What does that mean for us in the SE? More cold fronts, chance at severe weather goes up, quick shots at rainfall and shots at cold weather. Sometimes low pressure systems will come up from the south along the frontal boundary from the cutter as cold air is filtering in from the NW. That will be something to watch out for.
 
GaWx said:
-AO peak was yesterday's rather impressive -3.5! Sub -3 in Nov happens only once in about I forgot how many years lol,
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I think I remember Don from the other board mentioning how a huge -AO has a better chance to repeat as we go through the colder months. Should be interesting.
 
Brick Tamland said:
I would say put this guy in the pit of misery, but Carolina's football season has already done that.
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A Clemson loss Saturday, would help to ease the pain of football season, and this sucky pattern we are in!
 
pcbjr said:
Generally, looking out at 2 weeks, from the GFS ensembles at 12Z it appears the model wants us near climo for a while; beats the heck out of a Hades outlook like last year ...

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSTDEP2WIDE_12z/tloop.html
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I’ll take near climo all the way till January. Heck if February can get below normal I’ll wait till then if need be. It was just 2 winters ago that seemed the season was doomed as we entered the first week of February. But starting on February 16th we preceded to get multiple snow and ice storms and some bone chilling cold. The last half of February alone more then made up for the 3 quarters of a junk winter. But as a bonus we ended up with 3-5 inches of snow the first week of March! I guess I’m posting this to be positive in case we still haven’t got the goods by mid January. In fact more often then not February has been the best month for snow in the 11 years I’ve lived in Tennessee.
 
Well, as everyone gets ready for Thanksgiving, here's wishing all the very best!
Please be thankful for your blessings this year, even if it didn't snow in your back yard!
As for me, I'm getting ready to cook, and in so doing, would like to share a thought (and a pic is always worth a 1000 words) ...

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