• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern November Knock-Out

SoutheastRidge said:
looks to me like parts of MS,AL, KY, and VA are above normal.
Click to expand...
Just tossed it out there for laughs, my friend - it's the Japanese model ... the very worst of them all ... get it?
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Edit:
Never mind - going to sleep ... humor isn't working today ... :confused:
But generally if you want a reasonably certain seasonal forecast, look at the Jamstec and go 100% or so in the other direction ...
 
Last edited:
NorthGaWinter4 said:
https://postimg.org/image/6jfusej6j/
WeeKlies OMG
Click to expand...
What actually happens:
weeklies.png
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
All on in this. I'll be in Lafayette, GA for Christmas so it'd be a nice White Christmas, round 2.

Seriously, considering the path we're on, I wonder if I really do see snow one of the times I'm in La Fayette next month, having nothing to do with this.
Click to expand...
Climo says no snow in La Fayette until maybe January.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Climo says no snow in La Fayette until maybe January.
Click to expand...

Hah I earned that for my saying that I've read somewhere that said most of the southeast, it's really only a short window for snow to happen and it's sometime from January to mid February. But it is rare, the last time I know it happened was 7 years ago and that may be a 1 in 10 thing or even longer with a major event.

I'm not even talking just Christmas. I'm going to look...
 
The crazy thing with 2010 if I remember right is that I remember my aunt telling me she'd make snowballs for me with an earlier event (that was minor, not significant) and then it snows on Christmas Day while I was there.
 
Here we go, 0z GFS is rolling out. I do think someone is going to get something (maybe a little, or something more) winter weather wise at some point after Thanksgiving.
 
Outside of 2010, there are some negligible events here and there in December but the biggest one is one you have to go back 10 years for to 2000.

And lol, "maybe never" is more true with Augusta than La Fayette. The odds in North Georgia with snow, I've found aren't that bad. I mean it's not exciting but with what I've researched I've found that if its not going to be a warm winter there may usually be at least one nickel and dime snow event.

And by North Georgia, I don't mean Atlanta, GA, especially the airport. Go further north.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Outside of 2010, there are some negligible events here and there in December but the biggest one is one you have to go back 10 years for to 2000.

And lol, "maybe never" is more true with Augusta than La Fayette. The odds in North Georgia with snow, I've found aren't that bad. I mean it's not exciting but with what I've researched I've found that if its not going to be a warm winter there may usually be at least one nickel and dime snow event.

And by North Georgia, I don't mean Atlanta, GA, especially the airport. Go further north.
Click to expand...
yeah, once you get above the north burbs of ATL your chances for at least a small event every winter go up dramatically. Esp in the mountains of N.Georgia. Here in CHA we've had four 5+ inch snow events in the past 8 winters. Pretty good roll actually. Several smaller 1-4 inch events as well.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Outside of 2010, there are some negligible events here and there in December but the biggest one is one you have to go back 10 years for to 2000.

And lol, "maybe never" is more true with Augusta than La Fayette. The odds in North Georgia with snow, I've found aren't that bad. I mean it's not exciting but with what I've researched I've found that if its not going to be a warm winter there may usually be at least one nickel and dime snow event.

And by North Georgia, I don't mean Atlanta, GA, especially the airport. Go further north.
Click to expand...
If you wanna see snow in Georgia, you're gonna have to head to the mountains where you have some elevation. Don't go to Gainesville, Canton, Rome, or La Fayette. You won't find snow there unless you get real lucky. Not much difference in snowfall between La Fayette and Augusta. La Fayette may average a couple or 3 inches while Augusta averages an inch or so. Both places are horrible for snow lovers.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
If you wanna see snow in Georgia, you're gonna have to head to the mountains where you have some elevation. Don't go to Gainesville, Canton, Rome, or La Fayette. You won't find snow there unless you get real lucky. Not much difference in snowfall between La Fayette and Augusta. La Fayette may average a couple or 3 inches while Augusta averages an inch or so. Both places are horrible for snow lovers.
Click to expand...
you're incorrect frankly.. there is a huge difference historically in snow frequency between La Fayette and Augusta.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
If you wanna see snow in Georgia, you're gonna have to head to the mountains where you have some elevation. Don't go to Gainesville, Canton, Rome, or La Fayette. You won't find snow there unless you get real lucky. Not much difference in snowfall between La Fayette and Augusta. La Fayette may average a couple or 3 inches while Augusta averages an inch or so. Both places are horrible for snow lovers.
Click to expand...

