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Pattern November Knock-Out

Storm5 said:
Man the 12z Euro says I can keep the golf clubs out!!!
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Yup, I just seen that, low is just revolving in the Gulf. That SW trough needs to dig deeper. No cold air to work with on 12z Euro, however if that SW trough digs deeper it *may get interesting.
 
accu35 said:
Crazy how ppl go bazaar over run to run modeling, LOL!!
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Especially since the chance of snow is so low this time of the year no matter what pattern we are in. I guess I’ve learned over the years to not even think about a decent snow until late December and most likely early January. The Last few years have just really put everyone on edge due to the fear of another hot and snowless winter. Hopefully this winter will bring snow in December! We are due for it as the last time was 2010
 
olhausen said:
Especially since the chance of snow is so low this time of the year no matter what pattern we are in. I guess I’ve learned over the years to not even think about a decent snow until late December and most likely early January. The Last few years have just really put everyone on edge due to the fear of another hot and snowless winter. Hopefully this winter will bring snow in December! We are due for it as the last time was 2010
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My biggest fear is not a warm and snowless winter, but a cold winter where everyone else feasts on ice and snow storms while our area sits under the frustrating "snow dome" or "snow hole" ala 2013-14
 
Imagine that! Seasonal at best! Nice way to kick off the cold chasing! :(
I'm sure it shows frigid air coming down at 384, and massive blocking signal! We are awesome in the way we get blocking and stay seasonal or above! Good times
 
The probability of warmth keeps creeping eastward ...

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Bad way to end the day after such a positive start this morning.
But then, tomorrow could ... :confused:
 
Late to the party because I had other obligations but the 12z GFS looked pretty good even before 'funnyland'. (Used meteostar to see this old run)
 
This is too much for a simple mind to comprehend at 4:30 PM after a 13 hour day; I need an expert witness ...
 
pcbjr said:
This is too much for a simple mind to comprehend at 4:30 PM after a 13 hour day; I need an expert witness ...
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Yeah, no comprende? Seems to me that the polar vortex flipping to Siberia from North America, would be a very bad thing for cold across the US!?
 
Tarheel1 said:
Yeah, no comprende? Seems to me that the polar vortex flipping to Siberia from North America, would be a very bad thing for cold across the US!?
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????? I just PM'd Webb and asked if he'd be so kind as to explain on the Board in terms that a simple mind like me might grasp. Hopefully he'll accommodate.

Its all that blue at 50 mb after the flip that has me perplexed
 
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Here today, gone tomorrow. Thats our theme of the year, Sad.
 
Looks like we may be zeroing in on what we're going to see Thanksgiving and while not super cold, it's similar to what this week has been around the SE.
 
Meh, not too bad of a look. Too much northern stream.

Edit: & it needs to be colder.
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WeatherWatch said:
Meh, not too bad of a look. Too much northern stream.

Edit: & it needs to be colder.
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If the cold could push little deeper and faster, that would get interesting
 
ForsythSnow said:
Exactly. It happens every year. We really should get worried if it looks bad in February, not November. I'm just glad it feels seasonal and not 80 degrees out.
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Your right, alot of times we "me" especially will get caught up in the moment, that i forget how early we are in fall and only still in November. We normally dont seeing our winterstrom threats until sometime in December into Jan/Feb. Like you said earlier, anything now is a bonus
 
I bet if a northerner browsed through this forum they would die laughing. I mean, this is the south and theres a good chance there will be no snow at all this winter. Those of us in GA and AL have no business ever getting our hopes up regarding snow.
 
It'd be our luck that this would be the time a 384 hour map verified....LMAO.

But really I'm not even looking for storms at this moment. I'm just looking for the real warmth to stay away and I'd be OK if we teetered around average...as they always say a piece of apple (cake) a day, keeps the heat way. :D
 
On the 18z GFS, I like how that trough is coming down into the four corners. The trough just needs to dig deeper. On today's 12z Euro, it had the trough coming into the four corners also, but not digging deep.
 
WeatherWatch said:
On the 18z GFS, I like how that trough is coming down into the four corners. The trough just needs to dig deeper. On today's 12z Euro, it had the trough coming into the four corners also, but not digging deep.
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If your talking about next weekend system, yeah that could have little potential if the trough would dig some more. But hey its only November, plenty time to go
 
SoutheastRidge said:
I bet if a northerner browsed through this forum they would die laughing. I mean, this is the south and theres a good chance there will be no snow at all this winter. Those of us in GA and AL have no business ever getting our hopes up regarding snow.
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Lol, and theres a good chance we could get a snowstorm as well. This is the south, one day warm next BOOM. Thats how we work fown here, one extreme to the next:)
 
SoutheastRidge said:
I bet if a northerner browsed through this forum they would die laughing. I mean, this is the south and theres a good chance there will be no snow at all this winter. Those of us in GA and AL have no business ever getting our hopes up regarding snow.
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I miss the 1980s, when we used to get a good snow, sometimes two, almost every winter. Back then snow in this region wasn't such a reach. Thanks Global Warming!
 
cd2play said:
I miss the 1980s, when we used to get a good snow, sometimes two, almost every winter. Back then snow in this region wasn't such a reach. Thanks Global Warming!
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Leaving GW out of the equation, have you gone back and seen whether there were other periods with little snow (like for example a good portion of the 1960's in RAH)? Just wondering ...
 
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accu35 said:
If your talking about next weekend system, yeah that could have little potential if the trough would dig some more. But hey its only November, plenty time to go
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Yes, I'm talking about that system that's been showing on the models after Thanksgiving for the most part. As of now, the pattern is in between of good,meh, and not so good for winter weather across the east.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
I bet if a northerner browsed through this forum they would die laughing. I mean, this is the south and theres a good chance there will be no snow at all this winter. Those of us in GA and AL have no business ever getting our hopes up regarding snow.
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Lmao. Live a little sheesh. Hope is ALL we have. :)
 
SoutheastRidge said:
I bet if a northerner browsed through this forum they would die laughing. I mean, this is the south and theres a good chance there will be no snow at all this winter. Those of us in GA and AL have no business ever getting our hopes up regarding snow.
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they also die laughing when we shut down over an inch of snow :p
 
cd2play said:
I miss the 1980s, when we used to get a good snow, sometimes two, almost every winter. Back then snow in this region wasn't such a reach. Thanks Global Warming!
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Just be thankful you're not 200 miles further south. The I-20 corridor is no longer in play most winters due to warmer winters. Almost 4 years with little to no snow in Atlanta. Up until about 2002, I had at least a dusting of snow every winter. Now, a dusting would take almost a miracle. The snow line, or the line where it usually snows every year keeps creeping northward every year. I imagine in 20 years it will be very difficult to get snow along the I-40 corridor.
 
Looking at today's 12z ensembles (GEFS, EPS, GEPS) they all are in good agreement with developing heights/blocking over and West of Greenland, heights out West and Troughing in the East in the 6 to 10 day period. Beyond that into the 11 to 16 day range GEFS/GEPS both contiunue to show hints of heights over greenland with ridging out West and trough somewhere in East as we go into December. That's about as much as we can ask for right now as we are only just approaching Thanksgiving. Hopefully the blocking signals showing up so far will be a repeating occurance later into Dec/Jan. Latest AO forecast to drop around -4 over next few days before going back towards neutral.
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