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Wintry Winter 2018-19 Discussion

The novelty event the CMC is showing for next weekend is interesting one to watch. How is it the models are so drastically different from one another. One shows 50s and sunshine the other shows 30s and winter mix
 
Tarheel1 said:
I guess even when we’re not punting a month and all the indices are best we’ve ever seen, Europe gets all the cold! We just keep finding ways to win! Win baby win!
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We're still punting November. Jim Rome wasn't built in a day. Give it time!
 
Jessy89 said:
The novelty event the CMC is showing for next weekend is interesting one to watch. How is it the models are so drastically different from one another. One shows 50s and sunshine the other shows 30s and winter mix
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The CMC is handling the upper level energy differently than the GFS and has the HP in a fairly good position to keep enough cold locked in for some wintry weather.
 
The pattern we seem to be getting into. Is one where we may only have a day or two notice before any winter storm. Correct me if I’m wrong but it looks like a pattern that’s hard for the models to handle.
 
Jessy89 said:
The pattern we seem to be getting into. Is one where we may only have a day or two notice before any winter storm. Correct me if I’m wrong but it looks like a pattern that’s hard for the models to handle.
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I'd say the signals for a storm will be there 4-5 days out and from there it will all depend on how all the key pieces unfold. Models rarely get our winter storms modeled correctly outside of 3 days anyways, shoot even 24-48 hours out there can be big disagreements on the rain/snow lines. What I would look for is the overall pattern changes we see right now and with time we should see models come around to some threats. We need more of a cold push but not too much that suppresses everything to our south. Getting the right balance is why storms here in the southeast are so tricky most years.
 
Maybe by the later part of the weekend we will start to see a Winter storm developing on the Models for the end of Nov/Early December we can start watching. Nothing but optimism! :weenie:
 
NWMSGuy said:
Maybe by the later part of the weekend we will start to see a Winter storm developing on the Models for the end of Nov/Early December we can start watching. Nothing but optimism! :weenie:
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Thats the time to be looking at. Itll come and start showing up here soon. May have another 33 degree rainstorm or two to get through, but climo starts swinging in our favor as month ends. Folks have to remember what day it is on the calendar. Nice to see people coming down the slopes of Sugar mountain already and its a week before Turkey day
 
Thanks for posting those Kylo, that's a nice look and 300 hours out isn't too bad. Some really nice blocking signals showing up too.
 
The tail end of cold patterns often (but definitely not always) end w/ an overrunning/ice storm in general over the eastern US. If we play everything right I could see another threat materializing late next week as this ULL slides to our south even though it's virtually a massive long shot at best atm. Even when a cold pattern becomes established over us there's usually a little bit of a lag in many cases before we score a big dog because it takes a few storms to rebuild the snowpack to our north to really help "lock in" the cold air that reaches us. Considering this and climatology, I'd personally look for a threat in early December more than I would the tail end of November but either seems like a potentially legitimate timeframe for a storm to come knocking
 
Jon said:
You should have reported that. It’s not on any official records or databases. So you’re basically the only one who knows 9” fell there lol.


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Didnt have to, Goodwater is a mile south and somone reported 11" there, probably in the grass, along with several 10" reports to just my west. BMXs snow map nails it with my area in the 8-12" range..
 
Kylo said:
It’s a nino, I thought we agreed to punt until end of January? :)
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A normal year, I don't seriously start looking for storms IMBY until the start of January, I'm a December punter for sure. This super duper blocking with reds up top surrounded by blues has me putting December in play. I'm questioning that decision though....:)
 
Kylo said:
EPS heard our complaints. Coming up colder and blocktastic.

View attachment 7458 View attachment 7459
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Great! That's more like it. Thank you EPS....I would now kindly request a cold, cold Miller A that traverses from southern California, along the gulf and up the coast, with a banana high to the NE and Mid west. Thank you in advance.
 
SnowNiner said:
Great! That's more like it. Thank you EPS....I would now kindly request a cold, cold Miller A that traverses from southern California, along the gulf and up the coast, with a banana high to the NE and Mid west. Thank you in advance.
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Well the GFS has been showing a nice piece of energy moving into the SW/Baja region in this same general timeframe...
 
GFS has more moisture but it is too warm.
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_31.png
 
So what are really the legit chances we have a cold winter?? Snow ice not part of the question ... just temps... reason... I’m thinking of buying a new fur coat...say what you will... but it is the warmest coat ever!!! Even in the wind.. am I wealthy..! Nope! Just a teacher that won a national award (Gary Dickinson award)given to only one teacher a year by the SAE foundation!!! ( science automotive engineering) along with that I got $1000 to spend in my classroom any way I choose... and $1000 personally to do as I wish!!! After tithes that leaves me $900.... thinking that will buy me a nice coat... so! Buy the coat, or spend it on something else? Praise the Lord! My hard work everyday is noticed by someone!!! I was nominated by my science academic coach for our school system...
 
Psalm 148:8 said:
So what are really the legit chances we have a cold winter?? Snow ice not part of the question ... just temps... reason... I’m thinking of buying a new fur coat...say what you will... but it is the warmest coat ever!!! Even in the wind.. am I wealthy..! Nope! Just a teacher that won a national award (Gary Dickinson award)given to only one teacher a year by the SAE foundation!!! ( science automotive engineering) along with that I got $1000 to spend in my classroom any way I choose... and $1000 personally to do as I wish!!! After tithes that leaves me $900.... thinking that will buy me a nice coat... so! Buy the coat, or spend it on something else? Praise the Lord! My hard work everyday is noticed by someone!!! I was nominated by my science academic coach for our school system...
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Congratulations that's awesome! Personally I'd spend it on something else but if a fur coat is what you want then go for it, you'll get a few times to show it off.

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