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Pattern November Knock-Out

SD said:
Sign me up buttercup
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After last year I am loathe to get my hopes up this soon in the game, but those model runs are absolutely

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GaWx said:
The GEFS is predicting a sub -3 AO in a few days. That has happened in about 20% of Novembers since 1950. Here are the other Novembers with a day or more of sub -3:

2010, 2002, 2000, 1998, 1985, 1984, 1972, 1968, 1965, 1962, 1959, 1955, 1952, 1950

After throwing out El Ninos and warm neutral, we're left with these 8: 2010, 2000, 1998, 1985, 1984, 1962, 1955, 1950
Of these 8 Decembers in the SE US, 5 were very cold (2010, 2000, 1985, 1962, 1950), one was cool (1955), and 2 were quite warm (1998, 1984).

Of these 8, the closest ENSOwise to 2017 appear to be these: 2000, 1984, and 1950
Of these 3 Decembers, two were very cold (2000 and 1950) and 1 was quite warm (1984).

Conclusion: For cold 3.4 ENSO, there appears to be a small correlation between a November with a day or more of -3 AO and a quite cold Dec. in the SE US. I think it is safe to hypothesize this small correlation because the only other very cold SE Dec. with cold ENSO was 1983 and even it had a -2.510 AO day in Nov. Here's hoping.
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Good research Larry. I am looking forward to the next few weeks. It's been a while since we have had such a good blocking signal.
 
LR GFS FWIW is still looking great going into Thanksgiving and after. Strong blocking continues to show up and it's real close to a phased system on the 28th...
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look chilly, slightly BN to me.. we'll see how that 'mega-block' works out after Thanksgiving. They call it voodoo country for a reason.
 
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Pretty darn close, if that low came little north. End of run COLD!!!
 
06z GFS trying to catch on what the Euro was showing I see with placing a low to the south. From that run this morning of the GFS, that looks like it may turn out to be an over running event. A low comes up along the front. As always, we'll see how it plays out.


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Good to see gulf lows and cold air around hopefully setting the trend for winter. Snow in December seems like a much more likely scenario than November for sure.
 
La Nina's can be very front loaded in some years and just plain ugly in some. I would love to see the SST charts for those years and look at the Pacific placement of the coldest water (relative to the averages) as a good metric to look and see what if any difference it makes with this type of weak La Nina
 
RollTide18 said:
Would love another December like 2010.
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Me too. It's been years since we have had a cold December. I remember one year it was so cold it snowed about a couple weeks before Christmas and was still on the ground in some places Christmas morning. We are way overdue.
 
GaStorm said:
I bet a good portion of the SE will see snow by next month if the trends keep up. Cold rain is part of a colder pattern so there will probably be some days like that as well.
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Also, good chance as the cold blast comes through shortly after thanksgiving, we could see a storm somewhere end of month or beginning of December.
 
Not saying anything new, but the short term trend continues ...

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Just hoping that it doesn't all erode once winter actually gets here ...
 
whatalife said:
We’ll be breaking out the suntan lotion by January 1st


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Barring something unusual, I'd definitely say by Jan 20th, realistically; things upstream could surprise us, but if one looks at history and at the current setup, those are not the odds, at least IMHO (though I just watched a video from DT the other day that suggests quite the contrary).
 
Way to ruin the vibe in this thread whatalife. Thanks lol
 
pcbjr said:
Realism is a virtue ... o_O
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Yeah it seems there is always a warm model in there somewhere. Just as long as there are several others showing cold and we are actually starting a trend we should be good.
 
GaStorm said:
Yeah it seems there is always a warm model in there somewhere. Just as long as there are several others showing cold and we are actually starting a trend we should be good.
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There are several if not most models showing cold for the next 10 - 14 days, no doubt, and realistically that should pan out; after that, it makes no sense to put much stock in any long range model. Rather, look at the dynamics and see what the setup has done in the past, and make an educated guess going way out. Historically, with this set up, cold is not a season long thing (of course there are exceptions and I'm hoping that this year is one; Lord knows, we need it, but ...)
 
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GaStorm said:
Yeah it seems there is always a warm model in there somewhere. Just as long as there are several others showing cold and we are actually starting a trend we should be good.
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Just as there is always a warm model, there will always be 2 or 3 people chomping at the bit to post them , along with the only model showing rain! :(
 
Holy wow at the frigid airmass coming down from W Canada on the 12Z GFS. Let's see how far SE the bulk of it gets in the US.
 
GaWx said:
Holy wow at the frigid airmass coming down from W Canada on the 12Z GFS. Let's see how far SE the bulk of it gets in the US.
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I was just looking at that. Ridge out West further to West and more sharper that 0z run when compared to same hour.
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Yeah if that actually holds I'm driving somewhere to see the snow. Lol.
 
is something wrong with this gfs run? it has frigid temps here low temps ive never seen before in november
 
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