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Pattern November Knock-Out

Arcc said:
Crazy little warm front across AL. Temp went as low as 41 earlier. Now it sits at 56. Fired up the stove when it was cold and now I'm gonna let it burn out.
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No warm front, you must have cloud cover over your way. Cloud cover at night holds heat in at surface.
 
Actually it's possible to warm up at night. Not often but it happens. I remember plenty of times where I was wondering if whether we were on the way to a little winter weather before it warmed up (even if I didn't see it) and then I'd wake up and it was 50+ degrees after it was in the high 30s or low 40s late night.

It's 39 now. I sleep in but I suspect my dad is going to find a morning low that is 11 degrees higher than this.
 
It's mostly in fantasy land (with my purposes) and certain to moderate (if not change completely) but the GFS drops the hammer cold wise the week after Thanksgiving week.
 
Stormlover said:
and more southerly flow coming ahead of the cold front coming tomorrow
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was in the 80s here today from said flow lol was in the 70s even in Colorado/Kansas earlier

our high today is coming this morning, still in the 70s at this hour
 
Euro still looking chilly for end of the month...
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Stormlover said:
and more southerly flow coming ahead of the cold front coming tomorrow
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That was pretty much what it was. Pseudo warm front where the flow turned southerly. Clouds helped a little but observations in Shelby county and Alexander City supported this. Right after my temp spiked I noticed Shelby county showed 57 while Alex City was at 43 from obs an hour before.
 
Cold , rainy T day, for a lot of SE! Especially Carolinas, with a wedgy!
 
Damn, what a beauty! (6z GFS)
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Too bad that area of energy isn't digging. Not sure why it's not digging deeper. The western ridge isn't that tall on this run during the time that energy is out west.



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WeatherWatch said:
Damn, what a beauty! (6z GFS)
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Too bad that area of energy isn't digging. Not sure why it's not digging deeper. The western ridge isn't that tall on this run during the time that energy is out west.



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Never will get a storm out of that look for the SE. Western Ridge is too far east and the northern trough is too positively tilted.
 
I just want cold, don't care about a storm! Let's just hold this magnificent patter on into December, and we're money! Probably get a nice winter storm in December , as this blockbuster pattern breaks down and we torch until next January (2019) :)
 
I was wrong but it did stall and warm up a little to 43 by about 7:00ish AM.

The warm up though in the morning though was crazy. By 11 it was already 64, a 21 degree jump.
 
Tarheel1 said:
I just want cold, don't care about a storm! Let's just hold this magnificent patter on into December, and we're money! Probably get a nice winter storm in December , as this blockbuster pattern breaks down and we torch until next January (2019) :)
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Might want to consider changing the 2019 to 2023 LOL
 
Storm5 said:
You do realize what he is talking about has to do with a stronger system developing that pulls closer to the coast for the northeast
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Yes, as of now, if any phase, it will be mostly towards the northeast. But, if phase (if any) occurs further south, some places could see snow east of the APPS, including the southern APPS.

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Storm5 said:
Jackson Hole Wyoming already has 100 inches of snow and they are technically not even open for the season yet
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That's a lot better start to the season, than the SD snow hole, NC! :(
 
I found 3 GEFS members from the 6z runs from today that have a chance at snow between the 26th and the 28th. Thickness values do support snow on mostly all 3 members. Member 1 brings a decent snow for NC. Member 3 is dropping the hammer with the cold. 516 thickness value making it's way down into the southeast which is likely overdone with some overrunning (snow.) Member 4 shows a weak Gulf low with the cold air coming down from the NW as the low is pushing off to the east.
 
