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Tropical TS Elsa

Cary_Snow95 said:
I see people saying the data collected this morning was garbage and thats why that run was weak
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That's a weenie argument as old as message boards very similar to my dew is 18 and 1 degree lower than forecast on Tuesday it'll be lower than the models show on Friday
 
This euro run is interesting. It opens up at 850 and splits with some of the energy helping fire something up just off SC and the southern end going w near Miami ecmwf_uv850_vort_watl_fh24-96.gif
 
SD said:
This euro run is interesting. It opens up at 850 and splits with some of the energy helping fire something up just off SC and the southern end going w near Miami View attachment 86069
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Some love to say they lean towards the GFS because it has been so consistent, well Euro hasn't really backed down either.... will be interesting to see how it plays out. Would be nice if it played out without all the "see I told you so" post but I digress haha
 
metwannabe said:
Some love to say they lean towards the GFS because it has been so consistent, well Euro hasn't really backed down either.... will be interesting to see how it plays out. Would be nice if it played out without all the "see I told you so" post but I digress haha
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To be fair the Euro has moved left and held on to a stronger vort longer through at least the last 3 runs. But with the gfs going weaker and right you have to think we are more getting a better consensus than anything. Crazy to think the cmc might end up doing very well if you split the gfs and euro
 
metwannabe said:
Some love to say they lean towards the GFS because it has been so consistent, well Euro hasn't really backed down either.... will be interesting to see how it plays out. Would be nice if it played out without all the "see I told you so" post but I digress haha
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The I told you so happens when you completely disregard the other side of things and trash the people who are on that side . It’s sad , I’ll try to hold myself if I get that chance but hey. I can’t promise :p
 
It just comes down to 2 camps. Euro weak dissipates and gfs more together. I wanna see what the EPS does. 0z had many more members in the EGOM.
 
deltadog03 said:
It just comes down to 2 camps. Euro weak dissipates and gfs more together. I wanna see what the EPS does. 0z had many more members in the EGOM.
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I think the GFS camp is more realistic. I don’t think the Euro is that realistic.
 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
Looks like the 18Z guidance wants this more in the gulf.
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A gulf route would mean less island interaction .. and also remember (I forgot which storm it was) that storm in a recent season that skirted the coast of Cuba and that actually helped enhance the core? Could be an interesting analog
 
That whole going through the shredder theory was already in the minority but this thing looks more and more like its going to go into the gulf and I personally think the panhandle is at much more risk than even the west coast of Florida. Also you're seeing a lot more of the spaghetti models going over georgia and the upstate so hopefully we can get a good soaking.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
A gulf route would mean less island interaction .. and also remember (I forgot which storm it was) that storm in a recent season that skirted the coast of Cuba and that actually helped enhance the core? Could be an interesting analog
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If this thing manages avoid any of the higher peaks of the mountains and manages to not to ride the FL coast- Elsa could definitely become a much stronger storm. Regardless, this looks like this will be a substantial rain maker for GA and the Carolina's. Which is good news. Not so sure about the winds inland, but that could become an issue too if things tend more towards a Panhandle landfall.
 
ryan1234 said:
If this thing manages avoid any of the higher peaks of the mountains and manages to not to ride the FL coast- Elsa could definitely become a much stronger storm. Regardless, this looks like this will be a substantial rain maker for GA and the Carolina's. Which is good news. Not so sure about the winds inland, but that could become an issue too if things tend more towards a Panhandle landfall.
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If it truly has a clear path through the gulf and up towards the big bend area , then you will start seeing everybody posting the over inflated NAM winds and gusts maps for the Carolinas
 
ryan1234 said:
If this thing manages avoid any of the higher peaks of the mountains and manages to not to ride the FL coast- Elsa could definitely become a much stronger storm. Regardless, this looks like this will be a substantial rain maker for GA and the Carolina's. Which is good news. Not so sure about the winds inland, but that could become an issue too if things tend more towards a Panhandle landfall.
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The thing that I’m worried about is what happens when this trough pulls out. It looks as though the trough will allow to pull north, but then the trough pulls out and the storm should move around the periphery of the Bermuda high as it builds back in. Does the storm continue to move steadily or does it slow down a lot and increase the inland flood threat
 
Tarheel1 said:
If it truly has a clear path through the gulf and up towards the big bend area , then you will start seeing everybody posting the over inflated NAM winds and gusts maps for the Carolinas
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Yeah, those maps are always way overdone. But if this thing has enough forward speed and this system doesn't weaken like some modeling suggest, we could have some issues.
 
