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Tropical TS OPHELIA ?

lexxnchloe said:
F6p6WBhX0AAEmI9
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Any better defined map?
 
metwannabe said:
Looks to be trying to wrap up and stack up. Going to be an interesting 24 hours.
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Impressive really. 30 hrs ago it was 1012, now 987 and will probably drop some more


URNT12 KNHC 221947
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL162023
A. 22/19:15:50Z
B. 32.89 deg N 076.41 deg W
C. 850 mb 1312 m
D. 987 mb
E. 105 deg 12 kt
F. NA
G. NA
H. 60 kt
I. 327 deg 48 nm 19:00:00Z
J. 048 deg 67 kt
K. 324 deg 57 nm 18:57:00Z
L. 39 kt
M. 131 deg 42 nm 19:29:30Z
N. 217 deg 60 kt
O. 131 deg 30 nm 19:25:30Z
P. 14 C / 1520 m
Q. 20 C / 1523 m
R. 16 C / NA
S. 1345 / 8
T. 0.02 / 5 nm
U. AF305 0116A INVEST OB 10
MAX FL WIND 67 KT 324 / 57 NM 18:57:00Z
 
I just woke up and they have not called off 3rd shift at the plant tonight lol...really do not wanna go to work at 11pm with this thing coming in. The first time the power blips they will send us all home in the middle of whatever this ends up being around here.

Latest 3k nam this is in knts so 60+ mph gust in places

1695416709837.png
 
Downeastnc said:
I just woke up and they have not called off 3rd shift at the plant tonight lol...really do not wanna go to work at 11pm with this thing coming in. The first time the power blips they will send us all home in the middle of whatever this ends up being around here.

Latest 3k nam this is in knts so 60+ mph gust in places

View attachment 137139
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gusty here too
 
None of the models are really much for inland winds though outside the 3K, never more than 45 or so for most everyone US 1 to the east except for the OBX and southern beaches, and places on the IBX....probably not going to be enough time for the wind field to mature enough to actually get some better gust down.
 
Downeastnc said:
None of the models are really much for inland winds though outside the 3K, never more than 45 or so for most everyone US 1 to the east except for the OBX and southern beaches, and places on the IBX....probably not going to be enough time for the wind field to mature enough to actually get some better gust down.
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12Z euro had 60 mph gusts inland
 
lexxnchloe said:
I guess they are waiting for recon data whether to go to a warning
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No, they have recon data, they aren't forecasting it to reach hurricane strength but issued the watch due to the potential that it may do so. It has strengthened quicker than expected so they err on the side of caution, read their discussion, good info in there
 
Cape Lookout just gusted to 57 knts,,,,the buoy off Wrightsville just gusted to 58.3 and is still a good 50-60 miles from the center....

5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR):N ( 10 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD):38.9 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST):58.3 kts
 
lexxnchloe said:
I guess they are waiting for recon data whether to go to a warning
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A little surprised- it has begun gathering tropical characteristics but ophelia is still very much a hybrid phenomena. highest winds are still well away from the center- and a lot of the deepening can be attributed to extratropical processes. Recon shows the pressure gradient is pretty light: Generally guessing the hurricane watches are up since impacts would mimic a minimal cat 1, wind and surge wise (surge may actually be surprisingly high given large wind field and concave shape of coast)
recon_AF305-0116A-INVEST_timeseries.png

However, it's over warm water and seems to be wrapping and tightening up nicely. I could envision some surprises- maybe it gets to sub-980. Still pissed this storm ruined my beach weekend- strong enough to be a nuisance but not strong enough to justify chasing!
 
metwannabe said:
Center moved SW, tuck right under that deep convection, let's see if it can surprise in the 11th hour
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Yeah… the last hour or so, the satellite certainly looks like it’s developing a pretty healthy core around the center. Taking more of a tropical look to it.
 
Chazwin said:
Yeah… the last hour or so, the satellite certainly looks like it’s developing a pretty healthy core around the center. Taking more of a tropical look to it.
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Yep, looking solid on radar, might be a good thing it's gonna run out of room/time
 
Could see some impressive surge levels given the angle of the approach...might get 5-7 ft in washington

pamn7_hg.png


New Bern gonna get it good too....

bern7_hg.png
 
Gusting mid 30's sustained mid 20's at PGV which is about the highest we can expect during the event according to my local click and point....:rolleyes:, low level clouds are screaming by already and I can hear the roar of the wind inside.....the center is still 200 miles south of me. Got to think we can get some gust 45-55 by the time its all said and done...

22
17:45​
N 24 G 365.00
Rain and Breezy​
BKN012 BKN042 OVC1006666100%NANA29.88NA0.07
22
17:25​
NE 26 G 374.00
Heavy Rain and Windy​
OVC0106666100%NANA29.90NA0.03
 
Already have gusts to 47 at Virginia Beach and 46 at Wallops Island which is pretty far North.
 
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