Late bloomer, OTS it goes. That was the system that some of the 6z GEFS has on some of it's members.
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cd2play said:
Hypothetical ?... Would you be willing to see Duke win the National Title if that punched your ticket to a major snowstorm?
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Give me A10", pure snowstorm this winter, Duke can win the next 5 consecutive championships! Seriously! The chances of repeating, are about 5%, so I'm willing to sacrifice!
 
cd2play said:
I hope one of these days before the Golden Trumpet sounds, we get a board-wide winter storm ala January 1988.
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Even better than 1/1988 would be a truer boardwide (regular posters) event like 2/1899, which would also include Phil. Here's to
hoping. It has happened before and will happen again. Otherwise, I'm sure Phil, like me, wouldn't mind seeing another 1/1977 or 12/1989.
 
The climate is warming so fast we probably won’t see those kinds of events again. Pretty sad really.


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KSAV is currently between +1 and +2 for the month to date. Per model runs out 2 weeks, they will have a halfway decent chance to finally break the record long streak of warmer than normal months. They haven't had a colder than normal month since way back in January of 2016, when they were barely below normal (-0.6)! Before that, they hadn't had a below normal month since Feb of 2015! So, they have had only one of the previous 32 months colder than normal!
 
BHS1975 said:
The climate is warming so fast we probably won’t see those kinds of events again. Pretty sad really.
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Hopefully, there will be a reversal of at least some of the warming in coming decades with the help of the anticipated upcoming solar grand minimum/quietest in 200+ years. However, it remains to be seen how much a grand minimum would help. Some here like Webb as well as many scientists don't think even a grand solar minimum would be able to reverse more than a pretty small portion of the warming based on the estimated direct effects of solar variance. I'm remaining open minded and hopeful, however, that much larger indirect effects (like cosmic rays and/or something else that is unknown) could add to the small direct effect and result in a significant cooling. I'm not saying it will. I'm just openminded about it.

Regardless, even if we can't get much of a cooling, extreme wintry events will still occur but likely at lower frequency. Food for thought: In 12/1989, KSAV had a major snowstorm that tied the heaviest snow there back all of the way to the mid 1800s. This snow was not accompanied by temperatures in the borderline low to mid 30s or even near 30 or even frigid (for SAV snow) mid to upper 20s. They had LOW 20s and upper teens during the entire 24 hour+ snow!! I assume folks understand my point with this example.
 
GaWx said:
Hopefully, there will be a reversal of at least some of the warming in coming decades with the help of the anticipated upcoming solar grand minimum/quietest in 200+ years. However, it remains to be seen how much a grand minimum would help. Some here like Webb as well as many scientists don't think even a grand solar minimum would be able to reverse more than a pretty small portion of the warming based on the estimated direct effects of solar variance. I'm remaining open minded and hopeful, however, that much larger indirect effects (like cosmic rays and/or something else that is unknown) could add to the small direct effect and result in a significant cooling. I'm not saying it will. I'm just openminded about it.

Regardless, even if we can't get much of a cooling, extreme wintry events will still occur but likely at lower frequency. Food for thought: In 12/1989, KSAV had a major snowstorm that tied the heaviest snow there back all of the way to the mid 1800s. This snow was not accompanied by temperatures in the borderline low to mid 30s or even near 30 or even frigid (for SAV snow) mid to upper 20s. They had LOW 20s and upper teens during the entire 24 hour+ snow!! I assume folks understand my point with this example.
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That was a tough one living near CLT at the time! Mary a flurry, barely a cloud storm! But man that was some cold air!!
 
cd2play said:
Believing Global Warming doesn't automatically mean a Al Gore fan or even a democrat. In fact, I'm not even remotely close to being a fan of Gore... but I'm really starting to wonder about GW, and the effects of it.
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It's all cyclical! There will be another ice age in the next 500 to 10000 years! On topic, the nextest, most coldest, cold outbreak, is only 2 weeks away! :(
 
cd2play said:
Believing Global Warming doesn't automatically mean a Al Gore fan or even a democrat. In fact, I'm not even remotely close to being a fan of Gore... but I'm really starting to wonder about GW, and the effects of it.
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Yeah but spewing mess like he did when the past ten years has had multiple big snow storms is laughable.
 
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