La Fayette usually gets what Chattanooga gets. Maybe not quite as major, but what Chattanooga gets, La Fayette gets. I can attest to that a bit from what I've researched, heard from family, and personally seen.

In Augusta it's boom or bust, in North Georgia it depends on what's going to happen for the whole winter.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
If you wanna see snow in Georgia, you're gonna have to head to the mountains where you have some elevation. Don't go to Gainesville, Canton, Rome, or La Fayette. You won't find snow there unless you get real lucky. Not much difference in snowfall between La Fayette and Augusta. La Fayette may average a couple or 3 inches while Augusta averages an inch or so. Both places are horrible for snow lovers.
Click to expand...
I’ve lived near Gainesville my entire life and i see at least one measurable snowfall a year.
 
whamby said:
you're incorrect frankly.. there is a huge difference historically in snow frequency between La Fayette and Augusta.
Click to expand...
When I say there's not much difference in snowfall between La Fayette and Augusta I mean there's only like a 2 or 3" difference in an average season. It's not like one city averages 100" and the other averages 5".

According to usclimatedata.com, La Fayette averages 2"
 
SoutheastRidge said:
When I say there's not much difference in snowfall between La Fayette and Augusta I mean there's only like a 2 or 3" difference in an average season. It's not like one city averages 100" and the other averages 5".

According to usclimatedata.com, La Fayette averages 2"
Click to expand...
2-3 inches is a lot in the southeast though lol. That is more than a lot of places get in a whole year!
 
I would like to experience just one lake effect snow event in the Tug Hill in upstate NY. That's on my bucket list. One place in that area recorded 77" in a 24 hour period in 1997. That's more snow than I've seen in my entire lifetime !
 
SoutheastRidge said:
When I say there's not much difference in snowfall between La Fayette and Augusta I mean there's only like a 2 or 3" difference in an average season. It's not like one city averages 100" and the other averages 5".

According to usclimatedata.com, La Fayette averages 2"
Click to expand...
we're talking about chances for a 2-3 inch snowfall historically... your chances are considerably greater seeing one in La Fayette every winter versus Augusta, Ga.. I would also not trust online stats for small towns like La Fayette.. I'm certain their historical average is closer to Chattanooga's 5.5. Some places show 3.9 for CHA but that's only 1981-2010 avg. The 5.5 is from 1870 to current.
 
There's some energy over the PAC NW after Thanksgiving, hopefully it will start digging deeper.
 
whamby said:
we're talking about chances for a 2-3 inch snowfall historically... your chances are considerably greater seeing one in La Fayette every winter versus Augusta, Ga.. I would also not trust online stats for small towns like La Fayette.. I'm certain their historical average is closer to Chattanooga's 5.5. Some places show 3.9 for CHA but that's only 1981-2010 avg. The 5.5 is from 1870 to current.
Click to expand...
I would think the 1981-2010 average would be more accurate. Seems like most places these days don't get as much snow as they did a long time ago. Nashville only averages 6" and I think they used to average closer to 10" or even more.
 
Ughh, not digging deep enough, northern stream at fault.
2ecbbbb393822db36466169d7a40f207.jpg


Sent from my SM-J327T1 using Tapatalk
 
Like here's an example comparison of La Fayette and Augusta (through KCHA and what I remember with Christmas 2010, 13/14, and 14/15, but there's no major station with La Fayette so I have no choice) starting from the winter of 09/10 through 16/17:

09/10: La Fayette: January 29th, 2010, February 12th, 2010, March 2nd, 2010.
Augusta: February 12th, 2010
Overall Total: The same, 8 inches, but with Augusta it was through boom/bust.
10/11: La Fayette: December 25th, 2010, January 10th, 2011, February 9th, 2011
Augusta: December 26th, 2010, January 10th, 2011, February 9th, 2011
Overall Total: La Fayette: 13 inches Augusta: 3 inches
11/12: Warm winter, so no surprise....
La Fayette: Trace. Maybe. (this is where there may be some difference in having to use KCHA)
Augusta: Nothing.
12/13: Another warm winter, so no surprise....
La Fayette: Nothing.
Augusta: Nothing.
13/14: La Fayette: January 28th, 2014, February 12-13th, 2014
Augusta: January 28th, 2014, February 12th 2014 (but this was all ice so I almost didn't put it at all)
La Fayette: 9 inches
Augusta: 3 inches
14/15: La Fayette: February 25th, 2015 and a few other nickel and dime events in February.
Augusta: 0 events
La Fayette: 7.5 inches
Augusta: 0 inches
15/16: Warm winter, soooo...
La Fayette: T
Augusta: T
16/17: Another warm winter but this time...
La Fayette: T
Augusta: 0

This was for the most part a pretty nice stretch for winter weather but in this stretch...

