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Tropical TS OPHELIA ?

lexxnchloe said:
I guess they are waiting for recon data whether to go to a warning
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No, they have recon data, they aren't forecasting it to reach hurricane strength but issued the watch due to the potential that it may do so. It has strengthened quicker than expected so they err on the side of caution, read their discussion, good info in there
 
Cape Lookout just gusted to 57 knts,,,,the buoy off Wrightsville just gusted to 58.3 and is still a good 50-60 miles from the center....

5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR):N ( 10 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD):38.9 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST):58.3 kts
 
lexxnchloe said:
I guess they are waiting for recon data whether to go to a warning
Click to expand...
A little surprised- it has begun gathering tropical characteristics but ophelia is still very much a hybrid phenomena. highest winds are still well away from the center- and a lot of the deepening can be attributed to extratropical processes. Recon shows the pressure gradient is pretty light: Generally guessing the hurricane watches are up since impacts would mimic a minimal cat 1, wind and surge wise (surge may actually be surprisingly high given large wind field and concave shape of coast)
recon_AF305-0116A-INVEST_timeseries.png

However, it's over warm water and seems to be wrapping and tightening up nicely. I could envision some surprises- maybe it gets to sub-980. Still pissed this storm ruined my beach weekend- strong enough to be a nuisance but not strong enough to justify chasing!
 
metwannabe said:
Center moved SW, tuck right under that deep convection, let's see if it can surprise in the 11th hour
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Yeah… the last hour or so, the satellite certainly looks like it’s developing a pretty healthy core around the center. Taking more of a tropical look to it.
 
Chazwin said:
Yeah… the last hour or so, the satellite certainly looks like it’s developing a pretty healthy core around the center. Taking more of a tropical look to it.
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Yep, looking solid on radar, might be a good thing it's gonna run out of room/time
 
Could see some impressive surge levels given the angle of the approach...might get 5-7 ft in washington

pamn7_hg.png


New Bern gonna get it good too....

bern7_hg.png
 
Gusting mid 30's sustained mid 20's at PGV which is about the highest we can expect during the event according to my local click and point....:rolleyes:, low level clouds are screaming by already and I can hear the roar of the wind inside.....the center is still 200 miles south of me. Got to think we can get some gust 45-55 by the time its all said and done...

22
17:45​
N 24 G 365.00
Rain and Breezy​
BKN012 BKN042 OVC1006666100%NANA29.88NA0.07
22
17:25​
NE 26 G 374.00
Heavy Rain and Windy​
OVC0106666100%NANA29.90NA0.03
 
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