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Tropical TS Fred

More eastern corrections are coming . The north turn appears to have taken place much earlier than the NHc thought


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DadOfJax said:
With the center of this heading up into central AL, the eastern half of AL should see the best of what Fred has to offer.
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With how far east the path has shifted and the current movement, it seems highly improbable the center does anything more than clips the AL border counties. Highest rain will be in the southeastern 1/4 of the state where the center tracks into GA and that likely won't be nearly as much as N GA or SC will see
 
DadOfJax said:
With the center of this heading up into central AL, the eastern half of AL should see the best of what Fred has to offer.
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Have you been paying attention to the modeling today or what’s been talked about on here? The center isn’t heading for central Alabama. The NHC forecast track which is west of the guidance has going through se Alabama before going into GA. Even that track is in big question as on satellite it’s almost due north now. Most likely the 11pm update will be further east.
 
SD said:
I mean the nams seemed to be more north at and after landfall than the globals. The hrrr jumped way left on its last run.
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Based solely on the convective outlook by spc. I'd say they think the track goes through central Alabama. But heck what do I know. Screenshot_20210815-200224.png
 
SD said:
I mean the nams seemed to be more north at and after landfall than the globals. The hrrr jumped way left on its last run.
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Right, models have been showing a NW jump for the last few hours to next 6, but haven't seen it yet. Still looks like its moving almost due N
 
SD said:
Yeah I'm interested to see the recon fixes. With the Tampa radar down and pulsing convection it's hard to judge
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I think any jogs to the west are likely going to be a result of convection trying to wrap around the center. However looking at the steering map that Webb just posted, it’s going to be hard for it to go west too much, and those steering currents should turn it NNE pretty quickly after landfall
 
Chazwin said:
I think any jogs to the west are likely going to be a result of convection trying to wrap around the center. However looking at the steering map that Webb just posted, it’s going to be hard for it to go west too much, and those steering currents should turn it NNE pretty quickly after landfall
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Yeah the hrrr shows this well. It's left initially as convection wraps up some then takes a hard right. Probably evens out to due north as it approaches the coast
 
Accu enjoy your rain . You should see a good amount tonight
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