Tropical TS Fred

[Metwannabe]

Good 'ol 3k NAM haha and takes it right over Destin, Fl. Btw, my sister and husband from Ft. Walton Beach, Fl here and now might have to go back a little earlier to try to beat Fred

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Fred has a solid chance at running at a min CAT 1 I think on approach .. that’s going to be max potential I think

 

[Chazwin]

HRRR at landfall
View attachment 88256View attachment 88257

Much further east than what we were seeing yesterday. Gotta believe if he strengthens to a strong tropical storm or even minimal cat 1 that there is going to be a tornado threat across the FL Panhandle, GA, and western/central NC/SC

 

[Metwannabe]

NHC shifting track east due to relocation/reforming of LLC but still only modest strengthening. Seems shear should plague Fred till LF, we shall see

 

[SD]

3k is probably full of it but

Gusts

10m wind

 

[Metwannabe]

 

[Metwannabe]

3k is probably full of it but

Gusts
View attachment 88263
10m wind
View attachment 88264

Yeah I think it's full of it and hope it is, that is directly on top of my sister's house

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

The 11 AM update is going to be interesting. I wonder if the NHC will issue a hurricane watch along with the inevitable TS warning? I suspect so.

Welp, the NHC certainly isn't bullish on much strengthening. They're counting on SW shear to keep Fred in check.

 

[GaWx]

This is setting up to bring unneeded heavy rain for the Atlanta area. Most of that area has had above normal rainfall this summer and thus this could be setting them up for flooding concerns. The NHC projected track is the type of track that often brings them multiple inches of rain within a short period. Fortunately, it looks to not be a slow mover, however (more like average speed for a TC in that area in August).

 

[deltadog03]

I think we could see a 60-70 mph at landfall. Very possible

 

[Jessy89]

This is setting up to bring unneeded heavy rain for the Atlanta area. Most of that area has had above normal rainfall this summer and thus this could be setting them up for flooding concerns.

Flooding gonna be significant unless it busts.
That bullseye of 4-6 parts of upstate ne Georgia western Nc. Need the rain but not this much

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[NickyBGuarantee]

3k is probably full of it but

Gusts
View attachment 88263
10m wind
View attachment 88264

Yeah this would be high end possibility IMO we’ve seen how rapid intensification can do upon landfall … we will see how wrapped up he can get before then

 

[Brent]

Satellite presentation is the best it's ever been

 

[accu35]

Just watched TWC, they were showing gfs had a Destin LF but majority of the ens were west of that. Depends on the NNW motion of how long it will go before the turn.

 

[deltadog03]

Satellite presentation is the best it's ever beenView attachment 88268

I agree and if it can tuck the LLC a bit east it could get going quicky

 

[deltadog03]

Just watched TWC, they were showing gfs had a Destin LF but majority of the ens were west of that. Depends on the NNW motion of how long it will go before the turn.

ENS are not as reliable IMO at this point. I think a near Destin to PCB looks likely.

 

[deltadog03]

And to me, it looks like Fred is moving very slowly. Zoomed in and the LLC looks almost stationary.

 

[Snowfan]

GFS now has it strengthening to 995 mb.

 

[bigdawg3]

Satellite presentation is the best it's ever beenView attachment 88268

Looks like we might have some towers trying to fire on the south side of the LLC now.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

And to me, it looks like Fred is moving very slowly. Zoomed in and the LLC looks almost stationary.

Looks like convection is increasing near the LLC too. Mainly to the east. Now let's see if this continues and is able to begin wrapping around to the north of the exposed center.