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Tropical TS Elsa

GFS seems over amped to me. It goes over Cuba and basically doesn't weaken and then landfalls in Florida and somehow maintains hurricane strength way inland LOL
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
GFS seems over amped to me. It goes over Cuba and basically doesn't weaken and then landfalls in Florida and somehow maintains hurricane strength way inland LOL
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Much faster run. The center doesn’t spend long over Cuba and it crosses over flatter terrain. Then continues the speed over Florida.
 
Chazwin said:
Much faster run. The center doesn’t spend long over Cuba and it crosses over flatter terrain. Then continues the speed over Florida.
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Moving at that speed though isn't going to allow for much intensification. It will have a hard time remaining closed if its doing 26 knots to the west
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
GFS seems over amped to me. It goes over Cuba and basically doesn't weaken and then landfalls in Florida and somehow maintains hurricane strength way inland LOL
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Because of the fast speed, is the reason it doesn't have time to weaken alot. Idk
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
Moving at that speed though isn't going to allow for much intensification. It will have a hard time remaining closed if its doing 26 knots to the west
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I've seen them keep hurricane strength at 25 knots before. Depends on how strong the hurricane is and how the environment is
 
accu35 said:
I've seen them keep hurricane strength at 25 knots before. Depends on how strong the hurricane is and how the environment is
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Exactly..: Hugo in 1989 strengthened from 105mph to 140 mph winds at landfall in about 24 hours… it also increased its forward speed during that time from 13mph to 25mph.
 
This now a TD per the new advisory. It is forecasted to become a TS soon but not make it to hurricane intensity with the strongest at 50 knots though confidence is low.
 
This ones probably going to be upgraded on the next advisory. It's starting to look real good despite the shear. Orientation of the storm is starting to shift from N-S, and vorticity and satellite indicate better alignment of the vorticity at 500-850Mbs.
 
smast16 said:
Western Cuba is very flat terrain. It does not have the mountainous terrain like the Eastern half and Hispanola.
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Yeah GFS kept it south of all the mountainous terrain in Hispaniola and eastern Cuba, then crossed Cuba at it's flattest and narrowest area, perfect (or not so perfect depending on one's view I guess) track to have minimal land disruption.
 
Elsa has strengthened a little.
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.1N 51.4W
ABOUT 680 MI...1095 KM ESE OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
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145500_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
 
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