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Pattern November Knock-Out

Looks like the weather is going to be calm for the rest of this month and into early December. I hope mother nature brings something for us to track soon.

There won't be much of anything to track for us here in the southeast with that tall broad western ridge that will be progressing eastward as December closes in.

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Oh no, zonal flow 2nd/3rd day of December .we know what that means
....boring
22ffc99b81527b60a07bde7c999c68ae.jpg


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OTD in 1914...
November 19-20 1914 NC Snowmap.png

Here are MSLP & thickness, 500 hPa vorticity and height, 2 PVU (dynamic tropopause) potential temperature & wind, and 700 hPa Specific humidity & wind snapshots from the ECMWF's 20th Century Reanalysis dataset taken at 18z November 19th during and just after the height of the event which most likely occurred on the morning of the 19th over central NC. Some northwesterly upslope flow resulted in mountain snow showers lingered into the 20th...

1000-500 hPa thickness (shaded) & MSLP (contours)
18z November 19 1914 MSLP and Thickness.jpg


500 hPa relative vorticity (shaded) & height (contour)
18z November 19 1914 500hPa vorticity and geopotential height.jpg

2 PVU potential temperature (shaded) & wind (wind barbs)
18z November 19 1914 2PVU Potential Temperature and Wind.jpg


700 hPa specific humidity (shaded) and wind (wind barbs)
18z November 19 1914 700 hPa Specific Humidity and Wind.jpg


Given that surface temperatures during the event were about 3-4C (~37-39F) and several inches accumulated in many areas of the central piedmont, the snow that was observed was likely melting on its way to the ground and probably was very heavy and wet

12z November 19 1914 1000 hPa temperatures
12z November 19 1914 1000 hPa temperature.jpg
 
Tarheel1 said:
Take a mental picture, it's the only time your going to see white ground this winter! :(
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You were doing so well keeping positive don't fail us now. The Euro in the long range doesn't look too horrible and there is still plenty of time... keep the faith my friend.

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It was torch city for the previous two years and we still got snow, just because the models aren't showing blockbuster cold and snow now doesn't mean this winter is cancelled lol.

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metwannabe said:
You were doing so well keeping positive don't fail us now. The Euro in the long range doesn't look too horrible and there is still plenty of time... keep the faith my friend.

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I'm trying! Just feeling like the same ole song and dance! Oh man, GFS,CMC , Euro, blah blah, looks sooooo cold by day 10, day 10 comes and normal to above. :(
 
So it looks like the 12z GFS brings back the cold temps we saw much earlier on their runs on the same dates.

then warms up about a day earlier, making it transient, but hey, if this sticks maybe the GFS wasn't so off after all.
 
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GaWx said:
Holy wow, look at how much colder is the 12Z GFS vs earlier runs at hour 150!
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Larry,
It pretty much continues through the entire run. It's only one run, so we need to be cautious, but with a couple more like that, you and I may need a light sweater ... ;)
Best!
Phil

PS - Keep the good news coming ... :p


PPS - Frost on the roof this AM at sunrise ...
 
That system on the last few days of this month that cuts off to the Mid-West amplifies and almost stalls out due to the strong blocking. Not going to get a south and southeast trend with that system with ridging like that, good gracious. As of now, the NAO stays negative, heading towards neutral as December closes in. Will that system trend further south and southeastward? It's too early right now, but with the NAO not being significantly positive and the PNA isn't significantly negative, it may trend "somewhat" south and southeastward, but probably not enough to bring snow for the southeastern US.
 
WeatherWatch said:
That system on the last few days of this month that cuts off to the Mid-West amplifies and almost stalls out due to the strong blocking. Not going to get a south and southeast trend with that system with ridging like that, good gracious. As of now, the NAO stays negative, heading towards neutral as December closes in. Will that system trend further south and southeastward? It's too early right now, but with the NAO not being significantly positive and the PNA isn't significantly negative, it may trend "somewhat" south and southeastward, but probably not enough to bring snow for the southeastern US.
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Earlier you said zonal and boring the rest of the month!? And warm!
 
GaWx said:
Holy wow, look at how much colder is the 12Z GFS vs earlier runs at hour 150!
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I know your just the messenger, but we know how this ends when it's go time! Won't be nearly that cold, just a hunch! Euro won't be nearly as cold either!
 
Tarheel1 said:
I know your just the messenger, but we know how this ends when it's go time! Won't be nearly that cold, just a hunch! Euro won't be nearly as cold either!
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Man just stay positive, its not that bad now. I'm living the "NOW" time and its a nice cold 47 degrees out. Enjoy while you have;)
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Average to slightly above.
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To me this is the difference already from last year. These "warm ups" are getting us back or at worse slightly above normal. Saturday we had a howling SW wind ahead of the cold front and it got the high back up to normal, then after the front right back below. that's a far cry and much better than cold frontal passages that knock us back down to near normal like last year, hopefully it continues

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GaWx said:
The 12Z Euro is also colder than its prior run for the SE early to mid next week!
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Big relaxation at the end of the run; but it's been doing that SER relaxation at 216 to 240 for days, and when the next run comes, what was 216 to 240 a couple days ago (what becomes 144 to 168) is much different. This is all too ... pick a word ...
 
pcbjr said:
Big relaxation at the end of the run; but it's been doing that SER relaxation at 216 to 240 for days, and when the next run comes, what was 216 to 240 a couple days ago (what becomes 144 to 168) is much different. This is all too ... pick a word ...
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Lelaxation, what a wonderful thing:)
 
Tarheel1 said:
Earlier you said zonal and boring the rest of the month!? And warm!
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Rest of this month appears to be boring overall. Yes, last night the 0z GFS had a zonal look at the beginning of December, but I didn't say that there will be a zonal flow for sure. Zonal flow doesn't necessarily mean a "scorcher."

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