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Tropical TS Elsa

metwannabe said:
Yeah GFS kept it south of all the mountainous terrain in Hispaniola and eastern Cuba, then crossed Cuba at it's flattest and narrowest area, perfect (or not so perfect depending on one's view I guess) track to have minimal land disruption.
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You know how these go, we all spend a lot of time talking about land interaction and then the storm finds a different path. Especially with storms with good forward motion like this they have a way of skipping along the coast, or throwing the center of circulation offshore quickly. Do they ingest dry air, absolutely. But the past few years it really seems like they don't settle over land for any important duration.
 
SD said:
If we get multiple inches that'll certainly be helpful. I personally think Elsa goes ots
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I think so too, maybe for different reasons, but that subtropical ridge is forcing it west quick, which imho gets it to the weakness created by the eastern trough soon enough to get pulled north and recurve.
 
The key with Elsa will 80% be if it hits Hispaniola or not … if it does like the euro suggests .. shredded to pieces and out to see it goes weak and pathetic… if it skips to the south … someone in the US will have to let it gooooooo
 
Shaggy said:
Setting up to be euro versus gfs in regards to track guidance per nhc.
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Am I wrong to say that based on the spaghetti plots, the Euro seems to be an outlier right now. It’s one of 3 that brings it north over Hispaniola or eastern Cuba and then to the east of Florida before going OTS. Everything else seems to be fairly clustered up into a track over western Cuba and into the GOM along the west coast of Florida and up into the Panhandle.
 
Chazwin said:
Am I wrong to say that based on the spaghetti plots, the Euro seems to be an outlier right now. It’s one of 3 that brings it north over Hispaniola or eastern Cuba and then to the east of Florida before going OTS. Everything else seems to be fairly clustered up into a track over western Cuba and into the GOM along the west coast of Florida and up into the Panhandle.
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Yeah it's an outlier. When the euro and the gfs are split I tend to let the ukmet be the decider. Whichever camp it leans is usually the stronger camp.
 
Shaggy said:
Forward speed is very fast as well which to me suggest a stronger ridge to her north. Euro had issues last year and wasn't king nearly as often.
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Yes and this is why I think it’s wrong to just automatically take the EURO over the GFS. The EURO brings it north more quickly because it keeps the storm weak. The problem is that the EURO has really struggled with strength the last several years and keeps them too weak, then once it realizes the storm is stronger than thought, it corrects the track and ends up pretty spot on.
 
Chazwin said:
Yes and this is why I think it’s wrong to just automatically take the EURO over the GFS. The EURO brings it north more quickly because it keeps the storm weak. The problem is that the EURO has really struggled with strength the last several years and keeps them too weak, then once it realizes the storm is stronger than thought, it corrects the track and ends up pretty spot on.
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Well to the euros credit here there is the real possibility that the circulation tilts or worse case fully decouples. If that occurs a weaker solution is still certainly very possible.
 
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Chazwin said:
Yes and this is why I think it’s wrong to just automatically take the EURO over the GFS. The EURO brings it north more quickly because it keeps the storm weak. The problem is that the EURO has really struggled with strength the last several years and keeps them too weak, then once it realizes the storm is stronger than thought, it corrects the track and ends up pretty spot on.
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The stronger the storm in this setup likely means a farther north track.

The key is speed and how strong is the tropical ridge. Due to the almost constant eastern trough and the Bermuda ridge being constantly over modeled I’d still lean the eastern track. It needs to stay weak and embedded in that fast flow to get more westward.
 
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