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Tropical TS Jerry

It’s unfortunate, if Jerry was more south, it would have a low chance at making it the the SE, but a better one vs a N track, but would likely be strong with that little area of very favorable upper level conditions, so there almost no possible way this could make it to the SE US as a weak, messy rain maker, it would likely be a buzsaw with a that look (anti cyclonic flow atop the storm) but that tutt cell will possibly add to that NE sling, don’t think this thing will affect the US with that weakness DCB279C9-E96C-4CF3-9E33-A1C55F446094.jpeg
 
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snowcool776 said:
OK, I am new to these techy terms. What is Happy Hour?
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18Z run of models, which come out at ~ 6PM, which happens to be around the time for Happy Hour. Also, the 18Z models have a reputation for more wacky runs than normal (example: the "drunk 18Z GFS") though that can't be easily proven if true.
 
GaWx said:
18Z run of models, which come out at ~ 6PM, which happens to be around the time for Happy Hour. Also, the 18Z models have a reputation for more wacky runs than normal (example: the "drunk 18Z GFS") though that can't be easily proven if true.
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Oh ok. I thought 18Z on tropicaltidbits was 2pm EDT.
 
Tropical Storm Watches issued for Jerry. This means more updates and info for us.
 
Henry2326 said:
Yeah.....he hasn't bought in yet either.....


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Myfrotho704_ said:
It’s unfortunate, if Jerry was more south, it would have a low chance at making it the the SE, but would likely be strong with that little area of very favorable upper level conditions, so there almost no possible way this could make it to the SE US as a weak, messy rain maker, it would likely be a buzsaw with a that look (anti cyclonic flow atop the storm) but that tutt cell will possibly add to that NE sling, don’t think this thing will affect the US with that weakness View attachment 23705
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Models have done horribly with Intensity regarding small systems. Look at Dorian for example. If the stronger members keep the storm further south we could be in business potentially trending towards the US.
 
GaWx said:
1. I'm sure some readers want it, especially since this is a wx BB. Some have even admitted it though perhaps in a roundabout way. Example:
https://southernwx.com/community/threads/scorchtember.609/page-20#post-198646

They're crazy though (I know @pcbjr agrees 1,000%) and may regret that desire if they were to actually experience it, especially the aftermath.
2. I remain at a 90% chance for a miss of the CONUS. I'm still thinking it is too early to say the US is in the clear despite the VERY strong model guidance in favor of a miss. The issue of a much stronger storm leading to a further south track can't yet be totally eliminated from what I'm reading. However, I'd still easily lay $50 to win $10 on a bet that the CONUS is not hit.
3. I'd go something like 98% chance of no CONUS hit once we know this is not going to go into the Caribbean IF that ends up the case.
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Larry, You underestimate the %. ;) Phil
 
GaWx said:
1. I'm sure some readers want it, especially since this is a wx BB. Some have even admitted it though perhaps in a roundabout way. Example:
https://southernwx.com/community/threads/scorchtember.609/page-20#post-198646

They're crazy though (I know @pcbjr agrees 1,000%) and may regret that desire if they were to actually experience it, especially the aftermath.
2. I remain at a 90% chance for a miss of the CONUS. I'm still thinking it is too early to say the US is in the clear despite the VERY strong model guidance in favor of a miss. The issue of a much stronger storm leading to a further south track can't yet be totally eliminated from what I'm reading. However, I'd still easily lay $50 to win $10 on a bet that the CONUS is not hit.
3. I'd go something like 98% chance of no CONUS hit once we know this is not going to go into the Caribbean IF that ends up the case.
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I am not going to say I want a hurricane to hit, because honestly if I had the power to make one hit versus not I would pick not every single time....but I don't have that power.....and I live in eastern NC, I have been in the eye of Bertha and the core of Floyd, Fran ( gusted over 100 ) and Irene......and numerous other lesser hits....I am a unabashed wind junkie I love the sound of the wind blasting in a hurricane, or severe storm or strong Nor'easter or even those blue bird sky windy as hell mixing days we get in March....so while I don't wish for it you can bet your ass when it does hit I am out in my front yard with my Kestrel.....I got a 76mph reading on it in Irene in my YARD.....she mixed them gust down well....

To keep this on topic Jerry sure is not looking like the "fix" my wind junkie habit needs....
 
