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Pattern November Knock-Out

Cad Wedge NC said:
Yep, much better Fall season than last year this time.
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Fall has been way better this year vs last year without a doubt. I’ve been a little below normal for most of November with only a few days of well above average. I will say that we have been lacking that true deep freeze cold as my grass in my yard continued to grow slowly into last week. Last night though my temp hit freezing around 8pm and was at 30 by 10pm so that long hard freeze should put a stop to the grass growth. Hopefully by the beginning of January we will have some true Artic air and snow storms to track. But until January starts I won’t worry to much about missing out this winter as it’s still way to early to call it one way or the other.
 
Coldest night of the Fall last night here as we dropped to 26. It was also our first freeze and first hard freeze. It felt great! We barely hit 50 yesterday and here just before 2 p.m. sit at 56. Perfect fall weather.
 
Brent said:
Dallas has set a record for longest time without a freeze

and the forecast keeps trending warmer

Wake me when this pattern ends
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I drove to Dallas for the Jan. 2, 1984 Cotton Bowl (UGA vs. Texas), and the high - the *high*, mind you - was in the mid-30's that day. We froze our butts off, but at least the Dawgs won.
 
olhausen said:
Fall has been way better this year vs last year without a doubt. I’ve been a little below normal for most of November with only a few days of well above average. I will say that we have been lacking that true deep freeze cold as my grass in my yard continued to grow slowly into last week. Last night though my temp hit freezing around 8pm and was at 30 by 10pm so that long hard freeze should put a stop to the grass growth. Hopefully by the beginning of January we will have some true Artic air and snow storms to track. But until January starts I won’t worry to much about missing out this winter as it’s still way to early to call it one way or the other.
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I also feel as we could get something of a winterstorm sometime in December as well.
 
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This pattern is woof. Sorry but we aren't going to see a planetary scale ridge stretch over literally all of North America and torch the whole continent, the large scale configuration favors a trough near the eastern US. Lol the EPS needs to quit taking notes from unreasonably warm climate models like the CFSv2
 
Tarheel1 said:
Setting up for Dingleberry December!
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Webberweather53 said:
View attachment 1545

This pattern is woof. Sorry but we aren't going to see a planetary scale ridge stretch over literally all of North America and torch the whole continent, the large scale configuration favors a trough near the eastern US. Lol the EPS needs to quit taking notes from unreasonably warm climate models like the CFSv2
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that pattern as show, = Dook!
December to remember, on the table! Dilly Dilly ain't looking that chilly!
 
FWIW - Don't count any chickens. The eggs haven't even been laid yet ...

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Not saying anything in agreement, just being cautious, and probably silly.
The Curmudgeon

PS - If it's lost in translation, I'm wholeheartedly with Webb above ...
 
Slight chance of being warmer than normal for the first week of December is not a big deal. Hoping the hammer drops by the 2nd half of the month.
 
GFS is still suggesting a zonal-"ish" flow for early December. Cold hanging on in the far northeastern US. That's okay, it's normal for the jet stream to relax and let the cold
"re-load."
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WeatherWatch said:
GFS is still suggesting a zonal-"ish" flow for early December. Cold hanging on in the far northeastern US. That's okay, it's normal for the jet stream to relax and let the cold
"re-load."
8ff29c2ead3daf08e7be22d1831eae22.jpg


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I love a re-load of normal!
 
Tarheel1 said:
I love a re-load of normal!
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Normal is the new below normal. Take normal and run these days! I haven't seen a single below normal month in nearly 2 years! But I'll finally have a shot this month. If not this month, I've already predicted a below normal Dec for the SE as per QBO/ENSO analogs thanks mainly to a cold 2nd half.
 
Tarheel1 said:
Setting up for Dingleberry December!
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Your warmish view is a little disturbing. I don't know if you are serious or just trying to poke fun at those who are looking for something promising. "Dingleberry December" ??? Please explain.....
 
Weather Blunderground finally revised the low for tonight to 35... they were forecasting 41, and it's now 38. Maybe there is some overnight warming expected?
 
Yellow Snow said:
I drove to Dallas for the Jan. 2, 1984 Cotton Bowl (UGA vs. Texas), and the high - the *high*, mind you - was in the mid-30's that day. We froze our butts off, but at least the Dawgs won.
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heh, 83-84 in the benchmark winter here for cold. DFW was below freezing in December for a record setting 11 days straight

and then in 1989 the last time the airport went below zero

We just don't have winters like that anymore
 
Brent said:
heh, 83-84 in the benchmark winter here for cold. DFW was below freezing in December for a record setting 11 days straight

and then in 1989 the last time the airport went below zero

We just don't have winters like that anymore
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I lived in Austin during that winter.. snowed 3 times in January.