I’m not quite sold on intensity. The VDM I’m looking at still does not list an eyewall and banding around the center is still lackluster on IR. I’m gonna wait and see if it can sustain intensity for a bit before I start guessing on farther intensification.
 
Tarheel1 said:
If it truly has a clear path through the gulf and up towards the big bend area , then you will start seeing everybody posting the over inflated NAM winds and gusts maps for the Carolinas
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Nam didn’t do to bad with zeta! That one was quite windy well inland


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Arcc said:
I’m not quite sold on intensity. The VDM I’m looking at still does not list an eyewall and banding around the center is still lackluster on IR. I’m gonna wait and see if it can sustain intensity for a bit before I start guessing on farther intensification.
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Cant help but think about that part in the 11am of a poorly defined 700mb center. Until this thing slows down I personally believe theres still room for rapid weakening in the event of major wind interaction or decoupling. Wouldnt take much. Of course on the flip side if it develops a better upper circulation and stays stacked then strengthening more is also possible.
 
Shaggy said:
Cant help but think about that part in the 11am of a poorly defined 700mb center. Until this thing slows down I personally believe theres still room for rapid weakening in the event of major wind interaction or decoupling. Wouldnt take much. Of course on the flip side if it develops a better upper circulation and stays stacked then strengthening more is also possible.
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Agreed but can’t help but think about the past days euro and gfs runs .. whos has been more “right” euro barely showed any development and we have a hurricane today …
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Agreed but can’t help but think about the past days euro and gfs runs .. whos has been more “right” euro barely showed any development and we have a hurricane today …
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This is true, however you can have have an intensity burst without organization such as intensity increases when you have a strong convective burst due to shear and then wanes as the burst dissipates. In this case you can’t really blame the models or use it to discount future intensity or track.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Agreed but can’t help but think about the past days euro and gfs runs .. whos has been more “right” euro barely showed any development and we have a hurricane today …
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Sure the euro has not been good at all in those regards but current real time data shows some serious vulnerabilities with this system as it approaches some pretty significant shear.

A storm moving west at 20mph into 20kts of northwesterly shear is going to have serious issues.
 
Shaggy said:
Cant help but think about that part in the 11am of a poorly defined 700mb center. Until this thing slows down I personally believe theres still room for rapid weakening in the event of major wind interaction or decoupling. Wouldnt take much. Of course on the flip side if it develops a better upper circulation and stays stacked then strengthening more is also possible.
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Yeah we should know which direction the current intensification cycle will go. If sustained banding develops along with an eyewall we can start looking at the HWRF being believable if it doesn’t it could weaken rapidly.
 
Brent said:
Fun fact if Elsa forms in the next few days it'll be a record for early(which was set last year...)


A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is
located about midway between the west coast of Africa and the
Windward Islands. This system is producing a large area of showers
and thunderstorms that are starting to show some signs of
organization. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable
for development, and a tropical depression could form during the
next few days while the system moves west-northwestward at about 20
mph. Interests in the Windward and Leeward Islands should closely
monitor this system as it will likely be moving through that region
on Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
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I'm guessing you meant the earliest 5th named storm in a season?
 
Elsa is falling apart. Its vertical structure looks like the Leaning Tower of Pisa if it had been stacked it upon multiple other towers slanting towards varying directions. The circulation of higher and lower cloud tops aren't aligned anymore. The 500Mb low is influenced towards the NW, the 700Mb is lopsided way east, and the 925 Mb looks like its stretched south.
 
Tornadocane said:
Elsa is falling apart. Its vertical structure looks like the Leaning Tower of Pisa if it had been stacked it upon multiple other towers slanting towards varying directions. The circulation of higher and lower cloud tops aren't aligned anymore. The 500Mb low is influenced towards the NW, the 700Mb is lopsided way east, and the 925 Mb looks like its stretched south.
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Recent blow up of thunderstorms just popped and is spinning around again … should maintain hurricane strength
 
Henry2326 said:
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Yep small core = significant shifts in strength either way and also makes it hard for global resolution models to pick up on the exultation as well.. seeing an eastward shift in guidance for sure tonight but don’t know if that’s a good or bad thing long term
 
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