Downeastnc said:
I am not going to say I want a hurricane to hit, because honestly if I had the power to make one hit versus not I would pick not every single time....but I don't have that power.....and I live in eastern NC, I have been in the eye of Bertha and the core of Floyd, Fran ( gusted over 100 ) and Irene......and numerous other lesser hits....I am a unabashed wind junkie I love the sound of the wind blasting in a hurricane, or severe storm or strong Nor'easter or even those blue bird sky windy as hell mixing days we get in March....so while I don't wish for it you can bet your ass when it does hit I am out in my front yard with my Kestrel.....I got a 76mph reading on it in Irene in my YARD.....she mixed them gust down well....

To keep this on topic Jerry sure is not looking like the "fix" my wind junkie habit needs....
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intervention and rehab ...

got just the fix - 10 days, no power; FEMA camped in the front yard for 4 days rehabbing lines; need I ...

Screen Shot 2019-09-18 at 7.18.21 PM.png
 
pcbjr said:
intervention and rehab ...

got just the fix - 10 days, no power; FEMA camped in the front yard for 4 days rehabbing lines; need I ...

View attachment 23708
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I went through Bertha, Fran, Floyd, Irene...no power after Floyd for a week, Irene caused the house to have to be reshingled, I am well versed with hurricanes and the aftermath....I cant do anything to change the outcome...all I can do is be ready and then witness the raw power of mother nature in a way that most people never do....
 
Jerry sure looks like he is moving more west than north pretty much right down 15N...though it is admittedly hard to be sure where his true "center" is.....
 
Downeastnc said:
I went through Bertha, Fran, Floyd, Irene...no power after Floyd for a week, Irene caused the house to have to be reshingled, I am well versed with hurricanes and the aftermath....I cant do anything to change the outcome...all I can do is be ready and then witness the raw power of mother nature in a way that most people never do....
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Right on ... and do you want it again? Probably/obviously not, which was the whole point here, I think ... just some folks seem to revel in other folks' hurt ... and 'Canes hurt up, down and sideways (mostly the latter ...) ... ;)
 
Downeastnc said:
Jerry sure looks like he is moving more west than north pretty much right down 15N...though it is admittedly hard to be sure where his true "center" is.....
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The 8 PM NHC location (at 15.2 N) is right on track with the 0.2 N x 0.7 W move from 5 PM. So, he, indeed, is moving much more west than north but that is what it is supposed to do.
 
Downeastnc said:
I went through Bertha, Fran, Floyd, Irene...no power after Floyd for a week, Irene caused the house to have to be reshingled, I am well versed with hurricanes and the aftermath....I cant do anything to change the outcome...all I can do is be ready and then witness the raw power of mother nature in a way that most people never do....
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It’s definitely something I wanna experience, but don’t wanna experience, idk lol, but I think I’ll go easily with the rain part, because it’s definitely a issue right now
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
It’s definitely something I wanna experience, but don’t wanna experience, idk lol, but I think I’ll go easily with the rain part, because it’s definitely a issue right now
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Its awesome, and humbling, and I get a rush off it for sure, and honestly the only time I was ever worried was when Fran peaked......we were not expecting gust to the 100-110 mph range and it was middle of the night, power was out everywhere and the sky was a constant flash of green as transformer popped.....and wind was ripping huge trees down all over....you couldn't see it happening but you could hear and feel them fall and smell all the fresh broken limbs and trees.....at one point the carport was lifting up about 6" and we thought it was going to go ( because you know we were outside on the porch which was protected from the wind ) and it was so loud, I mean 70-80 mph gust are rough but for a hr or so there in Fran the winds probably never went below 50-60 mph and then every couple of mins you would hear these monster 90-110 mph gust coming for a solid 10-20 secs before they hit and then they would blast you for 10-20 secs and it would back off to 50-60 and start the whole cycle over with the big gust being 3-4 mins apart it was crazy how it worked like that.......but again wind junkie so 10/10 would do it again, but in the daylight lol... that really is about as bad as I would want to experience, having seen that I know anything beyond that would be no good and not something I would want to go through.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
It’s definitely something I wanna experience, but don’t wanna experience, idk lol, but I think I’ll go easily with the rain part, because it’s definitely a issue right now
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You would be in the perfect spot for Hugo! You could’ve seen atleast 90 MPH gusts and sustained 50-70! I did in Gastonia at the time!
 
