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Tropical TS OPHELIA ?

Probably a good thing this won't have another 12 or so hrs over water...again wish they had a plane in there to see what kind of center it had already etc...

Looking better and better

Screenshot_20230922_033229_Chrome.jpg
 
Last edited:
5:00 AM EDT Fri Sep 22
Moving: N at 14 mph
Min pressure: 1000 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph


083500_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
 
Belle Lechat said:
5:00 AM EDT Fri Sep 22
Moving: N at 14 mph
Min pressure: 1000 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph


083500_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
Click to expand...
Their discussion says movement at N at about 7kt but their advisory says 14mph. I don't think it's moving that fast yet, but that llc is jumping around so difficult to ascertain. Recon would be nice, anyway, pressure is falling and trying it's best to transition to tropical
 
metwannabe said:
Their discussion says movement at N at about 7kt but their advisory says 14mph. I don't think it's moving that fast yet, but that llc is jumping around so difficult to ascertain. Recon would be nice, anyway, pressure is falling and trying it's best to transition to tropical
Click to expand...
Models are jumping the center like crazy. Hfs started out 50 miles west at 18hrs only to jump from dang near cape fear to cape lookout in the next 6 hours. Not sure models are gonna useful for exact landfall point
 
Shaggy said:
Models are jumping the center like crazy. Hfs started out 50 miles west at 18hrs only to jump from dang near cape fear to cape lookout in the next 6 hours. Not sure models are gonna useful for exact landfall point
Click to expand...
Not until and if, it gets a well defined center and can completely go tropical
 
Shaggy said:
Models are jumping the center like crazy. Hfs started out 50 miles west at 18hrs only to jump from dang near cape fear to cape lookout in the next 6 hours. Not sure models are gonna useful for exact landfall point
Click to expand...
This is always a problem until the center of circulation becomes closed and the models have a fixed point to initialize from. It should close off by lunch time.
 
8:00 AM EDT Fri Sep 22
Moving: N at 14 mph
Min pressure: 996 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph

115304_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
 
Going to be onshore in 16-20 hrs so whatever its going to do it needs to do it quick, in order for anyone inland to see winds over say 50ish there is going to have to be a fairly solid little core....almost all the models have little to no backside wind....
 
Why later today on recon......its frustrating they dont have planes in there now and we got to wait another 6+ hrs for them to go...

 
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