-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Tropical TS Elsa
- Thread starter Cary_Snow95
- Start date
iGRXY
Member
Every year the NHC kinda wets the bed when forecasting hurricane strength. Can't tell you how many times we saw Tropical systems gain strength very quickly and much stronger than they predicted. Until that cycle breaks or this thing just runs over Hispaniola, I think we're going to see a hurricane make landfall somewhere in the panhandle of Florida.
NoSnowATL
Member
I think the shredder rips it apart..... we shall see.
Downeastnc
Member
St Vincent is a big risk for mudslides etc due to the volcanic activities this year.......them folks cant catch a break and this could be a long tropical season for the Antilles.
Tornadocane
Member
I just arrived home from the Publix in Cooper City with a full tank of gas, eight 24-packs of bottled water, 4 gallons more of the wet stuff, and plenty of food for my Hurricane party. This storm is moving so fast that people aren't going to have time to (or just won't) prepare during the July 4th weekend. So there's no time to F around.
Interesting, how much does rapid forward speed affect those winds in the NE quadrant? I mean as Allan notes this is TS type pressures
BHS1975
Member
Yeah that track is too close to the highest peaks.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Avalanche
Member
This will get the job done!!!!
It adds if I'm not mistaken
Downeastnc
Member
I dunno, unless the entire inner core is not disrupted then the storm can find ways to survive......or even strengthen even with part of the circulation disrupted over land etc...In this case the fast forward speed would mitigate weakening over Cuba. Then it has a solid day and a half over water before landfall again in Florida....this could easily be a cane hitting Florida.
I see a 998?
Cary_Snow95
Member
It got taken while the plane was rising in elevation. Contaminated numbers. Another dropsonde into the core just now got 1003
BHS1975
Member
I sure hope the fleet is in good shape this year as they will be slammed.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Brent
Member
Ugh remember all the problems last year. Those planes are older than some of us
Josh knows best .. he’s been seeing what I’ve been seeing in models with regard to strictly tropical systems 
Pressure down to 995
11:00 AM AST Fri Jul 2
Location: 13.4°N 61.2°W
Moving: WNW at 29 mph
Min pressure: 995 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph
11:00 AM AST Fri Jul 2
Location: 13.4°N 61.2°W
Moving: WNW at 29 mph
Min pressure: 995 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph
Avalanche
Member
That recurve, unless it goes straight northward from there, does us no good, and puts extreme eastern NC in bad shape for additional rain they don't need. How are the lowlands of SC rain wise? Might be needed for them.
A track only 50mi to the left has huge ramifications for Florida. Likewise, 50mi to the right and it's shrederolla time.
Shaggy
Member
One note from the disco is the poorly defined circulation at 700mb. If that doesn't improve and the LLC gets hit hard over Hispaniola then dissipation or extreme weakening is still on the table IMO
Downeastnc
Member
Honestly its better for us to get the rain here than inland over north central and central NC, east of here the rivers really dont flood from rain as its all wetlands and coastal marshes. Flash flooding would be a issue but we wont see bit river rise with rain over us or to the east. Farmers would lose out though but many of them are already losing a lot of crops to flooded fields. Wind wouldnt probably be a big issue though saturated ground might lead to more than average trees down from a 40-50 mph type system.
Say what you want about Elsa .. right now she’s beautiful .. not perfect but she has a much wider and more symmetrical cloud pattern which will only help her in the future battle problems such as dry air and shear .. the shredder shreds though not much can protect that .. unless of course she skirts around it … I think we see at least some strengthening later today as she won’t have to worry about the shredder yet
Uh oh Gfs coming in .. weak .. this is usually when the euro goes boom haha
The GFS also has the track shooting the gap between eastern Cuba and Jamaica. It must be forecasting some serious shear because that track is a worse-case scenario for Florida.
Gfs is stretching the mid level vortices this run, its also picking up on shear near Cuba from the lopsided qpf field. It'll probably go bonkers in the gulf since the model will probably bomb convection upshear and feed back on that.
Yeah it's not bad with the outflow channel to the north and the system movement with the shear. I'm just not sure how much of a system will be left then. If we start to decouple or open up the mid levels can the sfc circulation rebuild itself
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This storm is stupid
Bryan9451
Member
Just curious but I'd be in the mindset that if this thing develops into a strong hurricane then it would be towards the big bend or perhaps even further west. You seem to think if it develops into a strong hurricane it'll hit Tampa. Can you help me understand why? I've got a family vacation to PCB starting on Tuesday so I am hoping you are correct!!
Cary_Snow95
Member
I see people saying the data collected this morning was garbage and thats why that run was weak
The stronger the storm, the deeper the storm is vertically. A stronger storm will feel the weakness faster and be steered more eastward as it rounds the Atlantic ridge. A very strong hurricane can push farther westward in certain conditions but unless the Ridge is stronger it should move more eastward.
Now if this bombs out into a major hurricane for some reason in the next day, it may change some things.
HWRF just went bonkers. It showed a 954 mb hurricane @72 hours.
Jessy89
Member
I’m not gonna comment on the strength this will be. But I’m pretty sure of a Florida landfall somewhere. May still have shifts west or east but I don’t think it misses Florida.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
I don't recall any storm in this part of the Caribbean moving westward this fast. And most certainly none that looks as organized as this one.