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Tropical TS OPHELIA ?

Shaggy said:
Still seems to be the hi res versus the globals on intensity. They better sort it out less than 36 hours to go
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NAM's are also much more west, and moving more WNW or NW at landfall, the globals are further east more Emerald Isle and more N with the track....the 3k is back down to 977 at landfall this run....and most of these are landfalling by 2am tomorrow night so more like 28 hrs to go.

This could easily be one of those cases where the winds do not have time to catch up to the pressure drops before landfall...
 
according to the latest bulletin its barely moving and its gone from 1012 to 1007mb


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 75.3W
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


Nighttime proxy-visible satellite imagery suggests that the center
of the low pressure system off the southeastern U.S. coast has
become better defined this evening. Nearly all of the associated
deep convection remains oriented in a curved band extending around
the northern and eastern sides of the circulation, although a few
convective elements are beginning to fill in on the back side of
the system as well. Based on 1-minute wind observations from NOAA
buoy 41002 and ship reports, the initial intensity is raised to 35
kt, with all tropical-storm-force winds currently north of the
center on the north side of an attached warm front.
 
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Much better left-of-track (inland NC) precip this 00z run of the GFS. I’d think the setup would favor that sort of enhancement
 
GOES16-AL162023-Sandwich-1000x1000.gif
 
Little hot tower going up....getting closer to being stacked now and shear looks much less of a issue...LLC is just SW of the NE blob with the hot tower...storm has roughly 24hrs to get it together.

Screenshot_20230922_021408_Chrome.jpg
 
Downeastnc said:
Really wish they had started recon flights tonight..
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I wonder if they'd put a flight up sooner.

Live Recon in the Atlantic Basin - Tropical Atlantic

View the latest Atlantic hurricane recon in Google Earth and Cesium.
tropicalatlantic.com

Recon Data

Real-time recon data from aircraft flying into tropical cyclones.
cyclonicwx.com

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1150 AM EDT THU 21 SEPTEMBER 2023
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2023
TCPOD NUMBER.....23-114

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71
A. 22/1730Z
B. AFXXX 0116A INVEST
C. 22/1450Z Departure Time
D. 32.5N 75.5W
E. 22/1700Z TO 22/2330Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. INVEST

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 72
A. 23/0530Z,1130Z
B. AFXXX 0216A CYCLONE
C. 23/0245Z
D. 34.2N 76.1W
E. 23/0500Z TO 23/1130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. FIX

Summer Plan
A. Fix/Invest Time
B. Mission Identifier
C. Departure Time
D. Forecast Position
E. Time on Station
F. Altitude(s) on Station
G. Remarks (if needed)
 
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