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Pattern November Knock-Out

StoneMtnWx said:
Looks like long period of Greenland blocking and keeps the trough in east and ridgingout west. 18z GFS had a lot of that in place too.
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Yep, it literally has below normal temps in the east from hour 72 through the end of the run . Also , as you mentioned it holds blocking throughout the run

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metwannabe said:
First GFS fantasy storm yields first GFS fail.... color me surprised. Expect the worst (torch), hope for just a little better than worst, ride the Euro to the finish and IF you end up with winter weather be truly surprised, thankful and savor every second of it. Whatever the weather enjoy life my friends.
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LMBO! Who pissed in your cornflakes this morning


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StoneMtnWx said:
Looks like long period of Greenland blocking and keeps the trough in east and ridgingout west. 18z GFS had a lot of that in place too.
abeeaf0dcb9a02cd71b78095ff436b5a.jpg
44408377e1814023ea56e3207b3617ed.jpg


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Miss me boys!


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It's a broken , year end and year out. we look to one place. We get wild model runs and we get models that don't agree. It all falls back to how each model handles the Pacific. The Euro and gfs are worlds apart with regards to how they handle the Pacific pattern. Until that gets sorted out models will continue to spit out unrealistic solutions and continue to be worlds apart .

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Wish I knew how to post pics from my phone, saw a met on twitter post a graphic from that earlier runs of the GPS and EURO, said it was the difference in Minneapolis between -6 record cold (GPS) and 55 record high (euro).
 
Watch 6z in the morning throw us another storm, LOL!!!
 
whatalife said:
So how did the overnight runs look?


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I'd comment but it may be mistaken for someone having pissed in my corn flakes or eating grape nuts or too early for this attitude.... so I'll not opine

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Webberweather53 said:
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That sounds like a good sign. And for everyone already freaking out about storms or not, it's November. Anything at this this time of year is just bonus until January or December really.Until something realistic and consistent shows up its all fantasy, so let's have fun with those for now.
 
ForsythSnow said:
That sounds like a good sign. And for everyone already freaking out about storms or not, it's November. Anything at this this time of year is just bonus until January or December really.Until something realistic and consistent shows up its all fantasy, so let's have fun with those for now.
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FS,
Welcome to the chorus!
Phil
 
ForsythSnow said:
That sounds like a good sign. And for everyone already freaking out about storms or not, it's November. Anything at this this time of year is just bonus until January or December really.Until something realistic and consistent shows up its all fantasy, so let's have fun with those for now.
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THIS^^^


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The 0z was boring but at least around average, 6z was the first time it threw really warm temps in a while, and webb gives me hope that none of this really matters in the end.
 
Webberweather53 said:
EPS looks very NINO-like near the very tail end of the month w/ a big vortex over the Aleutians, ridging out west... and troughing underneath over the SE US and eastern seaboard...
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As long as that warmer pool stays off west coast of Mexico, it handicaps the cooler water futher west (nina) normal effects downstream in the NH. Disrupts the ability for a west coast trough to position itself where it normally would and you end up with higher pressures that location.get a nino background.

Here in Greensboro and raleigh we are -1 to -2 below for the month of November and all but guranteed to come in BN for the month. Been atleast 9-10 days in a row BN at Greensboro.
 
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seems to me to the east of the west coast of mexico is mexico NOT water and further east is the gulf of mexico.....
 
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Heres what I was referncing. cold pool is at equator SH, but the warm pool up against mexico coast is promoting ridging as oppossed to troughiness on west coast.
 
NCSNOW said:
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Heres what I was referncing. cold pool is at equator SH, but the warm pool up against mexico coast is promoting ridging as oppossed to troughiness on west coast.
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The extremely anomalous equatorial warming that's occurring just off the equator in the Pacific is contributing to the expanding Hadley Cell, and is certainly not hurting these brief NINO-esque respites in a large-scale sense, because the warm water changes the diabatic heating budget directly over these regions ultimately impacting the placement, intensity, and movement of Rossby Waves downstream in the mid latitudes. The warm water in the subtropical N Pacific is essentially a lower frequency "scar" or imprint if you will that was left by the most recent super El Nino. Similar changes in SST were observed in the subtropical Pacific after the 1997-98 Super event but not to this magnitude and that may be due in part to AGW and the fact that the most recent NINO lasted much longer while being of comparable intensity...

You can clearly see in this equatorial pacific SST hovmoller below how much the subtropical eastern pacific sticks out like a sore thumb after the big NINO event. This warm anomaly is not adequately captured in any analog package and I've yet to see few, if any mention, much less explain what this actually can do to their seasonal winter outlooks, but is certainly an important dynamical adjustment that forecasters should make imo.
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AGW is throwing a wrench into a lot of things because we don’t understand all the effects.


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