La Fayette: 5.4 inches
Augusta: 2 inches

La Fayette had 6 significant snow events in this stretch. Augusta had 2 and the 2 might even be stretching it, it might be 1.

It's not even getting into previous research where I found, even in horrible winters earlier that this area did sometimes get nickel and dime snow events (I'm not talking about recent horrible winters). It's better than Augusta. The northeast side, even outside of the mountains may even have better odds because sometimes the TN Valley hurts winter weather wise in Northwest Georgia. I have looked into it but not hard.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Like here's an example comparison of La Fayette and Augusta (through KCHA and what I remember with Christmas 2010, 13/14, and 14/15, but there's no major station with La Fayette so I have no choice) starting from the winter of 09/10 through 16/17:

09/10: La Fayette: January 29th, 2010, February 12th, 2010, March 2nd, 2010.
Augusta: February 12th, 2010
Overall Total: The same, 8 inches, but with Augusta it was through boom/bust.
10/11: La Fayette: December 25th, 2010, January 10th, 2011, February 9th, 2011
Augusta: December 26th, 2010, January 10th, 2011, February 9th, 2011
Overall Total: La Fayette: 13 inches Augusta: 3 inches
11/12: Warm winter, so no surprise....
La Fayette: Trace. Maybe. (this is where there may be some difference in having to use KCHA)
Augusta: Nothing.
12/13: Another warm winter, so no surprise....
La Fayette: Nothing.
Augusta: Nothing.
13/14: La Fayette: January 28th, 2014, February 12-13th, 2014
Augusta: January 28th, 2014, February 12th 2014 (but this was all ice so I almost didn't put it at all)
La Fayette: 9 inches
Augusta: 3 inches
14/15: La Fayette: February 25th, 2015 and a few other nickel and dime events in February.
Augusta: 0 events
La Fayette: 7.5 inches
Augusta: 0 inches
15/16: Warm winter, soooo...
La Fayette: T
Augusta: T
16/17: Another warm winter but this time...
La Fayette: T
Augusta: 0

This was for the most part a pretty nice stretch for winter weather but in this stretch...

La Fayette: 5.4 inches
Augusta: 2 inches

La Fayette had 6 significant snow events in this stretch. Augusta had 2 and the 2 might even be stretching it, it might be 1.

It's not even getting into previous research where I found, even in horrible winters earlier that this area did sometimes get nickel and dime snow events (I'm not talking about recent horrible winters). It's better than Augusta. The northeast side, even outside of the mountains may even have better odds because sometimes the TN Valley hurts winter weather wise in Northwest Georgia. I have looked into it but not hard.
Click to expand...
Generally speaking this is true.. most CHA significant snows effect LaFayette as well.. it's only 60 miles south of us. There have been a few times they got more than CHA. I would think you could find some good record keeping for Dalton though, and they would be pretty close to LaFayette also.
 
Also, just to make it clear...

I'm not discrediting 1/10/11 as a winter storm in Augusta. It just wasn't really a significant snow. It was 2 inches then switch to sleet and freezing rain the rest of the way. Major winter storm yes, significant snow, honestly not really.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Also, just to make it clear...

I'm not discrediting 1/10/11 as a winter storm in Augusta. It just wasn't really a significant snow. It was 2 inches then switch to sleet and freezing rain the rest of the way. Major winter storm yes, significant snow, honestly not really.
Click to expand...
Anything more than a dusting is significant in Augusta lmao.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Anything more than a dusting is significant in Augusta lmao.
Click to expand...

It's just not for me. I consider 1/10/11 significant due to the ice and 1/28/14 significant because since it was really cold that winter they had the same issues as everyone else from a little snow. I guess if you want to talk significant winter storms, then you can add all three of 1/10/11, 1/28/14, and 2/12/14 back in and then it is close with significant winter storms but my point still stands...your best chance at getting big storms even in good years is north of Atlanta in Georgia, your best chance at all snow even in widespread winter storms is north of Atlanta, the most nickel and dime events come north of Atlanta.

Maybe I should say big snow instead of significant. Big for the south for me isn't 2+, it's 3+. It's being picky though.
 
Yeah, don't bother with the 00z GFS, core of cold stays locked in Canada in the post 10 day range... CFS weeklies pretty dismal after Thanksgiving.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top