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Tropical TS Elsa

Shaggy said:
I certainly hate to hear 1996 as an analog any year. Fran was by far the biggest hurricane for winds here. Gusted to 106 and had 90+mph for what seemed like hours and hours.
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Yeah I mean its concerning to see 96, 98, 99 on analog lists but how many times have we seen good winter analogs in November lol. I think the big thing to watch over the next 30-60 days is do we keep up the northward displaced ridges and low heights in the central and southern US.
 
SD said:
Yeah I mean its concerning to see 96, 98, 99 on analog lists but how many times have we seen good winter analogs in November lol. I think the big thing to watch over the next 30-60 days is do we keep up the northward displaced ridges and low heights in the central and southern US.
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I have lost a lot of faith in analogs over the last few years. But so far, from what I'm seeing, I think the east coast is definitely at elevated risk for multiple hits this year, assuming storms form and are not inhibited by dust/dry air.
 
SD said:
Yeah I mean its concerning to see 96, 98, 99 on analog lists but how many times have we seen good winter analogs in November lol. I think the big thing to watch over the next 30-60 days is do we keep up the northward displaced ridges and low heights in the central and southern US.
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We have been lucky that last several years with the ridging keeping them in the gulf or a trough swinging down at the past minute with the coastal scrapers but seeing Danny just barrel straight in with the strong ridging way north like we were in the tropics is concerning.


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Rain Cold said:
I have lost a lot of faith in analogs over the last few years. But so far, from what I'm seeing, I think the east coast is definitely at elevated risk for multiple hits this year, assuming storms form and are not inhibited by dust/dry air.
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As the climate slowly shifts i wonder how that will effect analogs?
 
SD said:
Of course. I'll be at the beach. 1996 is looking more and more like a solid analog September might not be good for us
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land interaction and our big high “should” save us I think. Looks like a gulf threat based off of this no? Most guidance has it into the gulf. Some gefs members try to get it up the east coast
 
Vorticity Signature over the past 6 hours illustrating that wave orientation has gone from W-E to SW-NE, and Satellite shows it attempting to orient from N-S. The circulation is tightening on 850-700Mb vorticity, and latest Satellite images seems to show convection firing around spin at 42W8.5N, and the lower level cloud patterns seems to indicate a more vertically aligned LLC and MLC around this area.

Let the fun begin!
 
Rain Cold said:
Seems like it's already fouling them up plenty. You can see it particularly well in winter.
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I think a lot of people are using analogs incorrectly and there's a mindset that enso=results no questions asked and that's been dumped on recently as the patterns haven't acted like climo enso
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
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land interaction and our big high “should” save us I think. Looks like a gulf threat based off of this no? Most guidance has it into the gulf. Some gefs members try to get it up the east coast
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Yeah into the gulf or just off shore seem most likely at the moment.
 
I think dry air hinders this significantly especially in the Caribbean. Looking at the water vapor loop you can see a big pool of dry air getting ready to push. Euro keys on that specifically. Not to mention it’ll be cruising forward pretty quick
 
SD said:
I think a lot of people are using analogs incorrectly and there's a mindset that enso=results no questions asked and that's been dumped on recently as the patterns haven't acted like climo enso
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Yeah I agree with this. And some people who ought to know how to properly apply analogs seem to foul it up. But I'm not entirely sure it's their fault. I really do believe that things have changed that make the entire process more difficult now to undertake than maybe 20 years ago.
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
I think dry air hinders this significantly especially in the Caribbean. Looking at the water vapor loop you can see a big pool of dry air getting ready to push. Euro keys on that specifically. Not to mention it’ll be cruising forward pretty quick
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The SAL really isn't that impressive, and 95L is eating away at it.
 
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