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Tropical TS Fred

Yikes per radar a “PRE” has already setup north west of Charlotte with training of tropical flooding. Hickory area but likely going to expand this evening. 5AEADC80-C6B2-4294-BFFA-4B5277DA5296.jpeg
 
deltadog03 said:
I would say here comes Fred's final push...new convention over the COC and looks to be moving like NNNNNNE...lol
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Yeah pressure up 1 to 994mb and seems to have leveled off, also looks like the center is on the SE side of that deep convective burst, so shear seems to have prevented it from stacking and probably prevents it from cane status. But still a few hours over water so never know
 
Rip he won’t make it to Hurricane … he tried his damn best .. still a sexy looking tropical storm .. but alas just a tropical storm … the real beaut to look at might be grace soon
 
metwannabe said:
There was that one NW jump but per recon back to N/NE, however S/SE Al will surely see some rain and center could clip Dothan I suppose

View attachment 88421
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The west of north component will continue until it closes in on the stalled boundary, or it becomes better organized on its eastern side. The convective tug isnt over.
 
metwannabe said:
Fred gave it a go but seems unlikely it will make hurricane strength before LF (dry air intrusion probably capped it), still a formidable TS considering it was just an open wave basically a couple days ago
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As far as effects on the SE US, it likely wouldn’t have made much difference, regardless, other than the immediate area and just to the right at landfall. Just as was the case with Elsa, this is a very wet and formidable TS as you said. The amount of cumulative rainfall and overall effects from tropical systems on the SE through mid August is way above average.

My area had plentiful rainfall this morning, likely over 1”, from outer moisture feed off the ocean. The wet summer continues here.
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fred Intermediate Advisory Number 28A...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
100 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021

Corrected latitude in summary block.

...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND FLOODING RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND REGION AS FRED APPROACHES THE
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.4N 85.5W
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM SW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES
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Fred now at 65 mph.
 
thats a solid area avg sounding over the SW piedmont of NC/upstate of SC, quite large low level hodographs with solid streamwise vort signals storms are gonna have easy access to the 200-250 of 1km helicty, prob wont be lots of taller convection but instead low topped stuff munching on the low level instability 1629136337672.png
 
metwannabe said:
I'm sure it will resume northward movement once inland, maybe, but interesting it looks to make LF east of any model projection. HRRR might have been the closest?
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It looks fairly close to what the HRRR was showing yesterday afternoon. In fact it looks as though it’s pretty much following the eastern edge of the cone from yesterday’s 5pm forecast track
 
BufordWX said:
First shower from Fred has arrived. Didn’t look like much on radar, but getting a rather solid downpour right now. Much more to come.View attachment 88439
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Is that your home or @ SD’s house? ??
Seems to be a thing around here!
 
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