• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern November Knock-Out

Per MDA wx, RDU is now projected to be 3 colder than normal for the period Nov 1-26! Remember all of that warm November talk that dominated the discussions here in late Oct?
 
The Arctic continues to be MUCH colder than it was last autumn with it now being 16F colder than it was a year ago! Also, it continues to get closer and closer to normal with it now being only 3 F warmer than normal vs 19 warmer than normal one year ago today and vs a whopping 34 warmer than normal on 11/19/16!! (No that's not a typo.)

Arctic temp. graph day by day for 2017: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2017.png

Arctic temp. graph day by day for 2016: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2016.png

The Arctic has not had any colder than normal days **in winter** (other than ~1-2 colder on a couple of days) in 3 years and no sustained significant colder than normal in more than 15 years! So, just averaging close to normal for a decent period would be a big victory in this day and age.

**Edited: "in winter"
 
Last edited:
GaWx said:
The Arctic continues to be MUCH colder than it was last autumn with it now being 16F colder than it was a year ago! Also, it continues to get closer and closer to normal with it now being only 3 F warmer than normal vs 19 warmer than normal one year ago today and vs a whopping 34 warmer than normal on 11/19/16!! (No that's not a typo.)

Arctic temp. graph day by day for 2017: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2017.png

Arctic temp. graph day by day for 2016: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2016.png

The Arctic has not had any colder than normal days (other than ~1-2 colder on a couple of days) in 3 years and no sustained significant colder than normal in more than 15 years! So, just averaging close to normal for a decent period would be a big victory in this day and age.
Click to expand...
Larry,
Keep the good news coming! ;)
Phil

PS - Especially when you can say that the cold will come south; and more especialy when it will lock for an extended duration ... LOL ... :rolleyes:
 
Last edited:
The entire synoptic meteorology class I'm in has to do a case study on a winter storm this semester, and in the process of doing so I made some comparisons to the January 1940 winter storm in the Carolinas and VA...

The following depicts a sequence of images showcasing 500mb heights, 1000-500 hPa thickness, and SLP from 6z January 24 2000 to 12z January 25 2000 (top) and 12z January 23 1940 to 12z January 24 1940 (bottom)... Note how similar the LP track, intensity, and overall evolution are very similar between the two storms, the January 1940 storm had a significant head start on January 2000 w/ more diabatic heating/PV in its attendant trough before it also likely underwent instant occlusion off the SE US and mid Atlantic coasts late on January 23rd and into the 24th.
Untitled.png

January 21-24 1940 US Snowmap.png
20000124-20000126-2.52.jpg

January 23-24 1940 NC Snowmap.png
January 24-25 2000 NC Snowmap.gif
 
Webberweather53 said:
The entire synoptic meteorology class I'm in has to do a case study on a winter storm this semester, and in the process of doing so I made some comparisons to the January 1940 winter storm in the Carolinas and VA...

The following depicts a sequence of images showcasing 500mb heights, 1000-500 hPa thickness, and SLP from 6z January 24 2000 to 12z January 25 2000 (top) and 12z January 23 1940 to 12z January 24 1940 (bottom)... Note how similar the LP track, intensity, and overall evolution are very similar between the two storms, the January 1940 storm had a significant head start on January 2000 w/ more diabatic heating/PV in its attendant trough before it also likely underwent instant occlusion off the SE US and mid Atlantic coasts late on January 23rd and into the 24th.
View attachment 1524

View attachment 1523
View attachment 1525

View attachment 1526
View attachment 1527
Click to expand...
Webb,
Just out of curiosity, what was the PNA like for each of those events?
Best,
Phil
 
^That January of 1940 snowstorm is one of the heaviest in Atlanta since records started in the late 1800s. There hasn't been one as heavy since although March of 1983, a much warmer snow, came very close and the March of 1993 blizzard came close or exceeded it in the northern burbs.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The entire synoptic meteorology class I'm in has to do a case study on a winter storm this semester, and in the process of doing so I made some comparisons to the January 1940 winter storm in the Carolinas and VA...

