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Tropical TS OPHELIA ?

Chazwin said:
The short timing on this kinda reminds me a bit of Isaias in 2020. I was at Oak Island during that one and 18 hours before it hit, most people on island had no idea that there could be a hurricane coming as most forecast kept it a tropical storm. We were to the east of the where landfall occurred between Ocean Isle and Holden Beach and the storm hit as it was still strengthening and at a perpendicular angle causing a 7ft storm surge.
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Yeah going to be NC version of Hurricane Gaston 2004....small tight core that bombs out the last 18 hrs or so coming in....anyone that gets within 20-30 miles of the center gonna get winds 50-60 even inland a good ways since this will be strengthening as it comes in assuming that is indeed what it does. Also if it has a fairly well defined center the land interaction will only help it maintain that for the first 6-10 hrs on shore...especially if it tracks as far east as along the IBX.
 
Downeastnc said:
Yeah going to be NC version of Hurricane Gaston 2004....small tight core that bombs out the last 18 hrs or so coming in....anyone that gets within 20-30 miles of the center gonna get winds 50-60 even inland a good ways since this will be strengthening as it comes in assuming that is indeed what it does. Also if it has a fairly well defined center the land interaction will only help it maintain that for the first 6-10 hrs on shore...especially if it tracks as far east as along the IBX.
Click to expand...
I find it odd that the models seem to be showing a fairly large wind field. I would not expect to see that with a storm developing so close to the coast
 
Water temp(s) BEACH FRONT, are at 80F (depending where), here at Surf City it's @ 79.3 F...

East/North East winds are already screaming, gust(s) up to 30MPH..

Wind Average
2 min ago NE 20 mph
5 min ago NE 21 mph
10 min ago NE 21 mph
15 min ago NE 21 mph
30 min ago NE 22 mph
60 min ago NE 19 mph

Haven't checked the tides yet,, though on Sloop Point Road, down by the Marsh Bridge, It's already being (almost), over topped.. (Mid-Tide)..
 
Chazwin said:
I find it odd that the models seem to be showing a fairly large wind field. I would not expect to see that with a storm developing so close to the coast
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Got a fairly large base wind field already, and there will be baroclinic influences as well....this will help the W and NW side be more efficient at getting the 925 mb winds down....get some dry air mixing in etc.

Gonna be wait and see though since nothing really cranks up till tomorrow.....still might not be able to get as organized as the models have.
 
First look for the cane models coming in.....

HWRF

hwrf_ref_16L_15.png



hmon_ref_16L_15.png



hafsa_ref_16L_16.png



hafsb_ref_16L_17.png
 
Euro was weaker and east....Lookout to Plymouth 993......our little naked swirl poofed as well...going to be a nail biter since everything pretty much happens in 24-30 hrs or less.
 
Big circulation with this system, also seems to be wrapping up rather quickly in the mid levels at least....maybe some of those 980ish runs are doable....the loop below gives a idea of how big and fast this wrapped up.

MIMIC-TPW2

tropic.ssec.wisc.edu

Bit of a closer view

 
Just went under a TS warning in Pitt....

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...

A Tropical Storm Warning means tropical storm-force winds are
expected somewhere within this area within the next 36 hours

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- Greenville
- Farmville
- Grifton

* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Tropical Storm force wind
- Peak Wind Forecast: 35-45 mph with gusts to 55 mph
- Window for Tropical Storm force winds: early Saturday
morning until Saturday morning
 
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