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Tropical TS Jerry
- Thread starter GaWx
- Start date
ForsythSnow
Moderator
This looks fun.
Day 5-6 there is a favorable ridge for conus hit around SE Canada but then a couple of troughs swing through and weaken it allowing TD10 to escape. We shall see, the timing of the troughs are always suspect but it seems like this year, so far, these TS's have tracked further east than initially thought.
Storms usually end up further west...wouldn’t it be something if this one came within 50 miles of the SC coast only to go out to sea. How many of you would quit
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
This looks fun.
That track looks like it's either out to sea or a classic NC hit.
00z MOGREPS (UKMET Ensemble):
Henry2326
Member
11 am NHC discussion......basically they went with the Euro....I probably would have split the baby, considering how good the icon and Ukie were in the last round.
The track guidance is in relatively good agreement
through 72 hours, and brings the cyclone near the northern Leeward
Islands in about 3 days. By late in the period, the cyclone is
expected to reach the western periphery of the ridge, and there is
increasing spread among the guidance. The global model ensemble
means are along the right side of the envelope while the HWRF and
UKMET are along the left side. The NHC track lies close the
consensus aids, which is also in good agreement with the latest
ECMWF.
The track guidance is in relatively good agreement
through 72 hours, and brings the cyclone near the northern Leeward
Islands in about 3 days. By late in the period, the cyclone is
expected to reach the western periphery of the ridge, and there is
increasing spread among the guidance. The global model ensemble
means are along the right side of the envelope while the HWRF and
UKMET are along the left side. The NHC track lies close the
consensus aids, which is also in good agreement with the latest
ECMWF.
If the current location were 500 miles further west and heading for the E Caribbean or even if the 0Z UKMET weren’t such a left outlier of the dynamic models, it would already be a scary setup for the CONUS. As it is though, it is not a worry for me at this time but rather just a “to be monitored” to make sure model consensus remains safely offshore.
Henry2326
Member
I would sing hallaluah!
Henry2326
Member
DejavuThis looks fun.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
12z GFS ends up dropping this storm I think thanks to how strong and large Humberto gets. It looks like it ends up helping to elongate the circulation.
Edit: Maybe spoke too soon lol. It might try starting at 102.
Edit: Maybe spoke too soon lol. It might try starting at 102.
12Z UKMET: fish storm way east of the prior two runs
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97L ANALYSED POSITION : 12.9N 44.1W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL972019
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 17.09.2019 0 12.9N 44.1W 1009 23
0000UTC 18.09.2019 12 14.1N 46.0W 1008 25
1200UTC 18.09.2019 24 14.9N 48.0W 1006 30
0000UTC 19.09.2019 36 15.8N 50.6W 1004 31
1200UTC 19.09.2019 48 16.7N 53.7W 1002 37
0000UTC 20.09.2019 60 17.8N 56.5W 1003 42
1200UTC 20.09.2019 72 18.8N 59.5W 1005 41
0000UTC 21.09.2019 84 20.6N 62.3W 1006 40
1200UTC 21.09.2019 96 22.7N 64.4W 1007 36
0000UTC 22.09.2019 108 25.0N 65.0W 1005 36
1200UTC 22.09.2019 120 27.4N 64.2W 996 49
0000UTC 23.09.2019 132 30.1N 62.0W 974 79
1200UTC 23.09.2019 144 34.0N 60.1W 958 85
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97L ANALYSED POSITION : 12.9N 44.1W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL972019
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 17.09.2019 0 12.9N 44.1W 1009 23
0000UTC 18.09.2019 12 14.1N 46.0W 1008 25
1200UTC 18.09.2019 24 14.9N 48.0W 1006 30
0000UTC 19.09.2019 36 15.8N 50.6W 1004 31
1200UTC 19.09.2019 48 16.7N 53.7W 1002 37
0000UTC 20.09.2019 60 17.8N 56.5W 1003 42
1200UTC 20.09.2019 72 18.8N 59.5W 1005 41
0000UTC 21.09.2019 84 20.6N 62.3W 1006 40
1200UTC 21.09.2019 96 22.7N 64.4W 1007 36
0000UTC 22.09.2019 108 25.0N 65.0W 1005 36
1200UTC 22.09.2019 120 27.4N 64.2W 996 49
0000UTC 23.09.2019 132 30.1N 62.0W 974 79
1200UTC 23.09.2019 144 34.0N 60.1W 958 85
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Still feels tug from Humberto on the GFS as a weaker storm.
