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Tropical TS Fred

Regards to TS Fred today... some personal thoughts...

Definitely mixed signals...
Do I think Fred Strengthens? Yes, but only gradually. Noted in most current visible satellite loops are new hot towers going up on the Eastern side of the LLC obscuring the LLC.

However, with that said, yesterday, we completely saw Fred open into a wave... today...this afternoon, all of a sudden we have a large circulation that spans quite a bit of real estate.. check out the SW feed even as far south as off the Western Shores of Cuba... NW Quadrant of Fred still can see arcus clouds and outflow boundaries on that side.

Quite frankly... I don't think Fred can consolidate and contract his geographical scope down in its relatively short window to see a significant strengthen in winds.. but heavy rains on the other hand...
 
Lickwx said:
Lol east vs west . Everyone arguing cuz they want this lil turd they call a tropical storm ! Y’all can have it I want the big one !
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Barring something wild happening with convection (rapid gain/loss) this thing isn't going to have some big change left or right. It's riding the edge of the eroding SE ridge it seems pretty stable imo
 
I think along and maybe east a little of NHC landfall. I feel like the HWRF cloud forecast looks fairly accurate so far .
 
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SD said:
Barring something wild happening with convection (rapid gain/loss) this thing isn't going to have some big change left or right. It's riding the edge of the eroding SE ridge it seems pretty stable imo
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Our forecast got warmer too , wonder if that had to do with the se ridge strengthening and driving this thing and the one behind it further south and west!
 
Lickwx said:
Our forecast got warmer too , wonder if that had to do with the se ridge strengthening and driving this thing and the one behind it further south and west!
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SE ridges never die.

Our biggest threat but particularly for areas west of us will be the confluence of some Atlantic moisture along with the moisture associated with Fred's circulation.gfs_mslp_pwat_us_fh18-66.gif
 
No need to wishcast when there’s a stalled front combing with tropical moisture everyone wins except those too far west (Alabama/Mississippi, maybe northwest Georgia). You want to be well N/E of the center of the storm which will place the biggest totals over the Appalachian chain and just east with sharp drop offs near Iredell/east in the 2-4” or less. 4-8” common in the west with some 8-12” over the upslope areas of NC.
 
The center might be as far west as its gonna get at this point.....on vis the center is not moving much west, looks to be moving almost north since it crossed 26N....this makes sense with a strong eastside type system....also would be more in line with the shear vector and allow more strengthening albeit that would still be limited I think.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
No need to wishcast when there’s a stalled front combing with tropical moisture everyone wins except those too far west (Alabama/Mississippi, maybe northwest Georgia). You want to be well N/E of the center of the storm which will place the biggest totals over the Appalachian chain and just east with sharp drop offs near Iredell/east in the 2-4” or less. 4-8” common in the west with some 8-12” over the upslope areas of NC.
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You actually make a really good point here...
PRE (Precedessor Rain Event) can and often times are capable of producing tremendous amounts of rain well ahead of the "main" show.. lots of times, the PRE actually steals the show.
 
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