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Tropical TS Fred

Downeastnc said:
The center might be as far west as its gonna get at this point.....on vis the center is not moving much west, looks to be moving almost north since it crossed 26N....this makes sense with a strong eastside type system....also would be more in line with the shear vector and allow more strengthening albeit that would still be limited I think.
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Convective tugging ... before the blowup occurred, it definitely appeared the LLC was moving just barely west of due N..

Also look at Fred's cloud mass structure... very much orientated N/S in overall structure.
 
Cruso, NC would be ideal place to see 12”. They saw 17” with Ivan. Believe the 6-12” will extend north-east past Sparta, NC into the blue ridge of Virginia.
 
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Stormsfury said:
You actually make a really good point here...
PRE (Precedessor Rain Event) can and often times are capable of producing tremendous amounts of rain well ahead of the "main" show.. lots of times, the PRE actually steals the show.
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You correct about that. My area got into one as Michael was making landfall on the panhandle and that was a full day before the center moved through here. We ended up getting over 4 inches of rain from that when there wasn’t but a 40 percent chance forecasted.
 
Ole Fred is looking rather spiffy this afternoon. With another 24 hours or so before landfall, does the NHC issue hurricane watches or maybe even a warning on the 5 PM update? I thought they might at 11 AM, now I'd be surprised if they don't.
 
30% chance imo very little rain 1-2” or less than that for north west Georgia into extreme south-western NC IF the models were to keep correcting east it wouldn’t take 50 milestone quickly bring the drop off totals.
 
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