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Tropical TS Jerry

metwannabe said:
Meh may have to time it just right those troughs that keep dropping through the NE but honestly unless some major changes looks like the ridge axis is good location to protect the SE from any TC. A deep south TC that runs through the Caribbean and IF it could survive could eventually impact western GOM I guess but Jerry ain't that storm imo
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I quickly looked at the members and I can't tell why the stronger members are further south but they start to diverge from the recurving ones day 3 so would think we see a shift one way or another on the EPS in the next couple of runs.

AL10.gif
 
KyloG said:
I quickly looked at the members and I can't tell why the stronger members are further south but they start to diverge from the recurving ones day 3 so would think we see a shift one way or another on the EPS in the next couple of runs.

View attachment 23683
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Yeah I noticed it was basically the stronger systems that tracked further west, pumping that ridge?
 
metwannabe said:
Yeah I noticed it was basically the stronger systems that tracked further west, pumping that ridge?
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I guess, I couldn't tell. I wondered if the hemispheric pattern was slightly altered which allowed Jerry to becoming stronger but that change also forced it further south/west at the same time. Guess it shows how delicate it is...still thinks this safely recurves, but we shall see.
 
KyloG said:
I guess, I couldn't tell. I wondered if the hemispheric pattern was slightly altered which allowed Jerry to becoming stronger but that change also forced it further south/west at the same time. Guess it shows how delicate it is...still thinks this safely recurves, but we shall see.
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It should intensify quickly, the MJO is in one of the best phases for upward motion over the Atlantic.
 
From best I can tell:
- He doesn’t look all that healthy right now on satellite loops. Am I off?
- He appears to be moving quite a bit south of the NHC track and the model consensus, which takes him right over 15.0N, 50.0W. Am I off?
 
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GaWx said:
From best I can tell:
- He doesn’t look all that healthy right now on satellite loops. Am I off?
- He appears to be moving quite a bit south of the NHC track and the model consensus, which takes him right over 15.0N, 50.0W. Am I off?
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Idk about health, but the movement looks south of the track to me too. Seems to be more W than WNW. Also there's an upper level recon mission that just started for this storm, so we should get some data by 12Z or 18Z.
 
Per the 5 AM NHC track based on straight line interpolation, Jerry should be up to the 14.5-14.6 N area in latitude at 11 AM. I don’t think he’s going to be much above 14.3 N but I could be wrong. That would be about 20 miles south of the NHC/model consensus.That may not seem like a lot but that’s enough to make a nontrivial difference in model projections.
 
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GaWx said:
From best I can tell:
- He doesn’t look all that healthy right now on satellite loops. Am I off?
- He appears to be moving quite a bit south of the NHC track and the model consensus, which takes him right over 15.0N, 50.0W. Am I off?
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Good catch. Looks that way to me:

ForecastTrackVerification_2019-09-18_1200Z_CIMSS.png
 
What's the deal with these tropical storms?

GettyImages-1032530912%281%29.jpg
 
Looking again at satellite loops, I think he’s degraded somewhat the last couple of hours though I wouldn’t bet the ranch on that as satellite pics can be deceiving. So, if he has degraded some, I wonder if that’s the reason he may be ~20 miles S of the NHC/model consensus. Does the steering for a weaker system in that area have less of a north component?
 
Looking at the visible it looks like the LLC is on the north side of the convection. Looks a little displaced from the MLC.
 
Turner Team said:
Looking at the visible it looks like the LLC is on the north side of the convection. Looks a little displaced from the MLC.
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I just saw an IR loop and it looks like he may have wobbled quite a bit north over the last hour. If so, he may be back on track if he was ever south of the track like I thought. Also, what you’re pointing out may be a reason I was deceived into thinking he was S of the projected track.

Edit: I now think he may actually be on track and up to 14.5 N already. I may have been deceived earlier. Let’s see what the NHC has at 11AM.
 
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GaWx said:
I just saw an IR loop and it looks like he may have wobbled quite a bit north over the last hour. If so, he may be back on track if he was ever south of the track like I thought. Also, what you’re pointing out may be a reason I was deceived into thinking he was S of the projected track.

Edit: I now think he may actually be on track and up to 14.5 N already. I may have been deceived earlier. Let’s see what the NHC has at 11AM.
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11 am has him at 14.6 n and up to 50 mph too.
 
Satellite loop looks like the center may have been slightly displaced to the north of that earlier intense "blob" of convection but now looks like it's trying to wrap around that center... actually looks like it might be getting better organized.

Also I see Recon doing upper air missions, I'd assume those will be in tonight's model output not that I'm expecting too much of a shift
 
11:00 am discussion.....

Satellite images indicate that Jerry continues to become better
organized, with a large curved band wrapping around the center.
While microwave data does not show an inner core yet, the overall
satellite presentation has improved during the past several hours.
The initial wind speed is set to 45 kt, which closely matches
almost all of the available Dvorak estimates and a just-arrived
ASCAT-C scatterometer pass.

Further intensification of Jerry is expected during the next day or
two as the cyclone moves over very warm waters within light shear.
While this type of environment could support even more
strengthening than forecast, there is some substantial dry air
around the cyclone, which is forecast to limit the intensification
rates for now. This forecast leans heavier on the regional
hurricane models HWRF, HMON and COAMPS-TC, which all show a weaker
cyclone than the statistical/dynamical LGEM and SHIPS models.
Most of the guidance shows increasing shear in a couple of days, and
the shear could become somewhat strong by next week. While little
change in strength is indicated beyond Friday, this usually doesn't
happen in reality, and further changes will be necessary as the
environmental factors become more clear.

