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Wintry Winter 2018-19 Discussion

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87 still has to be the most painful winter for RDU. Missing back to back mid-Jan winter storms by 20-30 miles. Feb made up for it but still missing 10-15 of snow by that close.
Yeah this is what I was getting at a few weeks ago, don't get me wrong 86-87 was still a great winter, but that's a common theme you see throughout many (certainly not all) El Nino winters in the historical record. The chances that the Triad cashes in more than RDU (relative to the average of 2-3" or so) is higher than normal during El Nino.
 
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More recently I remember 2009/10 was painful for RDU, still a good winter on the average, but witnessed storm after storm from December on nailing Roxboro and places North repeatedly.
 
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There was also a Major Storm for parts of Northwest MS and Memphis before Christmas that year. I believe I found a report a couple days ago that stated there was still 10 inches of snow on the ground for Memphis, Christmas Day.
Yes, Memphis received 14" of snow on December 23,1963 and also recorded a record low of -13 on December 24, 1963. This was the 1st of two Winter storms that month; the next one was further South-East covering Alabama and Middle Tennessee.

Here is a video of the December 23, 1963 snow in Memphis.

 

Jon

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Here is the new Pioneer Model forecast which greatly resembles the EPS

I believe the pioneer “model” aka a whole bunch of years thrown into a climate composite and called a model, hasn’t done well since they started it. It’s always too cold (imagine that)

Last year’s:


Reality:




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ForsythSnow

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I believe the pioneer “model” aka a whole bunch of years thrown into a climate composite and called a model, hasn’t done well since they started it. It’s always too cold (imagine that)

Last year’s:


Reality:




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Looks more like a general idea of temperature differences that should be reduced in severity. It's only existed a few years right? Any other years we can compare?
 
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I believe the pioneer “model” aka a whole bunch of years thrown into a climate composite and called a model, hasn’t done well since they started it. It’s always too cold (imagine that)

Last year’s:


Reality:




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
AKA, weenie analog model. Going to go ahead and not expect that 500 pattern either.
 

Jon

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Looks more like a general idea of temperature differences that should be reduced in severity. It's only existed a few years right? Any other years we can compare?
I wouldn’t say busting 1.5-2C widespread for the entire US is a general idea, but I guess it could have busted extremely warm or something so I get it.

It is new. I think there’s a couple more years you could compare (at least one more)...the problem is obvious. The big red blob under Greenland that never happened in reality. The “pioneer model” has a bunch of years with a -NAO that never happened.


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I love how due we are here in the upstate. I feel something brewing this year
Another example Winter 2016-17

Pioneer Model


Reality


This isn’t pioneer but it’s still Bastardi




Lesson: JB has a cold bias. Lol
JB said the Pioneer model does better with cold winters. Idk. We shall see
 

Jon

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I love how due we are here in the upstate. I feel something brewing this year

JB said the Pioneer model does better with cold winters. Idk. We shall see
They’re basically saying “our model works when winter is cold because we always forecast cold winters”


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I don’t know what the hell happened in December of 1963 . But from what Webber and others have posted , if J.B. nails this I will 100 percent slosh in the Tub with him because the general theme from most is December will be above normal temp wise
its 1 of only 3 winters there's been more than a foot of snow here(looks like it was January 1964 here actually)

All in :p
 
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