The following depicts a sequence of images showcasing 500mb heights, 1000-500 hPa thickness, and SLP from 6z January 24 2000 to 12z January 25 2000 (top) and 12z January 23 1940 to 12z January 24 1940 (bottom)... Note how similar the LP track, intensity, and overall evolution are very similar between the two storms, the January 1940 storm had a significant head start on January 2000 w/ more diabatic heating/PV in its attendant trough before it also likely underwent instant occlusion off the SE US and mid Atlantic coasts late on January 23rd and into the 24th.
View attachment 1524

View attachment 1523
View attachment 1525

View attachment 1526
View attachment 1527
Click to expand...
Holy hell give me the 1940 storm again and I'll punt the next three winters. Omgd I'm saving this image for when I need late night weather porn
 
Storm5 said:
Holy hell give me the 1940 storm again and I'll punt the next three winters. Omgd I'm saving this image for when I need late night weather porn
Click to expand...
Give me February 1899 or Christmas 1989 in Gainesville and I'm with you ... I'll snap the ball for you to punt ... :cool:
 
Last edited:
pcbjr said:
Webb,
Just out of curiosity, what was the PNA like for each of those events?
Best,
Phil
Click to expand...

A record low -AO (reconstructed via SLP) was recorded right before this event of -6.4 on January 16, 1940, almost certainly attributable to a major sudden stratospheric warming event in mid-late December 1939 and early January 1940, which is depicted w/ great magnitude, even in the sparse radiosonde network during this era...
(NOAA 20th century reanalysis daily AO index)
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/20thC_Rean/timeseries/AO/ao.20cr.daily.long.data

ECMWF 20th Century Reanalysis January 23-25 1940 Northern Hemisphere 500 hPa height anomalies (vs 1910-1970 base period)
Screen Shot 2017-11-12 at 3.34.19 PM.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
A record low -AO (reconstructed via SLP) was recorded right before this event of -6.4 on January 16, 1940, almost certainly attributable to a major sudden stratospheric warming event in mid-late December 1939 and early January 1940, which is depicted w/ great magnitude, even in the sparse radiosonde network during this era...
(NOAA 20th century reanalysis daily AO index)
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/20thC_Rean/timeseries/AO/ao.20cr.daily.long.data
Click to expand...
Thanks, Man!
 
That January 23,1940 snow, which gave downtown ATL 10", resulted in 4"+ of snowcover for another 7 days and snowcover of any amount for 11 straight days after the storm at the airport, itself, which got 8.3" rather than the 10" that downtown got!! That almost has to be a record. This was helped by 5 days in a row that didn't get above 30, 4 days in a row of single digit lows, and 11 straight days of lows of 28 or colder.

By the way, that was during a weak El Nino per Webb's chart.
 
GaWx said:
That January 23,1940 snow, which gave downtown ATL 10", resulted in 4"+ of snowcover for another 7 days and snowcover of any amount for 11 straight days after the storm!! That almost has to be a record. This was helped by 5 days in a row that didn't get above 30, 4 days in a row of single digit lows, and 11 straigth days of lows of 28 or colder.

By the way, that was during a weak El Nino per Webb's chart.
Click to expand...

Wow, interesting stats larry! Yeah I'm actually about to release an updated series of ENSO charts, I've added NOAA's new ERSSTv5 dataset to my ENS ONI index and I'm just putting some of the finishing touches on it atm
 
Storm5 said:
Holy hell give me the 1940 storm again and I'll punt the next three winters. Omgd I'm saving this image for when I need late night weather porn
Click to expand...
Yeah, board wide!! Much more fun of a storm for a lot of areas, makes the Carolina crusher look lame! Sorry Brick! :)
 
Tarheel1 said:
Yeah, board wide!! Much more fun of a storm for a lot of areas, makes the Carolina crusher look lame! Sorry Brick! :)
Click to expand...
That was not much of a storm at all along and north of I-85 in SC. Down my way it was another story, with me getting 1 foot from it.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top