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Wintry Winter 2018-19 Discussion

To me we are pretty confident well get high end weak el nino or low end moderate. Is it east based, central or more west based? Very important.

My biggest thing I always look for is the Aleutian low each season and where and how it sets up. Always root for the + pna. In my opinion the pna being favorable helps us way more than the nao. We always need a source or mechanisims to get the cold down here. With active stj this season, we should see alot of split flow. So well have to sit tight and watch it unfold throughout Nov. The aleutian low sets up from generally Nov- April then heads poleward,washes out over summer. But it can help or really screw stuff up for us. Not the only factor, as there are several that influence each other, to set the table up for the seasonal result we get each D,J,F. But for my amateur self. I always watch the NE pac , more so than theAtlantic. Prob not wise to narrow a very sophisticated process into just watching one area, signal. But id always vote for the pac to be ligned up just right before the Atlantic, if I had to choose.
 
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NCSNOW said:
Read a post on amx, cohen is touting today the possibility of a pv split, think cfs model, eastern seaboard gets a real deal early start to winter.

We flip to November in a few days. That means its officially pattern chasing season for those of us who turn over every leaf possible, looking for any and all types of winter weather. I usually wait till mid month to zero in, start watching 15 day model runs, tracking teleconnections etc. But this year lots of potential. Time is here for verefication, shut up or put up time as far as strength , location of el nino, how the atlantic is gonna set up, NE pacific etc.
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A little bit of warming and elongating/dislodging of the pv on the GEFS. Not a bad start.
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Looks like the models are starting to head in a positive direction by the middle of November. Hopefully this will continue as we head into winter.


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So, are we expecting La Nina or El Nino this winter? I know there are positives with both here.
 
SD said:
Can't be mad about where the models have us going. I've been interested in the last week of November into the first week of December all fall so I feel better about that. I still have that lingering concern we find a way to go warm.

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Yeah I am too, there's always an understood risk of going warm in December w/ an El Nino lurking, but if we manage to be cold & stormy as is sometimes true in weak El Ninos, that's a huge bonus because January & February are usually even colder/stormier in many of those cases.
 
Brick Tamland said:
I recall these from the winter of 2014-2015 when we were looking at a El Nino.

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Lol. Well it worked out for some areas i guess. The " much above normal" snowfall forecast didnt work out for the I-20 corridor in GA. I think when it comes to Atlanta and points south, looking at snowfall forecasts is pointless considering how little snow Atlanta averages.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Lol. Well it worked out for some areas i guess. The " much above normal" snowfall forecast didnt work out for the I-20 corridor in GA. I think when it comes to Atlanta and points south, looking at snowfall forecasts is pointless considering how little snow Atlanta averages.
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Northern Tennessee and southern Kentucky did real well in February that winter. Best February I can ever remember in 12 years of living here. The crazy part was all the winter storms happened on February 16th and later. I personally ended up with 3 snow storms one ice storm and a few flurrie days between feb 16th and early march.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Lol. Well it worked out for some areas i guess. The " much above normal" snowfall forecast didnt work out for the I-20 corridor in GA. I think when it comes to Atlanta and points south, looking at snowfall forecasts is pointless considering how little snow Atlanta averages.
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I remember waiting for a couple of weeks while TN and points north stayed in the snow. I finally got a payoff with an inch or so of sleet and this the next day. It stuck from the first flake but did briefly change to rain before going back. I think there was a sharp cutoff to the south.
 

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EmersonGA said:
I remember waiting for a couple of weeks while TN and points north stayed in the snow. I finally got a payoff with an inch or so of sleet and this the next day. It stuck from the first flake but did briefly change to rain before going back. I think there was a sharp cutoff to the south.
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This picture excites me


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My snow predictions for selected cities in the south:

Nashville: 14"
Chattanooga: 9"
Knoxville:12"
Huntsville: 8"
Birmingham: 6"
Atlanta: 7"
Augusta: 1"
Columbia: 2"
Greenville,SC: 6"
Charlotte: 4"
Raleigh: 6"
Gainesville, FL: Dusting
Montgomery: 4"
Jackson: 5"
Dallas: 9"
Little Rock: 15"
New Orleans: 1"
 
SoutheastRidge said:
My snow predictions for selected cities in the south:

Nashville: 14"
Chattanooga: 9"
Knoxville:12"
Huntsville: 8"
Birmingham: 6"
Atlanta: 7"
Augusta: 1"
Columbia: 2"
Charlotte: 3"
Raleigh: 5"
Gainesville, FL: Dusting
Montgomery: 4"
Jackson: 5"
Dallas: 9"
Little Rock: 15"
New Orleans: 1"
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Atlanta 7 inches and Charlotte 3 inches...??? Not likely.
 
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