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Pattern November Knock-Out

Well Sun/Mon after Thanksgiving still looking chilly according to 0z GFS so far. Dry and boring.
 
Arcc said:
Yeah but spewing mess like he did when the past ten years has had multiple big snow storms is laughable.
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Tarheel1 said:
Well Sun/Mon after Thanksgiving still looking chilly according to 0z GFS so far. Dry and boring.
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Perhaps there will be an ULL or disturbance not yet seen on the computer models. I try to tell myself that in times like these :)
 
Storm5 said:
Yep far more intense vs the two tropical systems that came through this year
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Yeah, that powerhouse front/low, is going to go up into Canada and form a pseudo-block, the pattern is about to get lit! We will see a wintry event between Dec 20th and Jan 5th!
 
Tarheel1 said:
Yeah, that powerhouse front/low, is going to go up into Canada and form a pseudo-block, the pattern is about to get lit! We will see a wintry event between Dec 20th and Jan 5th!
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we'll all be praying for that mythical SSW event to save winter by then....
 
Barrow Alaska started their ploar nights yesterday and now they will go without the sun until January 22nd . Holy hell!!!! They get a few brief hours of " brighter " conditions at twilight but the sun won't rise up there till January 22nd
 
Storm5 said:
Barrow Alaska started their ploar nights yesterday and now they will go without the sun until January 22nd . Holy hell!!!! They get a few brief hours of " brighter " conditions at twilight but the sun won't rise up there till January 22nd
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That would just be depressing...
Also still looks like a decent shot of cold air near end of the month but to me it looks transient (par for the course), gonna probably have to wait until mid-Dec to see if we can get a shot of sustained cold (more than a day or two) to hopefully get something wintry.
At least Thanksgiving looks seasonal
 
Storm5 said:
Barrow Alaska started their ploar nights yesterday and now they will go without the sun until January 22nd . Holy hell!!!! They get a few brief hours of " brighter " conditions at twilight but the sun won't rise up there till January 22nd
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Does that mean they will be colder until then?
 
If this verifies the radiational capital of Fl, aka Phil's backyard :), might have to deal with some frost....
ecmwf_t2m_se_204.png
 
metwannabe said:
If this verifies the radiational capital of Fl, aka Phil's backyard :), might have to deal with some frost....
ecmwf_t2m_se_204.png
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It'll be 10-15 degrees warmer at verification time! :(
Don't know why we thought this year was gonna be any different, wrg to strong cold showing in med/long range, only to not verify!
 
Also the drought continues.... Shane, Eric (Webb) I drove across Falls Lake yesterday and it looks low, very low.... was I seeing things or is it that bad?
20171114_Southeast_none.jpg
 
metwannabe said:
Also the drought continues.... Shane, Eric (Webb) I drove across Falls Lake yesterday and it looks low, very low.... was I seeing things or is it that bad?
20171114_Southeast_none.jpg
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It's that bad! Lake Hartwell on the GA/SC border, looks about 10-15 feet below normal!
 
NorthGaWinter4 said:
12z gfs is torchy
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The good news is that even IF the torchy 11-15 day 12Z GFS were to verify, days 1-10 overall are nearly the opposite with them being on the cool side of normal, thus completing a most pleasant Nov after what 3-4 weeks ago appeared headed to being warm. Also, the 12Z GEFS is only marginally above normal in the 11-15.
Aside: DT is predicting a fairly torchy Dec 1-15 in the SE, which is consistent with the 12Z GFS, but he has a much colder near to marginally below normal Dec 16-31. I'd take a torchy Dec 1-15 anytime if I can get a near to slightly below normal Dec 16-31!
 
Larry,
Triple "like" but only one will post! ... LOL
The forecast Larry refers to is in the Winter Discussion thread and is well worth a read.
Phil

PS - FWIW, the 12Z GFS is much cooler down here than the 6Z ...
 