Edit: that was Jan 85 actually.. (my memory ain't so good, I was in high school then). I remember that Dec 83 though.. was intense cold, not so much snow in Austin.
 
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The only practical and sensible approach to all of this is to give in to Dumpster Fire December and pray the WX gods fall for classic reverse psychology.
 
whamby said:
I lived in Austin during that winter.. snowed 3 times in January.

Edit: that was Jan 85 actually.. (my memory ain't so good, I was in high school then). I remember that Dec 83 though.. was intense cold, not so much snow in Austin.
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the 80s had so many good winters. The 1985 inauguration it was so cold in Washington it was moved indoors.

I dunno what has happened since, now we're lucky to have a day below freezing or a low below 20.
 
Forget the year, but it was when that terrible plane crash happened in DC, crashing into the frozen Potomac.. I was in middle school in Houston with one inch of snow on the ground. Weird how snow and tragic events burn in your mind like that.
 
whamby said:
Forget the year, but it was when that terrible plane crash happened in DC, crashing into the frozen Potomac.. I was in middle school in Houston with one inch of snow on the ground. Weird how snow and tragic events burn in your mind like that.
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That was the Jan. 1982 Air Florida crash; I remember it vividly. All but 5 of the 79 passengers and crew perished, and 4 people on the ground were also killed. Just horrible.
 
Yellow Snow said:
That was the Jan. 1982 Air Florida crash; I remember it vividly. All but 5 of the 79 passengers and crew perished, and 4 people on the ground were also killed. Just horrible.
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Yeah, I was 12 then.. I remember walking home from school early, because of snow in Houston.. (yeah they let kids do that back then)... and then seeing that on the news when I got home.
 
whamby said:
Yeah, I was 12 then.. I remember walking home from school early, because of snow in Houston.. (yeah they let kids do that back then)... and then seeing that on the news when I got home.
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lol, nowadays the whole region shuts down at the site of a snowflake.

Times have sure changed.
 
there was a HIGH of 13 here in 1983 and 14 in 1989. Unfathomable today. Some winters never get that cold for a low.
 
Quote from a pro met. this evening prior to the 0Z runs coming out:

"The ensembles for all the models, GFS, Euro and Canadian turn it sharply colder late in week 2, with cross polar flow returning and dumping Arctic air into Canada on many of the members."

Keep in mind that I found QBO/ENSO/Nov AO analogs to favor a cold Dec.
 
Brent said:
there was a HIGH of 13 here in 1983 and 14 in 1989. Unfathomable today. Some winters never get that cold for a low.
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the lowest high I've personally experienced was here in CHA, 16 in early Feb 1996. (la Nina year, for whatever that's worth, lol). Although as recently as Jan 2014, I remember it being 11 degrees at around sunset, the low only went down to 5 that night. Epic recent arctic front. I was sure I was going to see my first ever below zero official temp here in Chattanooga that night, but didn't happen.
 
All points to the small scale differences in trough position for winter in the Continental US. When it's even a bit further west, North Texas gets blasted more than Tennessee or South Carolina...
 
So much for JB having a mild E US winter. Although the snow forecast dates back to August, the temperature forecast for winter is apparently significantly colder than the fairly mild forecast he previously had:



Funny and true response to JB's colder forecast (although I recall he had one or two not cold about 10-12 winters ago lol):



Edit: this JB tweet is confusing with him showing what looks like a Nov temp forecast and no DJF, but his main message is that he's going cold for much of the nation once again after earlier having mild for much of the E 1/3 of the US. He just can't handle holding onto a mild forecast. He's been among the worst pro mets in that regard over the years. Awful. Near zero credibility as regards being objective. Show me a pro met who went warm the last two winters and is now going cold and I'll then get excited about a cold pro met's forecast.
 
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Cad Wedge NC said:
Your warmish view is a little disturbing. I don't know if you are serious or just trying to poke fun at those who are looking for something promising. "Dingleberry December" ??? Please explain.....
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Meh Mack always has a negative outlook, his viewpoint has been jaded and to a degree rightfully so, he lives in SC He actually had turned the corner and for a brief time was one of the more positive posters but alas his patience has failed him and he is back to normal.

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