The initial motion continues to be west-northwestward, or 290/12
kt. The subtropical ridge to the north should steer Jerry at a
faster forward speed for the next couple of days. Afterward, a
northwest to north-northwestward turn, influenced by a weakness in
the aforementioned ridge left behind by Humberto, is expected. The
NHC track forecast is basically an update from the previous advisory
and lies on the left side of the guidance suite, nearest the ECMWF
model and the corrected-consensus forecasts.
 
GaWx said:
Looking again at satellite loops, I think he’s degraded somewhat the last couple of hours though I wouldn’t bet the ranch on that as satellite pics can be deceiving. So, if he has degraded some, I wonder if that’s the reason he may be ~20 miles S of the NHC/model consensus. Does the steering for a weaker system in that area have less of a north component?
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In retrospect, let’s just say this was not one of my better posts! :p
 
He's running with the theory and possibility that the tail of the front gets dropped and Jerry heads west.....


 
I'm starting to wonder if the LLC shifted south to the MLC and that's why we are seeing such a large boom of cold tops in that general location.
 
Ive yet see a storm this year that was modeled ots to end up west. Pretty rare I’m thinking.


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Florence and Matthew (although Matthew was closer before it started shifting west). I'd say this probably remains OTS but it's worth keeping a look-see for at least the next 2-3 days on trends.
 
GaWx said:
Although some 2/3 or so of the 0Z Euro ens members still don't threaten the CONUS (most recurve hundreds of miles offshore though unfortunately many of these do threaten or even hit Bermuda), just over 25% do hit or are about to hit the CONUS. I count 6 in FL (5 pen., 1 pan.), ~3 in TX, one each in NC/SC/GA/LA, and one headed to ~AL. So, 13 hit and 1 is about to hit at the end of the run vs ~10 on the prior run.
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Good news for CONUS folks who don't want Jerry to come by. The 12Z Euro Ens is much less active as regards the CONUS vs the 0Z mentioned above. Whereas the 0Z essentially had ~14 actual TC hits (over 25%), the 12Z has only ~4 legit TC hits: 3 FL pen, and 1 LA/MS.

Edit: The TCs in the Bahamas at hour 240 do later hit FL, but these are NOT from Jerry as they're from a later wave.
 
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GaWx said:
Good news for CONUS folks who don't want Jerry to come by. The 12Z Euro Ens is much less active as regards the CONUS vs the 0Z mentioned above. Whereas the 0Z essentially had ~14 actual TC hits (over 25%), the 12Z has only ~4 legit TC hits: 3 FL pen, and 1 LA/MS.
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I don't think anyone wants Jerry to come by, in, or around.
Speaking for myself, I don't believe the models until its a short timeframe or it happens. Too many whoops for my comfort level.
 
Henry2326 said:
I don't think anyone wants Jerry to come by, in, or around.
Speaking for myself, I don't believe the models until its a short timeframe or it happens. Too many whoops for my comfort level.
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1. I'm sure some readers want it, especially since this is a wx BB. Some have even admitted it though perhaps in a roundabout way. Example:
https://southernwx.com/community/threads/scorchtember.609/page-20#post-198646

They're crazy though (I know @pcbjr agrees 1,000%) and may regret that desire if they were to actually experience it, especially the aftermath.
2. I remain at a 90% chance for a miss of the CONUS. I'm still thinking it is too early to say the US is in the clear despite the VERY strong model guidance in favor of a miss. The issue of a much stronger storm leading to a further south track can't yet be totally eliminated from what I'm reading. However, I'd still easily lay $50 to win $10 on a bet that the CONUS is not hit.
3. I'd go something like 98% chance of no CONUS hit once we know this is not going to go into the Caribbean IF that ends up the case.
 
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GaWx said:
1. I'm sure some readers want it, especially since this is a wx BB. Some have even admitted it though perhaps in a roundabout way. Example:
https://southernwx.com/community/threads/scorchtember.609/page-20#post-198646

They're crazy though (I know @pcbjr agrees 1,000%) and may regret that desire if they were to actually experience it, especially the aftermath.
2. I remain at a 90% chance for a miss of the CONUS. I'm still thinking it is too early to say the US is in the clear despite the VERY strong model guidance in favor of a miss. The issue of a much stronger storm leading to a further south track can't yet be totally eliminated from what I'm reading. However, I'd still easily lay $50 to win $10 on a bet that the CONUS is not hit.
3. I'd go something like 98% chance of no CONUS hit once we know this is not going to go into the Caribbean IF that ends up the case.
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I hope you are right......and I agree.....the aftermath is a b___h.....
 
GaWx said:
1. I'm sure some readers want it, especially since this is a wx BB. Some have even admitted it though perhaps in a roundabout way. Example:
https://southernwx.com/community/threads/scorchtember.609/page-20#post-198646

They're crazy though (I know @pcbjr agrees 1,000%) and may regret that desire if they were to actually experience it, especially the aftermath.
2. I remain at a 90% chance for a miss of the CONUS. I'm still thinking it is too early to say the US is in the clear despite the VERY strong model guidance in favor of a miss. The issue of a much stronger storm leading to a further south track can't yet be totally eliminated from what I'm reading. However, I'd still easily lay $50 to win $10 on a bet that the CONUS is not hit.
3. I'd go something like 98% chance of no CONUS hit once we know this is not going to go into the Caribbean IF that ends up the case.
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The past years we have had TCs provide us with plentiful rain, I’m not saying I want a major Hurricane making landfall, but’s it’s bad either way you go, drought or a cane, at least a TS with a big washout
 
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