• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern November Knock-Out

As giddy as anyone here, but a word of advice - nothing is set in stone and looks will likely change a few times before we get to the Thanksgiving Holiday. Check out the 12Z Euro, for example. Hopefully things swing around and lock in a good manner for all, but just sayin' ... don't count chickens (or turkeys) quite yet ... :eek:
But it's quite OK to gobble a bit right now ... ;)
Respectfully,
The Curmudgeon
What is 12z Euro showing?
 
What is 12z Euro showing?
Not as deep as yesterday - model swings - cool but not as brutal. Still good, just not as pronounced.

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_fh240-240.gif


For comparison ... http://www.southernwx.com/community/threads/november-knock-out.283/page-16#post-53391
 
Those GFS maps look really strange with the new heat island factor for Atlanta. Even with that calculated one would assume the city will be colder than what is depicted. The map shows south GA as being colder so that doesn't look right.

Actually, I think that would be reasonable map because it is on an almost perfect radiational cooling night with a surface high overhead/calm winds/dry air/clear skies, when heat islands make the biggest difference for lows. In contrast, south GA rural locations and even SAV(a well inland airport) often radiate better during these kind of nights and allow them to have lows colder than downtown Atlanta and certainly ATL airport (KATL). They have SAV at 31, while they have downtown near 33...that's very believable. Where I don't think is cold enough is the radiational cooling capital of the ATL area, Peachtree City (KFFC), which they have only going down to 29 with a dewpoint in the teens. I'd expect them to get to near 25 and be near the coldest in GA. But that's way too microscale for the GFS. Another constant microscale related error: ATL airport (KATL), which is often the warmest in the state. They have KATL getting down to 29, which is the same as KFFC and KPDK ( in NE ATL burbs), because the heat island bubble being shown is just to their north in town. There's no way that relationship would verify. I could see KATL being, say, 34, KPDK being, say, 29, and KFFC being, say, 25 (and KSAV at 31).
 
Actually, I think that would be reasonable map because it is on an almost perfect radiational cooling night with a surface high overhead/calm winds/dry air/clear skies, when heat islands make the biggest difference for lows. In contrast, south GA rural locations and even SAV(a well inland airport) often radiate better during these kind of nights and allow them to have lows colder than downtown Atlanta and certainly ATL airport (KATL). They have SAV at 31, while they have downtown near 33...that's very believable. Where I don't think is cold enough is the radiational cooling capital of the ATL area, Peachtree City (KFFC), which they have only going down to 29 with a dewpoint in the teens. I'd expect them to get to near 25 and be near the coldest in GA. But that's way too microscale for the GFS. Another constant microscale related error: ATL airport (KATL), which is often the warmest in the state. They have KATL getting down to 29, which is the same as KFFC and KPDK ( in NE ATL burbs), because the heat island bubble being shown is just to their north in town. There's no way that relationship would verify. I could see KATL being, say, 34, KPDK being, say, 29, and KFFC being, say, 25 (and KSAV at 31).
While that makes sense I could see some scenarios where it will bust bad like with a wedge for example. Don't know if they adjusted for the CAD events or not?
 
While that makes sense I could see some scenarios where it will bust bad like with a wedge for example. Don't know if they adjusted for the CAD events or not?

If there's a wedge or any other windy setup, overcast skies, or high RH, no model should ever be showing a heat island bubble. During strong wedging, KATL/downtown is often just about as cold as anywhere nearby with pretty uniform temp.'s as you are implying.

To answer your question to some extent, look at the 12Z GFS hour 18's heat island bubble. That looks questionable due to a pretty decent east wind blowing then.
 
If there's a wedge or any other windy setup, overcast skies, or high RH, no model should ever be showing a heat island bubble. During strong wedging, KATL/downtown is often just about as cold as anywhere nearby with pretty uniform temp.'s as you are implying.

To answer your question to some extent, look at the 12Z GFS hour 18's heat island bubble. That looks questionable due to a pretty decent east wind blowing then.
Yeah that does look questionable. Will be nice to see temps bust too high for a change. Lol.
 
Link to a free site posted on amx and its the heat, so try it out. Has everymodel known to man and you can zoom right into your own backyard practically to see 850,500 temps, rh forecasted levels etc.

Weather.Us

Pretty cool site! Thanks for sharing!

It's going to get a lot better. Ryan Maue is involved, now.
 
I'm good with a late November/ early December wintry event! It could be 70 the rest of the winter, just to see snow on ground!
 
Back
Top