Interestingly, the 18Z Euro ens 144, the end of the short 18Z, is actually quite a bit more active in the SW sector than the relatively quiet 12Z’s 150. The problem with this 18Z run, however, is that it doesn’t go out far enough to see how many of those SW members actually hit the CONUS. I suspect though that there’d be a good number more than the handful that are on the 12Z.


Actually, no recent EPS run had a single member hit that soon. The 0Z EPS will be more informative.
 
GaWx said:
Interestingly, the 18Z Euro ens 144, the end of the short 18Z, is actually quite a bit more active in the SW sector than the relatively quiet 12Z’s 150. The problem with this 18Z run, however, is that it doesn’t go out far enough to see how many of those SW members actually hit the CONUS. I suspect though that there’d be a good number more than the handful that are on the 12Z.


Actually, no recent EPS run had a single member hit that soon. The 0Z EPS will be more informative.
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Larry, you got lot of time on your hands LOL!!! Really, thanks man for what you do. You have a true passion with your work here that I like about you. Keep up the good work.
 
pcbjr said:
Right on ... and do you want it again? Probably/obviously not, which was the whole point here, I think ... just some folks seem to revel in other folks' hurt ... and 'Canes hurt up, down and sideways (mostly the latter ...) ... ;)
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Yes but at the end of the day it makes no difference if I revel in a hurricane or not or cheer one on or not. It makes no difference as to whether it impacts me or not . Now when one does just like down east said you best believe my happy ass gon be making the best out of the moment . Then questioning why i even like it after it’s gone and there’s no power or WiFi to view southernwx :eek:
 
GaWx said:
Interestingly, the 18Z Euro ens 144, the end of the short 18Z, is actually quite a bit more active in the SW sector than the relatively quiet 12Z’s 150. The problem with this 18Z run, however, is that it doesn’t go out far enough to see how many of those SW members actually hit the CONUS. I suspect though that there’d be a good number more than the handful that are on the 12Z.


Actually, no recent EPS run had a single member hit that soon. The 0Z EPS will be more informative.
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Can you post what they looked like at the end of their run?
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
Can you post what they looked like at the end of their run?
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I just tried to do it, but something’s messed up. I now can’t load pics from my phone for some reason. I wonder if something’s wrong with the site. Or maybe my phone is screwed up.
 
Ok, I cleared my cache & now it is working.
First, here’s 18Z 144:

02CDFA5A-A7E9-431A-AFB3-9E006AD3CF67.png

Now, here’s the much quieter 12Z 150:
154C830A-2021-4DE5-8D88-53223C1EF50C.png
 
0Z UKMET: west of last 2 runs but still a recurve


TROPICAL STORM JERRY ANALYSED POSITION : 15.5N 51.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 19.09.2019 0 15.5N 51.2W 1005 28
1200UTC 19.09.2019 12 16.4N 54.2W 1002 37
0000UTC 20.09.2019 24 17.3N 56.9W 1000 47
1200UTC 20.09.2019 36 18.0N 59.6W 1000 47
0000UTC 21.09.2019 48 19.2N 62.3W 1000 48
1200UTC 21.09.2019 60 20.3N 65.1W 1003 46
0000UTC 22.09.2019 72 21.7N 67.0W 1000 44
1200UTC 22.09.2019 84 22.9N 68.7W 998 47
0000UTC 23.09.2019 96 24.0N 69.6W 990 52
1200UTC 23.09.2019 108 25.2N 69.3W 981 55
0000UTC 24.09.2019 120 27.3N 67.9W 965 70
1200UTC 24.09.2019 132 29.7N 67.6W 961 70
0000UTC 25.09.2019 144 32.1N 66.4W 952 81
 
Jerry not looking fantastic on sat this morning but the last microwave pass is not horrible and recon should find him almost a hurricane if not already....
 
Only ~6 of the 51 (12%) 6Z EPS members are at hour 144 (end of run) in a position based on movement then to be a CONUS threat (mainly FL/Gulf). The 0Z had about the same number actually hit the CONUS, all FL/Gulf. For now, I’m sticking with 90% chance of no CONUS threat.E9C08E0C-F1A0-4ED4-96CA-3274B738E050.png
 
I'm remembering that Barry didn't look the best either.

but whew, while Jerry has a good shot of getting there at looking better, what I see right now definitely looks like crap. There probably is support in recon though.
 
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