Tropical TS Fred

[NickyBGuarantee]

Here you go for all wanting … watch out in that bullseye .. I’m confident someone gets a tornado In there

 

[Rain Cold]

Here you go for all wanting … watch out in that bullseye .. I’m confident someone gets a tornado In there View attachment 88505View attachment 88506

What do the colors represent? I don't see a legend.

 

[SD]

What do the colors represent? I don't see a legend.

Here's one with a legend

 

[Showmeyourtds]

Damn…lots of water

 

[GaWx]

This is the 24 hour radar estimated rainfall from WSI ending at 8AM EDT this morning:

 

[Zander98al]

Here you go for all wanting … watch out in that bullseye .. I’m confident someone gets a tornado In there View attachment 88505View attachment 88506

That forecast projection pretty much hit the bullseye on Elsa tropical tornadoes

 

[BirdManDoomW]

Wow those are bigger I guess due to uncertainty or expecting multiple tornado touch downs. The experimental odds were a much smaller area for the recent New Jersey and Illinois tornadoes down to the exact county!

 

[DadOfJax]

Eastern AL, GA, and parts of SC really catching it from Fred. Will need to continue to watch the westward trends, as the center is passing well west of ATL. Eastern TN and WV are next in line.

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

All kinds of events today. 2.7 earthquake near Morganton in western NC.

 

[BirdManDoomW]

? Based on current position the N/E quad of Frank looks to squarely hit upstate SC and go into the mtns/foothills of NC.

 

[Zander98al]

Based on current position the N/E quad of Frank looks to squarely hit upstate SC and go into the mtns/foothills of NC.

It's Fred dood lol

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[GaWx]

Fred has been tracking well west of what the UKMET showed on runs the last few days. They had him go NNE from the far SW corner of GA to east of ATL. Not a good performance at all on the track to this point.

 

[BirdManDoomW]

May wanna watch the storm north of Charlotte growing in this tropical swamp

 

[BirdManDoomW]

Fred has been tracking well west of what the UKMET showed on runs the last few days. They had him go NNE from the far SW corner of GA to east of ATL. Not a good performance at all on the track to this point.

I think that’s why we are seeing favorable upslope and longer period of Atlantic moisture coming ashore. Perfect track for a mess.

 

[J.C.]

Fred has been tracking well west of what the UKMET showed on runs the last few days. They had him go NNE from the far SW corner of GA to east of ATL. Not a good performance at all on the track to this point.

This was the 12km 12z model run from Sunday, looks about right.

 

[BufordWX]

Tornado in Banks county.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

That’s a nasty QLCS on the hrrr later oth starting to get some rotating showers

 

[BirdManDoomW]

Beat me to it, FV3 hi-res and HRRR look ? rough for NC. NAM looks goofy with its handle of precip shield it doesn’t match any of the short term cams.

 

[NE Ga Wx]

tornado sirens going off here and phones are going crazy. this is Habersham in ne ga

 

[BufordWX]

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

That’s a nasty QLCS on the hrrr later View attachment 88520oth starting to get some rotating showers View attachment 88518View attachment 88519

Damn even gives wake county a couple waves of storms .. I doubt we can get into that main line but I’ll hope we can get a sniff

 

[Zander98al]

Tornado in Banks county.View attachment 88517

Was way hing that one. It's a nasty one. They extended the tornado warning

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[BirdManDoomW]

 

[Zander98al]

I could see a stronger tornado today if any little mesocyclone hits a sweet spot

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[Avalanche]

Wonder if we can get the SE squall line to train through the Triangle.

 

[BirdManDoomW]

A few beans need to be monitored from Shelby to Statesville. May need to expand the tornado watch early.

 

[Zander98al]

View attachment 88521

That tornado is still on the ground. It's actually looking a little healthier than me. A tiny CC dot is poking out. But how high the radar beams are hitting doesn't give it a good representation. Because it's picking up higher on the storm cause the radar is far away.

 

[BufordWX]

Another tornado warning near Hartwell, GA.

 

[BufordWX]

That tornado is still on the ground. It's actually looking a little healthier than me. A tiny CC dot is poking out. But how high the radar beams are hitting doesn't give it a good representation. Because it's picking up higher on the storm cause the radar is far away.

Damage reports already in Banks county.

 

[Zander98al]

Loks like it's dissipated now. But more warnings to come I guarantee. For others areas

 

[Zander98al]

Twin tornadoes?

 

[J.C.]

Past 24 hours as of 11 AM.

 

[BirdManDoomW]

Interesting to see where that sunshine entering rock hill sc goes does it rotate west? Hmm

 

[SD]

24HR totals from MRMS

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Man the hrrr is uptrending tonight for the Charlotte area-north....

 

[LovingGulfLows]

24HR totals from MRMS
View attachment 88526

I honestly think these radar estimates tend to underestimate tropical rainfall totals since it tends to be more efficient than your typical rainfall from a front or extra-tropical cyclone.

 

[NE Ga Wx]

I honestly think these radar estimates tend to underestimate tropical rainfall totals since it tends to be more efficient than your typical rainfall from a front or extra-tropical cyclone.

yes I think so in this instance. I am in Cornelia and my rain gauge is overflowing and it is a 6" gauge.

 

[SD]

I honestly think these radar estimates tend to underestimate tropical rainfall totals since it tends to be more efficient than your typical rainfall from a front or extra-tropical cyclone.

Yeah that seems to be the case. Supposedly the experimental mrms data cut that bias a good bit. I'm not sure how the map I posted compares to observational data or if the mrms I have access to is the latest and greatest

 

[SD]

yes I think so in this instance. I am in Cornelia and my rain gauge is overflowing and it is a 6" gauge.

looks like MRMS was a little short



Ps didn't want to be a creeper here like @NickyBGuarantee just wanted to do a comparison

 

[NoSnowATL]

4.50in