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Pattern November Knock-Out

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Nice wedge building in
 
Mr. Golf said:
SD, what's ur thought on the long range with potential high latitude blocking developing in future?
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The Aleutian and Eurasian blocks are legit and will probably be around in some form through the cold season unfortunately they aren't really that positive for us. They do however favor a cold Canada and above normal snow cover for north America which could pay off for us at some point. I have my suspicions the -NAO on the models is real, I think, the elusive -NAO on the models is always met with skepticism so I have a hard time really getting pumped about it. If it materializes it would certainly make things around Thanksgiving interesting possibly into early December.
 
SD said:
The Aleutian and Eurasian blocks are legit and will probably be around in some form through the cold season unfortunately they aren't really that positive for us. They do however favor a cold Canada and above normal snow cover for north America which could pay off for us at some point. I have my suspicions the -NAO on the models is real, I think, the elusive -NAO on the models is always met with skepticism so I have a hard time really getting pumped about it. If it materializes it would certainly make things around Thanksgiving interesting possibly into early December.
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SD, one more thing. When will you put more stock into a true -NAO? What's your normal guideline for that? I think with an east based niña and -qbo descending through the 50mb level, it should be fairly interesting this winter IMO.
 
Geez..more records for ATL & Athens.
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Gonna be another warm one here too. I'm ok with that if it means we flip it later this month and into December
 
Mr. Golf said:
SD, one more thing. When will you put more stock into a true -NAO? What's your normal guideline for that? I think with an east based niña and -qbo descending through the 50mb level, it should be fairly interesting this winter IMO.
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Not trying to be funny but when it's in place or close. We have seen quite a few decent precursors to a -NAO only to see it fail miserably in recent years.
 
Gonna be a cold and wet day here. Good thing nothing lasts forever, even cold November rain.
 
pcbjr said:
And purely for whatever consideration anyone feels appropriate (or to the converse, inappropriate) ... https://www.wxrisk.com/more-hints-reasons-why-i-am-skeptical-of-mild-la-nina-winter-narrative/
But, we have to study all sides of the cue ball (que - pick your spelling) or you end up in the side pocket ... :confused:
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Thanks, Phil. There's reason to believe this winter will very likely come in much colder than last and at least be much closer to normal based merely on stats.

Now, regarding DT's recent record, one should keep in mind that DT's forecast last winter came in much too cold as he had each of D, J, and F average between colder than normal and near normal for much of the E US and that had similar ENSO a year ago today:

https://www.wxrisk.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/finalshort.pdf
 
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GaWx said:
I don't keep track of it outside of when he shows it but have been assuming he cherry picks the coldest/snowiest runs. But i also believe it is a cold biased model based on some way out there extreme cold runs in past years that have had ridiculous things like practically an entire month under 32 for highs at KATL, which is way colder than any month on record there! It has to be cold biased with runs like that. Add in his assumed cherry picking of an already cold biased model and he can have so much fun with the Brazilian.
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I've waited for a below 32 month all my life, lol. Another Maunder minimum, please!! You pull one of those off in July, and it's probably snow city...although the afternoon thunderstorms might have some trouble forming in 32 degree weather, lol, but I've seen thunder snow, so I know it's possible. Sounds to me like we need a space program for weather analytics, and get some models where the mostly impossible is rare. Like the 0 line in Cuba, telling us it might get to freezing in Perry. That's too much having to read into something that cost a lot to produce :) T
 
dsaur said:
I've waited for a below 32 month all my life, lol. Another Maunder minimum, please!! You pull one of those off in July, and it's probably snow city...although the afternoon thunderstorms might have some trouble forming in 32 degree weather, lol, but I've seen thunder snow, so I know it's possible. Sounds to me like we need a space program for weather analytics, and get some models where the mostly impossible is rare. Like the 0 line in Cuba, telling us it might get to freezing in Perry. That's too much having to read into something that cost a lot to produce :) T
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Being from Ohio, and have worked in -15+ degree (that's without windchill) enviroments. A below 32 month just doesn't sound fun. At all. I am all for the snow down here, good times are had by all.
 
As October left, October was warmer and wetter than average.
(From NOAA)
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MMoore4720 said:
Being from Ohio, and have worked in -15+ degree (that's without windchill) enviroments. A below 32 month just doesn't sound fun. At all. I am all for the snow down here, good times are had by all.
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I like brief bouts of cold weather. I would imagine that living in a place where it stays cold for months at a time would eventually wear on you and make you hate the cold.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
I like brief bouts of cold weather. I would imagine that living in a place where it stays cold for months at a time would eventually wear on you and make you hate the cold.
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Same with snow I think. Its why while I think about moving north I always come back to "well up north snow isnt that fun" lol. You go to work/school unless its some huge historic blizzard.
 
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