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Pattern November Knock-Out

For the SE US: The 12Z GFS 6-10, which is near normal, is a little warmer in the 6-10 day period vs prior runs and the 11-15, which is an actual torch, is way warmer than was the 6Z GFS 11-15 as well as somewhat warmer than the 0Z and 18Z runs.
 
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GaWx said:
For the SE US: The 12Z GFS 6-10, which is near normal, is a little warmer in the 6-10 day period vs prior runs and the 11-15, which is an actual torch, is way warmer than was the 6Z GFS 11-15 as well as somewhat warmer than the 0Z and 18Z runs.
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I'm actually ok with this right now and at least it still wasn't a blistering torch

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GaWx said:
For the SE US: The 12Z GFS 6-10, which is near normal, is a little warmer in the 6-10 day period vs prior runs and the 11-15, which is an actual torch, is way warmer than was the 6Z GFS 11-15 as well as somewhat warmer than the 0Z and 18Z runs.
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Shocking! After the cold run yesterday!
 
The AO is way negative and only predicted to go neutral by the first week of December. After that it appears to be going negative again and I wouldn't be surprised to see it go way negative the further into next month we get.
 
ForsythSnow said:
And here we are in late November freaking out about some 60s and upper 30s for early December... I'm enjoying what we have and glad we aren't really torching with 70s and 80s up here.
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70s today and tomorrow in parts of GA. Sounds like torching to me in Late November !
 
GaWx said:
I am but you don't hear me complaining about it. By the way, our normal high for today is 69. So, mid 70s is far from a torch.
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Yeah I figured down where you are would be 70s. Makes no sense to say it's a torch when last year at this time was probably a good 10 degrees warmer.
 
GaStorm said:
Yeah I figured down where you are would be 70s. Makes no sense to say it's a torch when last year at this time was probably a good 10 degrees warmer.
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Yes, indeed. Last November had 2 days of 79 iin ATL and 4 days of low 80s in SAV n the last half of the month. Nothing like that so far this late November.
 
Are people forgetting that torching is, even after the past two Decembers? We had to put our air on in Greensboro/High Point, NC for several days for Christmas 2015. It almost felt like we lived in Orlando again (where it was in the upper 80s on Christmas). It is 63 right now at KATL. I will take that two days before Thanksgiving without complaint.

pcbjr said:
For goodness sake; this is not an 80º Christmas Eve and azaleas are not blooming ... :rolleyes:
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SnowE73 said:
Are people forgetting that torching is, even after the past two Decembers? We had to put our air on in Greensboro/High Point, NC for several days for Christmas 2015. It almost felt like we lived in Orlando again (where it was in the upper 80s on Christmas). It is 63 right now at KATL. I will take that two days before Thanksgiving without complaint.
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You moved from NC to GA ? That sucks if you're a winter weather fan :(
 
Well after looking at the euro the once advertised arctic airmass near end of the month is certainly not looking as promising. I almost hate to post this, seeing as some will surely spin this as model fail, winter cancel, torching, etc etc.... it's still not bad at all headed into Dec. Seems some forget easily and have different opinions about a torch not to mention have a difficult time seeing things outside of their bubble.

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metwannabe said:
Seems some forget easily and have different opinions about a torch not to mention have a difficult time seeing things outside of their bubble.
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Yep. People think a torch begins at a hair above average, while to me a torch is 5 or more degrees above average for longer than 7 days averaged. Today feels like a good fall day with some warmth to it. As I said, we are looking good for now. We just had a major freeze here. Only worry I have is lack of precip. Looks very dry ahead except FL.
gfs_apcpn_seus_39.png
 
ForsythSnow said:
Yep. People think a torch begins at a hair above average, while to me a torch is 5 or more degrees above average for longer than 7 days averaged. Today feels like a good fall day with some warmth to it. As I said, we are looking good for now. We just had a major freeze here. Only worry I have is lack of precip. Looks very dry ahead except FL.
gfs_apcpn_seus_39.png
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Agreed, of course I've seen numerous frost/freezes already, frankly the older I get the easier it is for me to tire of defrosting the truck before I head to work in the mornings. But agreed been a great fall thus far and beats sweating to death

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metwannabe said:
So what gives Eric, are the forecasted indicies wrong or are we in a time where they don't matter or is this going to be a super anomalous pattern?
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Here's my take fwiw:

1. The AO and NAO are being forecasted in the 11-15 day period by the 0Z GEFS mean to be only slightly negative and the PNA only a little +. So, none of these is really a cold signal....more of a near normal signal for the E US imo.

2. The 0Z GEFS, which is what predicted those indices, indeed, has the E US near normal for days 11-15...certainly no torch on that run.

Edit: I still say look out below by no later than mid Dec if the QBO-ENSO-Nov AO analogs have any say..so a little after the 11-15 day period.
 
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tennessee storm said:
Lol. 12z gfs wasn’t seasonal
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You must be looking at a different model then the rest of us because the one I just looked at showed 10 days of below normal temps vs 4 days that were basically at normal or just a tick above. I’ll admit that we haven’t been insanely below normal but we have been slightly below normal for most of November. This is of course based on my observations of my own backyard.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
You moved from NC to GA ? That sucks if you're a winter weather fan :(
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I know, but I used to live in Orlando so it can only be better than that.

When I moved from Orlando to Raleigh in 2010 I thought I was in heaven that winter. My boss told me it doesn't normally snow that much there, as I would find I out over the next few years. It was quite apparent Raleigh is the sleet capital of the country. We got a lot more snow when we were living in the Triad. I will miss that.
 
From MDA wx for the verified period from November 1-19:

"While both GFS and Euro ensembles had similar mean absolute error, the GFS Ens has carried the lowest bias. The Euro has averaged its 15 Day forecast too warm by a large 22.1 GWHDDs, while the GFS Ens has also been too warm but only by 7.4 GWHDDs."

Translation: the EPS needs to be cooled much more than does the GEFS to negate the warm bias of each.
 
"I" is the most overused word in the English language. However, here's more overuse - I wish folks would calm down and enjoy a true fall for a change; I wish for a real winter coming up, but I wish equally for a bit of serenity in the reactions to a model run or two ...
Your Curmudgeon
 
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