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Tropical TS Jerry

GaWx

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Lol, I just noticed we don’t even have a 97L thread. Just in case this does the totally unexpected and threaten the CONUS and because I read some chatter elsewhere (whether warranted or not), I think there should be a thread. 97L is located in the MDR near 40W.

Here are my thoughts fwiw. There are just a few (~10%) of 12Z EPS member outliers to the left that threaten the CONUS, which is more than the one member that the 0Z had. But based on what the EPS has shown at times for Humberto (25-30% of members with CONUS threats on 3 runs), this is nothing. In addition, all non-UKMET major operational dynamic models recurve it east of the CONUS. Remember with Humberto that ALL of the major operationals threatened the US early for a good number of runs. Yes, the UKMET is over to the left near the PR day 6, but it also is very much subject to a left bias and even it turns it sharply north day 7. Furthermore, climo by this late in the season becomes our friend from that position. So, I’m going with an “appears to me to be safe” feeling for at least the time being for the CONUS. That doesn’t mean I’ll keep feeling this way and that I won’t watch, of course! But I’m honestly not worried about this one right now. We need some rest!
 

GaWx

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18z ICON....SAYS 97L may be a problem....


View attachment 23619
I very highly doubt it based on this run because just about every operational run of the major models has something similar at this timeframe. All of these runs have the E coast ridge then at its strongest at this time. Then every model then starts breaking it down soon after, including the 12Z ICON since it goes out further. The problem with the 18Z ICON is that it only goes out 120. I'd bet heavy money that had this run gone out further, the same would have occurred with no threat to the CONUS later in the run. As the ridge would break down, it would easily allow the TC to recurve well offshore the E US. Imo, this is not a setup for a CONUS hit.

I'm currently going with 90% chance of no hit or even bare miss from this and that's if it even ever becomes a TC.
 
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Henry2326

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I very highly doubt it based on this run because just about every operational run of the major models has something similar at this timeframe. All of these runs have the E coast ridge then at its strongest at this time. Then every model then starts breaking it down soon after, including the 12Z ICON since it goes out further. The problem with the 18Z ICON is that it only goes out 120. I'd bet heavy money that had this run gone out further, the same would have occurred with no threat to the CONUS later in the run. As the ridge would break down, it would easily allow the TC to recurve well offshore the E US.

I'm currently going with 90% chance of no hit or even bare miss from this and that's if it even ever becomes a TC.
Frames 105 to 120, shows a west path in the 18z, versus a northwest path in the 12z.


icon_mslp_wind_atl_fh105-120.gif
 

GaWx

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Frames 105 to 120, shows a west path in the 18z, versus a northwest path in the 12z.


View attachment 23620
The 12Z UKMET is also moving west through day 6 and then even it takes a sharp north turn as the ridge gives way to a recurve. I'm very confident this would have turned on the 18Z ICON by day 7. The evidence is there and I've presented my case. Let's see what the 0Z shows. If someone were to offer me winnings of, say, $10, for a $50 bet against a CONUS hit or near miss, I'd lay the $50 in a heartbeat as that would seem to be a pretty easy $10 to win. Would anyone else here do that?

Edit: Happy Hour GEFS: only 1 of 21 members hits the CONUS (NE US) with a legit TC. None of the others are even that close. That should tell us something.

Here's the 12Z UKMET:
ukm2.2019092312.168.lant.troplant.prp.fcst.gentracker.png
 
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GaWx

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The 90 hour 18Z Euro (end of run) is almost right on top of the 0Z Euro's 108, which went on to recurve pretty easily east of the CONUS. It then came close to Bermuda. Let's see what the 18Z EPS shows. But the problem there is that they go out only 144. So, they'll probably not tell us a whole heck of a lot. We'll have to wait for the 0Z for that.

Regardless, until if and when the consensus of operationals actually shows a threat to the CONUS, I expect to go with no hit.
 

PEA_RIDGE

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00Z ICON HAS IT TURNED NORTH AND MAYBE OUT TO SEA BUT DEPENDING ON THE THE TROUGH AND RIDGE MAY CAN GET FATHER NORTH..

ALSO LOOK AT THE THREE (3) YES THREE (3) OTHER L's IT THE ATLANTIC

Capture.JPG
 

metwannabe

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D10 on the EPS gets a little murky to say the least.... with a spread showing a potential all over the place. It really started at 120 when 2 camps started splitting, some north but many continue west slowly. May be a long way to go with this one and one that IF/when it develops may get a better idea from models. That Atlantic ridge says trouble if something is out there
1568721158782.png

1568721130273.png
 

Arcc

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D10 on the EPS gets a little murky to say the least.... with a spread showing a potential all over the place. It really started at 120 when 2 camps started splitting, some north but many continue west slowly. May be a long way to go with this one and one that IF/when it develops may get a better idea from models. That Atlantic ridge says trouble if something is out there
View attachment 23632

View attachment 23631
Looks to me like nothing gets close if the EPS is right. Unless the big ridge centered over the AL/MS builds east, there will be a trough/weakness favored just off the east coast. It will also send any home grown systems into TX or Mexico. In other words, no drought relief at all.
 

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The 0Z/6Z model consensus, including GFS/Euro ensembles, tells me that although the CONUS isn’t safe yet, a recurve E of the CONUS remains heavily favored. Though it is further left than the 12Z, the 0Z UKMET is a left outlier of the dynamic models and it has a left bias, especially when it is a left outlier. Let’s see whether or not that non-UKMET recurve trend continues with the 12Z consensus.
 

GaWx

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Here is the left outlier (of the dynamic operationals) 0Z UKMET, which is on the E edge of Hispaniola at the end of the run:
66957D67-BF58-4252-BCB3-097B320FD480.png
 

KyloG

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Day 5-6 there is a favorable ridge for conus hit around SE Canada but then a couple of troughs swing through and weaken it allowing TD10 to escape. We shall see, the timing of the troughs are always suspect but it seems like this year, so far, these TS's have tracked further east than initially thought.

ecmwf-ens_z500a_atl_fh120-240.gif
 

BirdManDoomW

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Storms usually end up further west...wouldn’t it be something if this one came within 50 miles of the SC coast only to go out to sea. How many of you would quit
 

Henry2326

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11 am NHC discussion......basically they went with the Euro....I probably would have split the baby, considering how good the icon and Ukie were in the last round.

The track guidance is in relatively good agreement
through 72 hours, and brings the cyclone near the northern Leeward
Islands in about 3 days. By late in the period, the cyclone is
expected to reach the western periphery of the ridge, and there is
increasing spread among the guidance. The global model ensemble
means are along the right side of the envelope while the HWRF and
UKMET are along the left side. The NHC track lies close the
consensus aids, which is also in good agreement with the latest
ECMWF.
 

GaWx

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Day 5-6 there is a favorable ridge for conus hit around SE Canada but then a couple of troughs swing through and weaken it allowing TD10 to escape. We shall see, the timing of the troughs are always suspect but it seems like this year, so far, these TS's have tracked further east than initially thought.

View attachment 23642
If the current location were 500 miles further west and heading for the E Caribbean or even if the 0Z UKMET weren’t such a left outlier of the dynamic models, it would already be a scary setup for the CONUS. As it is though, it is not a worry for me at this time but rather just a “to be monitored” to make sure model consensus remains safely offshore.
 
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