ForsythSnow
Moderator
Seems to also be much further East than the forecast track has it. I expect the cone to leap east at 11.
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Tropical TS Fred
- Thread starter GaWx
- Start date
Agreed. They are going to have to shift east IMO
HugeSnowStick
Member
So the original crawl up the west GA border looks likely?
Jessy89
Member
Last night when I was looking at radar. Almost looked like the center was trying to reform close to key west. NHC hasn’t really been to accurate with the exact location of the center of it. Hints why the track gonna shift back east. While the cmc could be a little aggressive on rain totals it’s been consistent on the bullseye and footprint of heavy rain. So I do expect a shift east with track with all the heavy rain on the east side as well.
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Last edited:
Jessy89
Member
So you said it is going to shift back west or east?Last night when I was looking at radar. Almost looked like the center was trying to reform close to key west. NHC hasn’t really been to accurate with the exact location of the center of it. Hints why the track gonna shift back west. While the cmc could be a little aggressive on rain totals it’s been consistent on the bullseye and footprint of heavy rain. So I do expect a shift east with track with all the heavy rain on the east side as well.
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Jessy89
Member
East sorry thanks for pointing that out. It’s going to shift back east
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HugeSnowStick
Member
I really wouldn't be too concerned with wind issues that far inland, heavy rain is however a good possibility
First visible images what you think, looks like it may be about right here and just starting to see some towers going up over it. Of course recon should tell us something definitive real quick and I think we will be back to TS status soon
Fred.....you back?
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Yep
000
WTNT61 KNHC 151241
TCUAT1
Tropical Storm Fred Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
840 AM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021
...REMNANTS OF FRED RE-DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL STORM...
Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Fred has regained tropical storm status over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Tropical Storm Warnings will be
issued for portions of the northern Gulf coast on the 11 AM EDT/
10 AM CDT/1500 UTC advisory.
SUMMARY OF 840 AM EDT...1240 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.9N 84.7W
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SSE OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
$$
Forecaster Beven
I wouldn't be surprised if Fred takes a shot at getting to like 60-70 mph at landfall either.
HugeSnowStick
Member
IR Satellite Loop for United States | Tropical Tidbits
United States IR Satellite Loop
www.tropicaltidbits.com
Looks like the mid level rotation is still a little displaced to the east of the LLC but man with that deep convection, if shear lessens and those two align we might see another one of those ramp up all the way to LF systems.
Jessy89
Member
Could we see a surprise cat 1 hurricane by landfall? I mean the gulf is warm just the shear. Is it really a stretch to say there a small chance of a 75mph cane at landfall?
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