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Tropical TS OPHELIA ?

Shaggy said:
Still seems to be the hi res versus the globals on intensity. They better sort it out less than 36 hours to go
Click to expand...

NAM's are also much more west, and moving more WNW or NW at landfall, the globals are further east more Emerald Isle and more N with the track....the 3k is back down to 977 at landfall this run....and most of these are landfalling by 2am tomorrow night so more like 28 hrs to go.

This could easily be one of those cases where the winds do not have time to catch up to the pressure drops before landfall...
 
according to the latest bulletin its barely moving and its gone from 1012 to 1007mb


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 75.3W
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


Nighttime proxy-visible satellite imagery suggests that the center
of the low pressure system off the southeastern U.S. coast has
become better defined this evening. Nearly all of the associated
deep convection remains oriented in a curved band extending around
the northern and eastern sides of the circulation, although a few
convective elements are beginning to fill in on the back side of
the system as well. Based on 1-minute wind observations from NOAA
buoy 41002 and ship reports, the initial intensity is raised to 35
kt, with all tropical-storm-force winds currently north of the
center on the north side of an attached warm front.
 
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Much better left-of-track (inland NC) precip this 00z run of the GFS. I’d think the setup would favor that sort of enhancement
 
GOES16-AL162023-Sandwich-1000x1000.gif
 
Little hot tower going up....getting closer to being stacked now and shear looks much less of a issue...LLC is just SW of the NE blob with the hot tower...storm has roughly 24hrs to get it together.

Screenshot_20230922_021408_Chrome.jpg
 
Downeastnc said:
Really wish they had started recon flights tonight..
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I wonder if they'd put a flight up sooner.

Live Recon in the Atlantic Basin - Tropical Atlantic

View the latest Atlantic hurricane recon in Google Earth and Cesium.
tropicalatlantic.com

Recon Data | CyclonicWx

Real-time recon data from aircraft flying into tropical cyclones.
cyclonicwx.com

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1150 AM EDT THU 21 SEPTEMBER 2023
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2023
TCPOD NUMBER.....23-114

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71
A. 22/1730Z
B. AFXXX 0116A INVEST
C. 22/1450Z Departure Time
D. 32.5N 75.5W
E. 22/1700Z TO 22/2330Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. INVEST

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 72
A. 23/0530Z,1130Z
B. AFXXX 0216A CYCLONE
C. 23/0245Z
D. 34.2N 76.1W
E. 23/0500Z TO 23/1130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. FIX

Summer Plan
A. Fix/Invest Time
B. Mission Identifier
C. Departure Time
D. Forecast Position
E. Time on Station
F. Altitude(s) on Station
G. Remarks (if needed)
 
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Probably a good thing this won't have another 12 or so hrs over water...again wish they had a plane in there to see what kind of center it had already etc...

Looking better and better

Screenshot_20230922_033229_Chrome.jpg
 
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5:00 AM EDT Fri Sep 22
Moving: N at 14 mph
Min pressure: 1000 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph


083500_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
 
Belle Lechat said:
5:00 AM EDT Fri Sep 22
Moving: N at 14 mph
Min pressure: 1000 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph


083500_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
Click to expand...
Their discussion says movement at N at about 7kt but their advisory says 14mph. I don't think it's moving that fast yet, but that llc is jumping around so difficult to ascertain. Recon would be nice, anyway, pressure is falling and trying it's best to transition to tropical
 
metwannabe said:
Their discussion says movement at N at about 7kt but their advisory says 14mph. I don't think it's moving that fast yet, but that llc is jumping around so difficult to ascertain. Recon would be nice, anyway, pressure is falling and trying it's best to transition to tropical
Click to expand...
Models are jumping the center like crazy. Hfs started out 50 miles west at 18hrs only to jump from dang near cape fear to cape lookout in the next 6 hours. Not sure models are gonna useful for exact landfall point
 
Shaggy said:
Models are jumping the center like crazy. Hfs started out 50 miles west at 18hrs only to jump from dang near cape fear to cape lookout in the next 6 hours. Not sure models are gonna useful for exact landfall point
Click to expand...
Not until and if, it gets a well defined center and can completely go tropical
 
Shaggy said:
Models are jumping the center like crazy. Hfs started out 50 miles west at 18hrs only to jump from dang near cape fear to cape lookout in the next 6 hours. Not sure models are gonna useful for exact landfall point
Click to expand...
This is always a problem until the center of circulation becomes closed and the models have a fixed point to initialize from. It should close off by lunch time.
 
8:00 AM EDT Fri Sep 22
Moving: N at 14 mph
Min pressure: 996 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph

115304_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
 
Going to be onshore in 16-20 hrs so whatever its going to do it needs to do it quick, in order for anyone inland to see winds over say 50ish there is going to have to be a fairly solid little core....almost all the models have little to no backside wind....
 
Why later today on recon......its frustrating they dont have planes in there now and we got to wait another 6+ hrs for them to go...

 
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