ForsythSnow said:
It doesn't seem that way. The 2m temps actually give us a few freezes and highs at the most toward the end of the run are in the mid 60s for a day or two. The rest seems cool and seasonal. No upper 70s in sight for here.
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Also, it gives only pleasant low 70s down at KATL and only upper 70s for Phil and myself for just a couple of days (no 80s if it verified, which I can easily live with). So, even if solidly warmer than normal/torchy for a few days, who cares? That's quite normal! It isn't like that is the forecast for the rest of Dec. much less the forecast for the rest of winter. Also, the 10 days preceding this are cool overall.
 
The thing that concerns me is, just how warm the West is! We all know that'll come East at some point! The question is, how long! You know it's coming cause we are the only ones that can torch 4 months in a row! :(
 
pcbjr said:
Lucy Ricardo or someone, can you please do some splainin' to the Euro ...
ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_fh240-240.gif



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Take it verbatim, cause it's the only one that didn't forecast the Deep-Freeze Thanksgiving, and it's right! All hail the King
 
Tarheel1 said:
The thing that concerns me is, just how warm the West is! We all know that'll come East at some point! The question is, how long! You know it's coming cause we are the only ones that can torch 4 months in a row! :(
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That's why from a lifetime I preach that we don't want "winter" until mid-December; winter "typically" only lasts 6 weeks (if we get one to begin with); sure, there are exceptions, but with years upon my head ... I go with usual history (and if things are lining up right (not this year) , I figure history is re-writing itself) ... :confused:
 
Tarheel1 said:
The thing that concerns me is, just how warm the West is! We all know that'll come East at some point! The question is, how long! You know it's coming cause we are the only ones that can torch 4 months in a row! :(
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But I assume you'd agree that you really should want a warm west this winter overall due to that meaning western ridging/+PNA type blocking and downstream E US trough dominating. I like to see western US warmth in general, especially near the west coast.
 
pcbjr said:
That's why from a lifetime I preach that we don't want "winter" until mid-December; winter "typically" only lasts 6 weeks (if we get one to begin with); sure, there are exceptions, but with years upon my head ... I go with usual history (and if things are lining up right (not this year) , I figure history is re-writing itself) ... :confused:
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Yes, absent El Nino, you pretty rarely get more than 4 to maybe 6 week periods of cold domination even in overall cool DJFs because often the pattern needs to reset though on occasion you may get something like two 4 week periods during DJF.
 
going be honest.... a torch isnt a bad thing right now.... trough has been sitting just to far east to do us much good... its best now to waste this pattern now before the goods start in for late december and january and early february .... think thats what going to happen... see the trough start to back up towards the west some like central plains... that will carve out a big surface low pressure system in middle country and that will help to drag down the mother load of cold later and set the stage for some fun...
 
Made this MSLP/thickness (left) & 700 hPa specific humidity & wind (right) in ERA-20C to show the evolution of this historic winter storm in December 1930... The depth and strength of the CAD dome during this event was extremely unusual, to have a 1034 parent high over Virginia & get 1.5-2 feet of snow out of a CAD event (mind you that's about 2x as much wintry QPF (equivalent) vs even the December 2002 ice storm, that's something...
output_CiydWF.gif
 
GaWx said:
Yes, absent El Nino, you pretty rarely get more than 4 to maybe 6 week periods of cold domination even in overall cool DJFs because often the pattern needs to reset though on occasion you may get something like two 4 week periods during DJF.
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Yeah, we can't expect every winter (even a good one) to be like 1935-36 where for 10 weeks straight (minus a few days) temperatures remained below 60F here in much of central NC & it snowed several times, nearly evenly spaced out over a period of a few months...
 
tennessee storm said:
18 z gfs was a torch for mid and long range period...
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Good! About 2 weeks ago, we were going to be an Iceberg on Thanksgiving, now I'm going to be a bone-chilling 58-62!! :(
Brrrrrrrrr
 
Even after all this cool weather the past few weeks, we still haven't erased the impressive +temp anomalies during the first several days of the month...
ncep_cfsr_noram_t2m_anom.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Even after all this cool weather the past few weeks, we still haven't erased the impressive +temp anomalies during the first several days of
/QUOTE]
RDU is -2 for November and if I counted right been at or below normal 12 straight days. Prior to today being calculated in. Which was way BN
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Unless something changes a lot I think some of those areas will end up at an anomaly of right around normal for this month.
 
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