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Wintry Winter 2018-19 Discussion

GaWx said:
For those curious if any of these were major at KATL (3.5"+ is my requirement for snow), several were:
- 1/23-4/1940: 8.3" (10" downtown), near the biggest on record downtown; biggest single ATL area snowstorm in general since the big one of 1/1893; this lead to snowcover that remained for perhaps the longest on record; 9.8" Athens
- 3/2-3/1942: barely cold enough with 3.7" from 2.13" liquid equiv..so a very wet snow with mixing with rain at times I think; Athens had only 1.0" despite 1.71" liquid equiv;
- 1/22-23/1987: barely cold enough with 3.6" S/IP from 1.14" liquid equiv. but tight NW/SE gradient with mainly heavy rain and flash flooding in SE metro ATL at least early on; near 5" S/IP NE Atlanta; 7.1" Athens from 1.45" liq equiv
- 2/25/2015: tight N/S gradient with only T at KATL but major just 40 miles N of KATL; 5.2" Rome and 7-10" far N GA
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Yeah it seems like it's all or nothing for N GA when it comes to storms like that. I got screwed in 2015 with that gradient but not as badly as others were. I believe the east side of the county got 1 inch and the west side got 3 and I had 2. Maybe if we get such a storm this winter, I'll jackpot again. However, last year had a great storm itself, and they seem to only occur once every several winters or longer.
 
Winter storms, especially down here are amazing examples of how localized weather can be. A few miles can make the biggest difference. Like back in January 2017, my neighborhood was pounded by sleet while neighborhoods in South Charlotte had rain mixed in, along with North Charlotte suburbs being mostly snow.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Latest Euro seasonal.
:weenie::weenie::weenie::weenie:
View attachment 5566
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The -20 to -40 roughly corresponds to anomalies of -2 to -4 F, a solidly cold winter for most of the SE US and coldest since 2010-1 or even 2009-10 in some cases. For reference, 2009-10 was -4.5 at KATL, the coldest since 1977-8.

So we now have the Euro (-20 to -40 m 500 mb heights roughly corresponds to -2 to -4), the JAMSTEC (roughly averaging -2), and, most importantly, the very highly respected Pioneer (can’t tell what anomalies are but it is clearly cold in the SE though the coldest anomalies further north unlike the centered over the SE Euro and JAMSTEC).
 
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GaWx said:
The -20 to -40 roughly corresponds to anomalies of -2 to -4 F, a solidly cold winter for most of the SE US and coldest since 2010-1 or even 2009-10 in some cases. For reference, 2009-10 was -4.5 at KATL, the coldest since 1977-8.

So we now have the Euro (-20 to -40 dm 500 mb heights roughly corresponds to -2 to -4), the JAMSTEC (roughly averaging -2), and, most importantly, the very highly respected Pioneer (can’t tell what anomalies are but it is clearly cold in the SE though the coldest anomalies further north unlike the centered over the SE Euro and JAMSTEC).
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Has the new Jamstec come out? I saw the July version but haven't seen the August one posted. May not be ready yet.
 
GaWx said:
Too soon
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Thanks. Is that one released usually around mid-month? I can't keep up with when all these different seasonals come out.
 
Rain Cold said:
Thanks. Is that one released usually around mid-month? I can't keep up with when all these different seasonals come out.
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I think it was released near 7/20. Eurosip is released around then or even maybe a little later.
 
GaWx said:
The -20 to -40 roughly corresponds to anomalies of -2 to -4 F, a solidly cold winter for most of the SE US and coldest since 2010-1 or even 2009-10 in some cases. For reference, 2009-10 was -4.5 at KATL, the coldest since 1977-8.

