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Tropical TS OPHELIA ?

Seems to have drawn in a touch of drier air. Capped potential for sure because of the previous convective burst had maintained it could have ramped up a bit more.
 
metwannabe said:
NAM still showing 50+ wind gust here in the morning, just once I'd like to see the NAM wind gust forecast be right, just once.
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It did pretty well with my area and the further west position versus the globals that had this moving due North through the sounds. I said a few times it was the hi res versus the globals and I'd say the hi res is winning here.
 
Nam gets it down to 978. Not much time left

nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_9.png
 
NHC already saying it may have briefly been a hurricane earlier this evening

Radar imagery and
microwave data from that period showed that a mid-level eye feature
had been forming well to the west of the surface center, but that
feature has since dissipated, suggesting that it--and the
hurricane-force winds--may have been a transient occurrence.
 
If this is the center that new big band on the west side gets onshore someone is gonna get a ton rain and some decent winds
 

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The center is possibly benefiting from some land interaction.....if this thing can build and maintain a solid center then maybe we see higher gust further inland....still I think gust over 50 anywhere away from the coast will be rare....unless a lot changes.
 
Downeastnc said:
The center is possibly benefiting from some land interaction.....if this thing can build and maintain a solid center then maybe we see higher gust further inland....still I think gust over 50 anywhere away from the coast will be rare....unless a lot changes.
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One of those convective cells could gust to 60 mph
 
Shaggy said:
Yeah and it's still moving to the left it would seem
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The trough steering Ophelia has become deeper and more negatively tilted in recent model runs. The orientation of this trough, along with the blocking from the subtropical high, seems to be pulling Ophelia westward. The upper level energy (represented by dry air) is digging all the way around the core as the trough digs under the system, and the COC is pivoting towards the west. This has the hallmarks of an occluded baroclonic system that is about to reach its peak before decaying.
 
A little bit of expanding colder cloud tops SW of the center, looks like some of the dryer air has been pushed away from the center as well so it seems to be getting ready to try another burst of convection which would be well timed with the recon headed that way....
 
Downeastnc said:
A little bit of expanding colder cloud tops SW of the center, looks like some of the dryer air has been pushed away from the center as well so it seems to be getting ready to try another burst of convection which would be well timed with the recon headed that way....
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I THINK you get 50+ east
 
Highest wind gusts on the coast are going to be anywhere from 50-70MPH. If Ophelia does make it to Hurricane Strength, none of that will make it on the coast.
 
lexxnchloe said:
I THINK you get 50+ east
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I dunno only way I think we see gust 50+ inland is with the core and only if it can really organize the last 6 hrs or so it has over water....they are barely gusting 50-60 right on the water so unless there is a well defined core that can hold together till it gets to me I doubt we see anything higher than 40-50 IMBY.....I guess there could be gust 60-80 in the band out over the water....recon will tell the tale here soon enough.

Edit to add that once it gets inland there could be some weird baroclinic stuff that happens that lets us mix down some bigger gust....
 
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