lexxnchloe
Member
I think an 85mph hurricane is doable.
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Tropical TS OPHELIA ?
- Thread starter Downeastnc
- Start date
18z 3kNAM doesn’t have much change from 12z. Comes in around Topsail Beach and Surf City at 985mb and goes inland NW from there
Shaggy
Member
Biggest wind output for mby yet and I'm in brjnswick and don't even have a TS watch or warning for me
Downeastnc
Member
18Z GFS 30 miles west of the 12Z and is 4 mb lower at 990 stronger still east over western Pamlico sound
I imagine that if follows the stronger models with development, you might see the NHC expand the watch on to the NC/SC border
Downeastnc
Member
Also would not be surprised to see hurricane watches or even warnings if the models continue to hint at this being in the 980-990 range.
lexxnchloe
Member
They may shortly
lexxnchloe
Member
The track the GFS takes would push alot of water up the chesapeake bay. Goes right up just west of the bay
lexxnchloe
Member
Dont look now but im posting this here instead of the regular tropical thread because at 150 this may be partially whats left of the storm coming back SW
Big high to the north and low to the south at 150
Big high to the north and low to the south at 150
Downeastnc
Member
New low level swirl closer to the convection on the visible as the sun sets around 75.3 or so
Belle Lechat
Member
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Tornadocane
Member
Honestly, PTC 16 looks like an El Nino-type Winter Storm than Tropical System. There's even split-flow pattern over the CONUS. Essentially, a strong Subtropical Jet from the West Pacific is piling upper level energy over the tropically-enhanced area vorticity that's cutting off north of the Bahamas. Strengthening is wholly baroclonic. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=atl&product=wv_mid
Interestingly, the subtropical punch over Southern Florida looks much stronger than the models advertised. There were Gusts of 50-70MPH that reached the surface, and a vortex that almost reached the ground in Pembroke Pines, FL. You can see this area on the WV Imagery above. Very Hot and Humid Environment was disturbed.
Interestingly, the subtropical punch over Southern Florida looks much stronger than the models advertised. There were Gusts of 50-70MPH that reached the surface, and a vortex that almost reached the ground in Pembroke Pines, FL. You can see this area on the WV Imagery above. Very Hot and Humid Environment was disturbed.
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Downeastnc
Member
All the cane models at 18Z are MHX north to around Belhaven in the mid 980's. This would be a big surge event for the upper parts of the Pam....luckily forward speed will mitigate it some.
lexxnchloe
Member
Shaggy
Member
Hrrr trying to go cat 1
HrRRRR would be fun too
znel52
Member
This is a big spread out extratropical low so the pressure to wind relation may not be typical to that of a tropical system. I'm thinking mid to upper level TS strength. Hoping to set a new wind record on my PWS ?
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Sent from my SM-S918U using Tapatalk
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Lex just got hrrr’d!
lexxnchloe
Member
for now, lol
Center passes right over me, max winds around 40 lol