So we now have the Euro (-20 to -40 m 500 mb heights roughly corresponds to -2 to -4), the JAMSTEC (roughly averaging -2), and, most importantly, the very highly respected Pioneer (can’t tell what anomalies are but it is clearly cold in the SE though the coldest anomalies further north unlike the centered over the SE Euro and JAMSTEC).
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After further analysis this morning, I think my initial guideline of the Euro’s -20 to -40 meter 500 mb anomalies roughly corresponding to -2 to -4 F surface temperature anomalies is too small. I now think it corresponds roughly to at least -2.5 to -5 F and maybe even as much as -3 to -6 F. Regardless, it is rough because on any one day a certain 500 mb height average at any particular location could be associated with a far different daily average surface temperature vs any other day depending on many factors. That’s why I’m only looking for a rough average relationship. To get this, I looked at the difference between normal surface temperatures in various cities for January vs July as well as the normal 500 mb heights for both months for the same cities. This told me that the rough average correlation is greater than the 10 meters to 1.0 F I was initially assuming. The rough relationship appears to be more like 10 meters to 1.3-1.6 F rather than only 1.0 F. It appears that the higher end of this range tends to apply further south (as in a place like ATL) vs the Midwest/NE (say like Chicago or NYC), where it appears to be closer to the lower part of the range.

**Edited several times**
 
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When is that Beaufort Gyre thing going to release?
 
Rain Cold said:
Gandalf pretty much sums up how I feel every winter.
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1300m said:
Could turn out to be a very exhausting winter with southern stream waves ejecting eastward frequently...
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I'm already preparing myself to watch at least one decent snowstorm screw over RDU relative to the Triad and Roxboro, although this is climatologically favored anyway, it seems to be even more prevalent in the largest storms during NINO winters like this.
 
Rain Cold said:
Dude! -20 - -40C is going to be brutal! If we can't get snow out of that, then we suck horribly.
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Lots of coastals with Kitty Hawk getting 4-8” , down through CHS, and you get a cloud flizzard, and Brick looking at the models and saying” it’s got to come further west”:p
 
NoSnowATL said:
Late October
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I can’t imagine an early start to winter like last year, but I think we have a legit threat in December! Maybe , hopefully, a Dec 2002 redux!
 
Webberweather53 said:
I'm already preparing myself to watch at least one decent snowstorm screw over RDU relative to the Triad and Roxboro, although this is climatologically favored anyway, it seems to be even more prevalent in the largest storms during NINO winters like this.
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I'm mentally prepping for another January 2017 lol
 
To get a better idea of what the August Euro ~-30 to -40 meter 500 mb ht anomaly forecast for DJF might imply for, say, a place like KATL based on the history of cool to cold sub +2.0 ONI peak El Ninos since the 1950s (all anomalies based on 1950-present data):

Nino Winter......500 mb anomaly......surface temp. anomaly
1957-8...................-80...............................-3.9
1963-4...................-63...............................-6.2
1968-9...................-29...............................-4.0
1969-70.................-50...............................-4.6
1976-7...................-67...............................-7.7
1977-8...................-46...............................-6.7
1979-80.................-14...............................-0.5
1986-7...................-11...............................-0.8
2002-3...................-17...............................-1.6
2009-10.................-63...............................-4.9

Average of these...-44...............................-4.1

This is just data for thought as regards this Euro DJF 500 mb height anomaly forecast. I'll let the readers draw their own conclusions as to what this -30 to -40 m 500 mb ht anomaly for Atlanta and -20 to -40 m for the bulk of the SE in general might mean should this forecast happen to verify closely. But suffice it to say that it would likely mean at least as cold as a -3 F anomaly for Atlanta's DJF or the coldest winter there since 2009-10. No winter other than 2009-10 since 1982-3 has been colder than -3. So, even a -3 would be a huge deal. But of course, this is all major speculation. Actually getting El Nino is crucial. Hopefully we don't have another 2012 teaser on our hands. I don't think so but it is a small possibility.
 
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Tarheel1 said:
Lots of coastals with Kitty Hawk getting 4-8” , down through CHS, and you get a cloud flizzard, and Brick looking at the models and saying” it’s got to come further west”:p
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Followed by a “these models are useless!”
 
here's my absolutely uninformed prediction for Winter '18/'19:
Cold, somewhat stormy Dec (been a while, so just the fallacy of percentages)
Winter persists into mid Jan, with one or two decent snows for Tennessee/Nc... all except RDU (because I don't like you!)
Warm Feb, Mild March.

