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Tropical TS Elsa

Not to give a prediction yet but I think if you're in the southeast (especially Georgia, SC, NC) you maybe getting some significant rainfall from this if we keep the western shifts up. Personally I think from Biloxi to the western panhandle of florida looks prime for a landfall before pushing Northeast over the carolinas and then OTS.
 
iGRXY said:
Not to give a prediction yet but I think if you're in the southeast (especially Georgia, SC, NC) you maybe getting some significant rainfall from this if we keep the western shifts up. Personally I think from Biloxi to the western panhandle of florida looks prime for a landfall before pushing Northeast over the carolinas and then OTS.
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The good news is that it should be moving pretty quick.
 
iGRXY said:
Not to give a prediction yet but I think if you're in the southeast (especially Georgia, SC, NC) you maybe getting some significant rainfall from this if we keep the western shifts up. Personally I think from Biloxi to the western panhandle of florida looks prime for a landfall before pushing Northeast over the carolinas and then OTS.
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This has been my feeling on this since yesterday. I’m just not sure I can buy into these tracks out to sea on this yet until we would see more modeling trying to come north over Hispaniola. Even on the Euro, the center goes over over the western tip of the island
 
SD said:
So we have the gfs/Canadian with a big hit and the Euro, UK, Icon with nothing. I'll side with the latter trio until they go toward the gfs/cmc
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Models have a westerly bias , they like to push the storms to far to the left of guidance if I am not mistaken . I’m betting it trends east , also I saw someone say it would strengthen and that would mean more westward motion, however isn’t the opposite true ? A stronger storm wants to curve NE more than a weaker storm .
 
SD said:
So we have the gfs/Canadian with a big hit and the Euro, UK, Icon with nothing. I'll side with the latter trio until they go toward the gfs/cmc
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Well damn. Ya just looked at the euro and it basically does say no shot in hell it makes to gom. If this was moving slower maybe, but that door is wide ass open for a wide right miss.
 
Lickwx said:
Models have a westerly bias , they like to push the storms to far to the left of guidance if I am not mistaken . I’m betting it trends east , also I saw someone say it would strengthen and that would mean more westward motion, however isn’t the opposite true ? A stronger storm wants to curve NE more than a weaker storm .
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I said it could go more west because the ridge was building in (stronger upper ridge vs weaker low level flow) but doesn’t seem to be the case now.
 
deltadog03 said:
I said it could go more west because the ridge was building in (stronger upper ridge vs weaker low level flow) but doesn’t seem to be the case now.
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Thanks for clarifying. Euro really tears this up it looks , no chance of redevelopment after Hispaniola ?
 
Lickwx said:
Models have a westerly bias , they like to push the storms to far to the left of guidance if I am not mistaken . I’m betting it trends east , also I saw someone say it would strengthen and that would mean more westward motion, however isn’t the opposite true ? A stronger storm wants to curve NE more than a weaker storm .
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Generally yes stronger will want to punch into a ridge and eat away but if you have a weird case where upper level ridging is stronger it might bend it farther west. I think some of the ones in 2005 Rita maybe trended left as they got stronger. There is another that I can't remember anymore that the models just kept chasing left over time and it had a decent SW component to its movement
 
deltadog03 said:
Well damn. Ya just looked at the euro and it basically does say no shot in hell it makes to gom. If this was moving slower maybe, but that door is wide ass open for a wide right miss.
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Yeah the Euro is killing it as soon as it crosses the islands then the mountains finish the job. There is a good amount of shear north of the islands so I'm guessing that is why the Euro is killing it off. Even the CMC that has a US hit is really weak through the Caribbean.
 
SD said:
So we have the gfs/Canadian with a big hit and the Euro, UK, Icon with nothing. I'll side with the latter trio until they go toward the gfs/cmc
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This also could be a case where the European type models don’t handle tropical systems as well as American models … obviously we will see how everything shakes out but someone’s losing this match big time
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
I would also point out that the Hurricane models are on the side of the American models .. which I wouldn’t really want to go away from a model made specifically for tropical systems
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Isn’t this storm in the Long range for hurricane models ? I would imagine at the range this storm is on those models they wouldn’t have a good grip just yet.
 
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