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Tropical TS Jerry

And based on the overall pattern, the one coming off Africa would be to watch, way to far out, but the nhc forecasts have been horrible this year, so use common sense, nothing is predictable
 
Can we call this storm the storm that had its name stollen at the last minute
 
I'm more interested in the low that follows Jerry. Icon and gfs showing it south, if anything forms of it
 
0Z UKMET: a bit west of the last run but still way NE of the runs from 24 & 36 hours ago. This run ends as an approach to Bermuda:

TROPICAL STORM 10L ANALYSED POSITION : 14.0N 46.0W



ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102019



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 18.09.2019 14.0N 46.0W WEAK

12UTC 18.09.2019 15.0N 48.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 19.09.2019 15.9N 50.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 19.09.2019 16.9N 53.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 20.09.2019 18.0N 56.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 20.09.2019 18.9N 60.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 21.09.2019 20.3N 62.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 21.09.2019 21.6N 64.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 22.09.2019 23.0N 66.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 22.09.2019 24.2N 67.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 23.09.2019 25.3N 67.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 23.09.2019 27.2N 67.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 24.09.2019 29.5N 67.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
 
Although some 2/3 or so of the 0Z Euro ens members still don't threaten the CONUS (most recurve hundreds of miles offshore though unfortunately many of these do threaten or even hit Bermuda), just over 25% do hit or are about to hit the CONUS. I count 6 in FL (5 pen., 1 pan.), ~3 in TX, one each in NC/SC/GA/LA, and one headed to ~AL. So, 13 hit and 1 is about to hit at the end of the run vs ~10 on the prior run.
 
Lol, I smelly smell a lil bust coming up, this storm looks very healthy, if it continues to strengthen, it’s gonna end up way S/W of the guidance, plus that center reformation It had overnight nudged it even further west
 
Hmmmm... 06z Euro, only goes out to 90. The EPS should shed some light here shortly and I'm guessing we see a turn beyond this timeframe. Although worth noting there was a small cluster of 0z EPS members that traveled on to the Bahamas, something to just keep an eye on

1568809763111.png
 
Meh may have to time it just right those troughs that keep dropping through the NE but honestly unless some major changes looks like the ridge axis is good location to protect the SE from any TC. A deep south TC that runs through the Caribbean and IF it could survive could eventually impact western GOM I guess but Jerry ain't that storm imo
 
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