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Tropical TS Jerry

GFS isn't enthused about this storm's possible intensification (which I'd probably lean to being wrong) and the weakness left by Humberto should lead to a safely OTS.

*insert map that leads to me sighing about how the troughs that I'm seeing are not over us but I can't right now because my computer is acting screwy*

Edit: Wow, speak and the GFS delivers.
 
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Jerry, Jerry, Jerry! Please bring us some rain!?
 
ForsythSnow said:
Better question is how are they finding FL winds at cat 3 strength already?
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Yeah that was surprising, pressure dropped at least 6 MB during the mission as well and his appearance has improved quite a bit.....though still not exactly looking that great....
 
I can't wait till Happy Hour for Jerry.
EDIT: Seems to be they are loading it now.
 
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_17.png
 
When looking at the 11AM-5 PM movement, he moved a pretty decent amount to the right of the NHC track, 0.2 W for every 0.1N instead of the projected 0.3W for every 0.1N.

The 11 AM NHC track had him at 17.5N, 56.5W as of 8 PM. But at 5 PM, he was already up to 17.5 N while still only at 55.8 W. So, at 5 PM, he was a whopping 0.7 east of where he was projected to be by the 11 AM advisory when reaching 17.5 N. This has to be good news for those wanting a safe recurve from the CONUS. I'm surprised nobody else mentioned this. My feeling of a 90% chance of no CONUS hit may be raised soon to the 95% area if this right of NHC track continues much longer. The only thing going against a safe recurve are the 6 of 51 (12%) 12Z Euro ens showing a CONUS hit, which is similar to the two prior runs. So that small minority is persisting for the time being. Regardless, they're highly likely to be very wrong just like those Euro ens members looping Humberto back to the US after earlier moving off the SE US coast a few hundred miles. And keep in mind there were THREE Euro ens runs with as much as 25-30% turning Humberto around and hitting the US. In this case, it is only 12%. I currently feel they're wait out to lunch.

Hot off the press: the Happy Hour ICON is well NE of the 12Z run suggesting the 12Z was a fluke run.

Edit: Happy Hour GFS is a little to the right of the 12Z. The fat lady wants to sing and I don't blame her because I'm seeing no trends in the hit CONUS direction, but it is still a bit too early for that imo.
 
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I'll say the organization isn't too bad now, but the wind difference is bad. SW quadrant barely hits TD until a short distance from the eye and then in the NE quadrant there's cat 3 FL winds with possible cat 2 surface winds.
 
18Z EPS 144 (end of run): still has a small minority in a potentially dangerous position though not as small as 12Z and 0Z fwiw:

18Z 144:
D77D1E06-0D84-4E0D-B3D2-19ABD7F218A3.png

12Z 150:
ABB31724-0E6D-4CCF-B7C2-6141E208969C.png

0Z 162:
C1AF1A92-52CB-47E9-9976-D306AF3D3FAB.png
 
Even though it remains a small minority, the EPS won't stop hitting FL with TCs. On the 0Z EPS, I count ~5 FL plus one other one that hits TX. So, ~6 CONUS hits or ~12%.
 
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The 6Z EPS is still another run with a small minority of members in a Conus threatening position at the end. It still won’t completely back down:

6Z 144:
C8A4BC76-20E4-4EAB-A07D-26D37DD33405.png

0Z 150:
13AC958A-3DDC-4439-A336-893CDF6966CE.png
 
GaWx said:
The 6Z EPS is still another run with a small minority of members in a Conus threatening position at the end. It still won’t completely back down:

6Z 144:
View attachment 23749

0Z 150:
View attachment 23750
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I doubt we see Jerry ever make it to the CONUS but it's just enough to keep it interesting, one thing for sure it certainly seems to be pointing to the idea of collapsing stirring currents and slowing down drastically south of Bermuda

1568987525026.png
 
metwannabe said:
Jerry is darn near becoming a naked swirl, really struggling atm
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Great news for the shorter term at least, but for the longer term what might that portend? How does current and progged future steering look at a lower mean level to reflect a weaker system compared to a stronger system? I want to make sure this doesn’t imply a quicker or more westward motion.

Edit: Anyone have links to steering level that @pcbjr posts? I can’t find them at wiki.
 
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I got it from someone:
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=dlm1&zoom=&time=

These things are never constant. Around where he is now, there don’t seem to be large differences. However, further west near the Bahamas it is more westerly toward FL due to surface high pressure to the north that is progged to persist for a few days/not weaken too quickly. I’m just being cautious as I’ve been going and still am going 90% chance of recurve E of CONUS.
 
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Though hard to believe, the 12Z GFs has a very interesting solution with Jerry looping almost all of the way back to where he is now after 288 hours!
 
GaWx said:
Though hard to believe, the 12Z GFs has a very interesting solution with Jerry looping almost all of the way back to where he is now after 288 hours!
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I saw that, looks like it gets sheared apart @144 and some of the energy is left behind to loop back but in a very weakened state...
 
12Z GEFS at hour 120 has more laggards that stay well to the SW (E of Bahamas) vs prior runs. It might be a good idea to make sure this isn't a trend.
 
I was looking on AmericanWX and was seeing a lot about the euro and it needs to be watched for further development of the ridge and slower trough because it came in much further south v previous run but still finds a way to escape
 
Fwiw since it is not a quality ensemble, the 12Z Crazy Uncle ensemble has 3 of 21 members looping west/lagging behind just NE of the Bahamas at hour 96. The prior run had nothing like that.
 
12Z EPS once again says hold your jets because the CONUS is still not yet 100% safe. More later from someone.
 
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