From 1960-2018, there were 33 T.S.+'s that were first declared a T.D.+ east of 55W and south of 20N within the interval of 9/15-9/25.
Here are the formation dates:
9/19/1963, 9/16/1965, 9/21/1966**, 9/20/1969, 9/21/1971, 9/18/1975, 9/22/1975, 9/21/1981, 9/15/1984, 9/16/1985**, 9/19/1988, 9/16/1989, 9/21/1990, 9/21/1994, 9/24/1996, 9/15/1998**, 9/19/1998, 9/21/1998, 9/21/2000, 9/25/2000, 9/21/2002**, 9/25/2003, 9/16/2004, 9/19/2004, 9/17/2005, 9/25/2007, 9/20/2010, 9/20/2011, 9/24/2011, 9/18/2015, 9/19/2016, 9/16/2017, and 9/22/2018
** = the 4 that later hit the CONUS
So, 4 of these 33 later hit the CONUS or 12% of them. The rest either missed or dissipated in the open ocean. A decent number actually dissipated.
The 4 that hit:
1. Inez (1966): 9/21 genesis ~10N, 35W; hit FL Keys
2. Gloria (1985): 9/16 genesis ~13N, 24W; hit NC OB, NE US
3. Georges (1998): 9/15 genesis ~10N, 25W; hit FL Keys, MS/AL/FL Panhandle
4. Lili (2002): 9/21 genesis ~10N, 45W; hit LA
Will TD #10 be the 5th since 1960 and add to the 12% that hit? I still highly doubt it and this feeling is supported by the 12Z ICON, UKMET, GFS, Legacy, and CMC. But I'll obviously continue to watch since this is far from a done deal being this far out.
Here are the formation dates:
9/19/1963, 9/16/1965, 9/21/1966**, 9/20/1969, 9/21/1971, 9/18/1975, 9/22/1975, 9/21/1981, 9/15/1984, 9/16/1985**, 9/19/1988, 9/16/1989, 9/21/1990, 9/21/1994, 9/24/1996, 9/15/1998**, 9/19/1998, 9/21/1998, 9/21/2000, 9/25/2000, 9/21/2002**, 9/25/2003, 9/16/2004, 9/19/2004, 9/17/2005, 9/25/2007, 9/20/2010, 9/20/2011, 9/24/2011, 9/18/2015, 9/19/2016, 9/16/2017, and 9/22/2018
** = the 4 that later hit the CONUS
So, 4 of these 33 later hit the CONUS or 12% of them. The rest either missed or dissipated in the open ocean. A decent number actually dissipated.
The 4 that hit:
1. Inez (1966): 9/21 genesis ~10N, 35W; hit FL Keys
2. Gloria (1985): 9/16 genesis ~13N, 24W; hit NC OB, NE US
3. Georges (1998): 9/15 genesis ~10N, 25W; hit FL Keys, MS/AL/FL Panhandle
4. Lili (2002): 9/21 genesis ~10N, 45W; hit LA
Will TD #10 be the 5th since 1960 and add to the 12% that hit? I still highly doubt it and this feeling is supported by the 12Z ICON, UKMET, GFS, Legacy, and CMC. But I'll obviously continue to watch since this is far from a done deal being this far out.
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Henry2326
Member
Icon 12z went east too...
When you think about it, 12% seems like high odds actually. Are the odds higher SW of this location?
Edit: I guess my thought was it seems like TS's miss more than they hit so not surprised it's 12%. But on graphic below it looks like the current position actually is maybe 50/50 on a conus hit based on climatology.
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Yeah, ~1 in 8 isn't exactly tiny. I bet they'd be higher W of the TD 10 genesis location (say within 55W-60 W, 10-20N).
Nice map! I count 9 CONUS hits. Do you know the total number of storms on your map? My very rough guess is 27. So, that would be 1 in 3 storm that hit, a pretty large % as you suggested. But, it is important to keep in mind that my ~1 in 8 CONUS hit stat is for only 9/15-25 geneses in that area. And there were no hits for geneses 9/26+ east of 55W and south of 20N. I'd bet that most on your map are for earlier geneses, which would have a higher chance to get to the CONUS. Of the 9 hits on your map, I think I see only 2 that had geneses within 9/15-25: Gloria of 1985 and Georges of 1998. So, unless I'm missing something, 7 of your map's 9 hits were from geneses earlier than 9/15.
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