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Pattern November Knock-Out

GaWx said:
JB tweeted about what the Brazilian model is showing for winter, which of course is wintry (when is it not?/cold bias). I notice that his recent tweets aren't suggesting anything about warmth this winter, including what he showed Joe D'Aleo is saying. I wish JB had credibility for being objective instead of being cold biased in winter. :(
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Lol have you actually kept track of each run change on that before? It changes so frequently and is so cherry picked its hilarious.
 
Storm5 said:
Holy hell the blocking showing up on the ensembles as we roll towards mid month . Looks somewhat sustainable, not a brief 2-3 day block
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Maybe we will get an early storm later this month, which would be interesting, but I don't know if it would be cold enough for one. It would fuel the hype trains and winter cancel trains too I bet.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Lol have you actually kept track of each run change on that before? It changes so frequently and is so cherry picked its hilarious.
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I don't keep track of it outside of when he shows it but have been assuming he cherry picks the coldest/snowiest runs. But i also believe it is a cold biased model based on some way out there extreme cold runs in past years that have had ridiculous things like practically an entire month under 32 for highs at KATL, which is way colder than any month on record there! It has to be cold biased with runs like that. Add in his assumed cherry picking of an already cold biased model and he can have so much fun with the Brazilian.
 
Tarheel1 said:
I think it'll come down to timing. GSP boys saying Sunday night arrival of precip at the earliest, othe models saying Monday. It is looking like a very cold weekend for a lot of people, for sure
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I don't know if i'd call low to mid 60s very cold for November. That's the forecast for Birmingham this weekend !
 
SoutheastRidge said:
I don't know if i'd call low to mid 60s very cold for November. That's the forecast for Birmingham this weekend !
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Like 14 times a year, Birmingham is not in the typical CAD areas!! Aleet! Aleet ! Pay attention
 
Webberweather53 said:
The CAD high is intensifying yet again on the past few euro runs. A 1036 over New England at this time of the year is pretty nuts. I'm really starting to think that someone in central NC will at least see freezing drizzle or light freezing rain this weekend...
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Doesn't quite make it to B'ham, maybe next time! :)
 
Those CAD events are really made for places to the east of me, so im more excited and hoping for a really cold substantial air mass end of month into December, to get our chances here in Alabama.
 
New 8-14 day outlook from NOAA

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WeatherWatch said:
New 8-14 day outlook from NOAA

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Versus ...

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There's going to be some model wars and model disagreements going forward into this month. Which solution gets "November Knocked-out"? We'll see! *
One thing I'd really like to say, though, is despite differing outlooks and opinions, today has been an absolutely stellar day for discussion and observation here. :D
Thanks, Folks! ;)
Best!
Phil

* I have my theories, but based on my success last year, if I were a gambler, all my money would go against what I think at this point in time ... LOL ... :eek:
 
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Tarheel1 said:
Like 14 times a year, Birmingham is not in the typical CAD areas!! Aleet! Aleet ! Pay attention
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Yep! Heck I forgot the temp differential but I remember with an ice storm quite a while ago (January 2004), I remember even just looking at the Atlanta temps comparing to here it was quite different. When it comes to CAD you can toss anything typical out the window.

(in fact, I'll go look that up, as it's an interesting difference)
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Yep! Heck I forgot the temp differential but I remember with an ice storm quite a while ago (January 2004), I remember even just looking at the Atlanta temps comparing to here it was quite different. When it comes to CAD you can toss anything typical out the window.

(in fact, I'll go look that up, as it's an interesting difference)
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I think you mean January 2005. The CAD was very strong and there was a bad ice storm well into Alabama.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
I think you mean January 2005. The CAD was very strong and there was a bad ice storm well into Alabama.
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No, I truly do mean January 2004. I'm talking about a different CAD event that completely missed Atlanta and only affected northeast and far east Georgia.

And I was wrong. My comp was likely Birmingham. Atlanta was cold in this case but had very little precip.
 
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