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Tropical TS Fred

bigdawg3 said:
Looks like we might have some towers trying to fire on the south side of the LLC now.
Click to expand...
Tops of those storms over the LLC just get blown right off, still fighting shear which should impede strengthening unless this thing jumps east
 
metwannabe said:
Tops of those storms over the LLC just get blown right off, still fighting shear which should impede strengthening unless this thing jumps east
Click to expand...
ya, you can see on the west side of the storm, the clouds are moving quickly from S to NW. But, your right...if it can tuck itself east it has a better shot for sure.
 
hmon_ref_06L_9.pngNot that it matters and it's probably not right, but HMON is little west this run.
 
12Z UKMET: quite a bit east of the NHC track with it crossing over the FL/GA/AL point and then moving NNE through GA rather than AL:

TROPICAL STORM FRED ANALYSED POSITION : 25.6N 84.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 15.08.2021 0 25.6N 84.6W 1010 30
0000UTC 16.08.2021 12 26.7N 86.0W 1006 36
1200UTC 16.08.2021 24 28.0N 86.1W 1004 35
0000UTC 17.08.2021 36 29.3N 85.8W 1001 38
1200UTC 17.08.2021 48 31.1N 85.0W 1005 30
0000UTC 18.08.2021 60 33.3N 84.0W 1007 24
1200UTC 18.08.2021 72 37.3N 82.3W 1012 15
0000UTC 19.08.2021 84 39.3N 80.2W 1014 25
1200UTC 19.08.2021 96 CEASED TRACKING
 
GaWx said:
12Z UKMET: quite a bit east of the NHC track with it crossing over the FL/GA/AL point and then moving NNE through GA rather than AL:

TROPICAL STORM FRED ANALYSED POSITION : 25.6N 84.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 15.08.2021 0 25.6N 84.6W 1010 30
0000UTC 16.08.2021 12 26.7N 86.0W 1006 36
1200UTC 16.08.2021 24 28.0N 86.1W 1004 35
0000UTC 17.08.2021 36 29.3N 85.8W 1001 38
1200UTC 17.08.2021 48 31.1N 85.0W 1005 30
0000UTC 18.08.2021 60 33.3N 84.0W 1007 24
1200UTC 18.08.2021 72 37.3N 82.3W 1012 15
0000UTC 19.08.2021 84 39.3N 80.2W 1014 25
1200UTC 19.08.2021 96 CEASED TRACKING
Click to expand...
Yep
1629047820131.png
 
Well I think with the prevailing motion/flow and the shear vector this (if anything) would bias east because of it. Btw, have y'all seen that we are getting convection north and some west as well.
 
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