Gonna be a little like 10/11, but not as cold or snowy.
 
whamby said:
here's my absolutely uninformed prediction for Winter '18/'19:
Cold, somewhat stormy Dec (been a while, so just the fallacy of percentages)
Winter persists into mid Jan, with one or two decent snows for Tennessee/Nc... all except RDU (because I don't like you!)
Warm Feb, Mild March.

Gonna be a little like 10/11, but not as cold or snowy.
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It's gonna be 2011-12 redoo. Just kidding :)
 
Last year was insane getting snow on December 9th. I don’t think I will see snow that early here again in my lifetime!
 
Snowflowxxl said:
Last year was insane getting snow on December 9th. I don’t think I will see snow that early here again in my lifetime!
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I'm still pissed that we in Chattanooga mostly whiffed on that storm.... Dalton got 3 inches, CHA got half inch... places just 70 miles to the south, close to a foot.. ahhgh, snow tracking in the south is a maddening sport.
 
Snowflowxxl said:
Last year was insane getting snow on December 9th. I don’t think I will see snow that early here again in my lifetime!
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I don't think it has sunk in for most of us on how rare that event was. Largest snowfall for many of these areas since '93 and probably eclipsing that event in a good number of locations including mine.
 
Arcc said:
I don't think it has sunk in for most of us on how rare that event was. Largest snowfall for many of these areas since '93 and probably eclipsing that event in a good number of locations including mine.
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yeah, and the kicker was there wasn't any super rare Arctic air for that event either... snow very deep into the South usually needs record Arctic air, this wasn't.
 
Arcc said:
I don't think it has sunk in for most of us on how rare that event was. Largest snowfall for many of these areas since '93 and probably eclipsing that event in a good number of locations including mine.
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That storm was one of my biggest regrets winter storm chasing wise. i decided not to chase it because of my unreliable vehicle at the time. I should of risked it.... ugh. I stayed at my aunts house in Lithonia where we managed a lousy inch. It has been very rough here south and east of I-85 in which we haven't had a significant winter storm besides that surprise icing event for some since 2014. I have really grown to hate the warm nose.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Latest Euro seasonal.
:weenie::weenie::weenie::weenie:
View attachment 5566
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That 500 mb Euro DJF map looks like a -NAO/-AO/+PNA combo to go along with a likely Modoki El Nino. It couldn't get much better than that. I hope we're not getting the big tease with these Euro, Pioneer, and Jamstec winter maps! Of course, there's nothing like having the Pioneer on your side. I mean how often does it predict E US cold?
 
GaWx said:
That 500 mb Euro DJF map looks like a -NAO/-AO/+PNA combo to go along with a likely Modoki El Nino. It couldn't get much better than that. I hope we're not getting the big tease with these Euro, Pioneer, and Jamstec winter maps! Of course, there's nothing like having the Pioneer on your side. I mean how often does it predict E US cold?
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never even heard of the Pioneer... what is that?
 
whamby said:
never even heard of the Pioneer... what is that?
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It is a model used and possibly developed by WeatherBell. I can't recall it ever not being cold in the E US for winter. So ti is the perfect model for Joe Bastardi. So, I was being silly in asking how often does it predict E US cold and just having fun with it. The model was cold last winter:
https://www.weatherbell.com/images/imguploader/images/pioeer_temps.png

Then again in all fairness, it hasn't been around more than a few years.
 
whamby said:
yeah, and the kicker was there wasn't any super rare Arctic air for that event either... snow very deep into the South usually needs record Arctic air, this wasn't.
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Not necessarily, several of the big southern snows contained modified pacific air that was just cold enough such as the February 2015 north AL crusher.
 
Arcc said:
Not necessarily, several of the big southern snows contained modified pacific air that was just cold enough such as the February 2015 north AL crusher.
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by deep south, I mean south texas, the gulf coast, southern Ga/Fl... those areas got snow during that storm.
 
N Alabama isn't the 'deep south' by anyone's definition, I don't think...
 
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