• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical TS OPHELIA ?

lexxnchloe said:
thats what im thinking, 10 more mb drop to 986, That should produce a nice little system
Click to expand...
986mb was what Isaias was at when it made landfall near Holden Beach in 2020 with winds at 90mph. Now I wouldn’t expect winds that high with this because of the larger wind field.
 
Chazwin said:
986mb was what Isaias was at when it made landfall near Holden Beach in 2020 with winds at 90mph. Now I wouldn’t expect winds that high with this because of the larger wind field.
Click to expand...
I agree, but it might translate to stronger gusts in a wider area
 
Chazwin said:
986mb was what Isaias was at when it made landfall near Holden Beach in 2020 with winds at 90mph. Now I wouldn’t expect winds that high with this because of the larger wind field.
Click to expand...

His wind field was hot garbage, I went right through the eastern eyewall, barely got into the center and I think peak gust at PGV was 47 lol....

The storm if it is at 996 is 4 or 5 mb ahead of the models for this time frame and close to what some of the lower Nam 3k runs had it at...those Nam3k runs that are near 996 for the 8am this morning time frame all got to the low 980's at landfall.
 
Downeastnc said:
His wind field was hot garbage, I went right through the eastern eyewall, barely got into the center and I think peak gust at PGV was 47 lol....

The storm if it is at 996 is 4 or 5 mb ahead of the models for this time frame and close to what some of the lower Nam 3k runs had it at...those Nam3k runs that are near 996 for the 8am this morning time frame all got to the low 980's at landfall.
Click to expand...
Yeah I was on Oak Island when Isaias made landfall so I got into the eastern eyewall. Our beach house is two rows from the beach near the Yaupon Pier and the pier had a top sustained wind of 76mph with a top gust of 91. Just a few miles inland near Bolivia that caught the same part of the eyewall only had a top gust to 56 so it fell apart very quickly.
 
Is that an eye forming?

GOES16-AL162023-Sandwich-1000x1000.gif
 
Crazy how "close" the storm looks on radar and sat when its actually not that "close" at least according to the NHC 8am fix....also the center is still mostly naked and south of the big blob of storms.., of course if we had a plane in it then we would have a much better idea of what kind of structure was there.....
 
Not far from seeing a transition to sub-tropical or tropical right now. That hot tower north of center needs to wrap around and then its bombs away. As it approaches land the friction will really help to tighten the core up.

The baroclinic forces are maturing this morning with the associated trough going negative. In this mature stage we watch for the transition to tropical as storms wrap up-shear around the center this evening.

Going to be one of those storms we say "glad it didn't have 12 more hours over water"

IMG_0182.jpeg


HRRR brings a nasty little core onshore tmrw morning.

IMG_0180.png
 
Last edited:
With the shear being what it is, we won't see the typical "core" around the center of this storm so pinpointing the exact landfall isn't important. The strongest winds will occur well north of the center and will probably occur this evening into tonight for Coastal NC. Not expecting anything too crazy for most areas, but we could see some gusts to tropical storm force ahead of the center coming onshore.
1695392235592.png
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top