Love this Radaromega app so far. This is the new track, was updating as I was drawing on it. lol. They def have to keep correcting short term motion more east if it keeps moving almost due north.
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Tropical TS Fred
- Thread starter GaWx
- Start date
Rainforrest
Member
Looks like to southern and eastern escarpment may need a bigger boat.
NHC shifted the track eastward but still west of model consensus after 24 hours:
063
WTNT41 KNHC 152035
TCDAT1
Tropical Storm Fred Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
400 PM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021
Satellite imagery indicates that Fred has become a little better
organized this afternoon. The low-level circulation has become
better defined, and there is a burst of central convection with
additional outer banding in the eastern semicircle. A ship near
the outer band north of the center reported 40-kt winds, so the
initial intensity is increased to 40 kt.
After the re-formation phase this morning, Fred appears to have
resumed a north-northwestward motion of 330/9. The track guidance
shows this motion continuing for another 12 h or so, followed by a
turn toward the north that would bring the center to the coast of
the Florida Panhandle in 24-36 h. A general north-northeastward
motion is likely after 36 h until the system dissipates. The track
guidance has shifted eastward again, this time due to the models
forecasting an earlier turn to the north and a more east-of-north
motion after landfall. The new NHC forecast track also is shifted
a little to the east, but after 24 h it lies a little to the west
of the various consensus models.
Upper-level southwesterly flow between a trough to the north and
northwest of Fred and an anticyclone to the southeast of the storm
should keep the tropical cyclone in moderate southwesterly
vertical shear until landfall. However, the intensity guidance
continues to forecast strengthening, and the GFS, HWRF, and HMON
show a stronger Fred at landfall than they did 6 h ago. Based on
that and the increased current intensity, the pre-landfall
intensities have been nudged upward. After landfall, Fred should
quickly weaken and dissipate as it moves into the Tennessee Valley
just after 60 h.
Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track of
Fred, since rainfall, storm surge, and wind hazards will extend
over an area well east of the center.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Today through Tuesday, heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban,
small stream, and isolated river flooding impacts across portions of
southern Florida, the Big Bend and Panhandle of Florida, southeast
Alabama, portions of Georgia, and the western Carolinas. From
Tuesday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could continue into
other portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central
Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the
area.
2. Dangerous storm surge inundation is possible along portions of
the coast of the Florida Panhandle and the Florida Big Bend region,
and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for this area. Interests in
these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.
3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm
Warning area in the Florida Panhandle beginning on Monday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/2100Z 26.8N 85.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 27.8N 86.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 29.5N 86.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 31.3N 86.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 17/1800Z 33.3N 85.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
60H 18/0600Z 35.8N 84.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED
063
WTNT41 KNHC 152035
TCDAT1
Tropical Storm Fred Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
400 PM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021
Satellite imagery indicates that Fred has become a little better
organized this afternoon. The low-level circulation has become
better defined, and there is a burst of central convection with
additional outer banding in the eastern semicircle. A ship near
the outer band north of the center reported 40-kt winds, so the
initial intensity is increased to 40 kt.
After the re-formation phase this morning, Fred appears to have
resumed a north-northwestward motion of 330/9. The track guidance
shows this motion continuing for another 12 h or so, followed by a
turn toward the north that would bring the center to the coast of
the Florida Panhandle in 24-36 h. A general north-northeastward
motion is likely after 36 h until the system dissipates. The track
guidance has shifted eastward again, this time due to the models
forecasting an earlier turn to the north and a more east-of-north
motion after landfall. The new NHC forecast track also is shifted
a little to the east, but after 24 h it lies a little to the west
of the various consensus models.
Upper-level southwesterly flow between a trough to the north and
northwest of Fred and an anticyclone to the southeast of the storm
should keep the tropical cyclone in moderate southwesterly
vertical shear until landfall. However, the intensity guidance
continues to forecast strengthening, and the GFS, HWRF, and HMON
show a stronger Fred at landfall than they did 6 h ago. Based on
that and the increased current intensity, the pre-landfall
intensities have been nudged upward. After landfall, Fred should
quickly weaken and dissipate as it moves into the Tennessee Valley
just after 60 h.
Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track of
Fred, since rainfall, storm surge, and wind hazards will extend
over an area well east of the center.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Today through Tuesday, heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban,
small stream, and isolated river flooding impacts across portions of
southern Florida, the Big Bend and Panhandle of Florida, southeast
Alabama, portions of Georgia, and the western Carolinas. From
Tuesday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could continue into
other portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central
Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the
area.
2. Dangerous storm surge inundation is possible along portions of
the coast of the Florida Panhandle and the Florida Big Bend region,
and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for this area. Interests in
these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.
3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm
Warning area in the Florida Panhandle beginning on Monday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/2100Z 26.8N 85.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 27.8N 86.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 29.5N 86.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 31.3N 86.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 17/1800Z 33.3N 85.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
60H 18/0600Z 35.8N 84.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED
Brent
Member
Given what we’ve seen in guidance today as well as just simply tracking on satellite, I would definitely lean on the east edge of that cone. If it does come up more east, the area of heaviest rainfall may also be expanded further eastward in GA and the Carolinas
Stormsfury
Member
Speaking of PREs, we got into it today with off and on heavy rain and occasional heavy booming thunder during the day..
Picked up about 2" today but KCHS ended up getting walloped... .85" one hour, followed by 2.78" more next hour! Looks like they are close to 4" officially!
Seems like convection blowing up right over the LLC again, Dmax time I suppose.... see if this sustains and helps strengthen it at all. And looks like Recon is heading that way, thank goodness
Doesn't look like it to me
ForsythSnow
Moderator
On the positive side we do have recon heading in rn so we'll see in an hour or so how Fred's doing
NoSnowATL
Member
Jessy89
Member
Rain gage ready for Fred think it will fill up?
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Pressure has been falling at this buoy SW of Fred all afternoon even as Fred has been pulling away. No doubt the storm is deepening.
www.ndbc.noaa.gov
NDBC - Station 42003 Recent Data
National Data Buoy Center - Recent observations from buoy 42003 (25.925N 85.616W) - East GULF - 208 NM West of Naples, FL.
I think Fred is going to make a run here. Maybe a 65-70 at landfall. And NHC is going to have to adjust east again I think.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Getting some nice towers around the center now from what I can tell with recon closing in. Will see what they find
It's going to have to have more west in the movement than it does to hit that mark.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Seeing extrapolated at 1002 on approach to the center, Fred's strengthening