Shaggy
Member
The GEFS stronger members were certainly on the northern edge of the ens. Stronger earlier could mean northern islands and not so deep in the Caribbean.
Will be the first one to really track for the year IMO.
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Tropical TS Elsa
- Thread starter Cary_Snow95
- Start date
The GEFS stronger members were certainly on the northern edge of the ens. Stronger earlier could mean northern islands and not so deep in the Caribbean.
Will be the first one to really track for the year IMO.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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Tornadocane
Member
You're right, but I just don't think it will be as intense as some of the stronger solutions are depicting unless it stays on a course towards N or S Jamaica. If it does head towards the islands, it'll probably weaken. I'm also not discounting some small scale features near the SA and CA Coast having some impact. I also don't trust this trough cause they've been forecasting a trough to bring SW winds over my area for over a week. The best we can do is an ULL that's beaten back by this ridge.
Tornadocane
Member
Nice! You should have been Danny.
Cary_Snow95
Member
Gfs really wants to take it into the gulf and then back over Florida along the east coast all the while never weakening it lol
Shaggy
Member
Seems odd it keeps its strength. Selfishly it doesnt matter one way or the other for MBY. I'm coming off a monster month with around 20 inches of rain. Even if it's a remnant low that gives me a few inches all it is doing is setting the stage for a POTENTIAL disaster if we get any major hits in the peak of the season. Not anything I want to deal with so the GOM can keep it.
BHS1975
Member
Avalanche
Member
Further west in NC we need the tropical rain!!
The EURO has struggled the last several years with TC development and eventual strength, but strangely enough was a system has developed, the EURO has done the best with the track.
Tornadocane
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Cary_Snow95
Member
Not liking all the ensemble members painting their way up the east coast. Some are carbon copies of Isaias up the coast.
Acworth WX
Member
Will be in Key West all next week with the family.
Maybe...
Maybe...
Show them please
Brent
Member
PTC probably coming at 5
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad low pressure area
and tropical wave located about 1300 miles east-southeast of the
Windward Islands have become better organized since yesterday.
However, recent satellite wind data indicates that the disturbance
does not have a well-defined circulation. Environmental conditions
appear generally favorable for continued development, and a tropical
depression or storm is likely to form during the next day or two
while the system moves west-northwestward at 20 to 25 mph.
Interests in the Lesser Antilles should closely monitor the progress
of this system, as advisories on a potential tropical cyclone,
accompanied by tropical storm watches for portions of this area, are
likely to be issued later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad low pressure area
and tropical wave located about 1300 miles east-southeast of the
Windward Islands have become better organized since yesterday.
However, recent satellite wind data indicates that the disturbance
does not have a well-defined circulation. Environmental conditions
appear generally favorable for continued development, and a tropical
depression or storm is likely to form during the next day or two
while the system moves west-northwestward at 20 to 25 mph.
Interests in the Lesser Antilles should closely monitor the progress
of this system, as advisories on a potential tropical cyclone,
accompanied by tropical storm watches for portions of this area, are
likely to be issued later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
Avalanche
Member
The ones that bring it in the Gulf then turn it NE would be ideal for NC. Dont need it riding the intercoastal waterway flooding Pitt and Wayne county areas as they are already above normal.
smast16
Member
TOday, at 12Z, GEFS paints the overarching story line. Where is the ridge in 72 hours. , and how strong?
We've seen this story before.
Part of the story, the other is how much land interaction in the Caribbean. We all know what the the shredder Hispaniola can do
Shaggy
Member
I think you mean WAY above normal. PGV is running a 12 inch surplus at the moment. We do not need a TC of any kind right now. Rivers are low and okay but ground is pretty saturated.
Attachments
Shaggy
Member
Continues to improve as the day goes on. Not bad for June MDR development.
Clear things we have to iron out from this picture … how organized can it get before the shredder … after the shredder will there be anything left and if so slides it even have the strength to keep going .. if it enters the Bahamas strengthening looks more likely but if it’s the gulf I think there’s a chance it strengthens although most of those paths have low intensity because I think Cuba really took most of the punch out of her … interesting overall .. fun to be tracking so early
BHS1975
Member
With the MDR popping this early we won't have as much chance of ots tracks with the whole month of a July and early August pattern ahead.
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Looks like this could be the first big threat of the season. Giddy up!
Tornadocane
Member
Tornadocane
Member
National Hurricane Center
NHC will initiate advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Five, located over the central Tropical Atlantic, at 500 PM AST (2100 UTC).
NHC will initiate advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Five, located over the central Tropical Atlantic, at 500 PM AST (2100 UTC).
Brent
Member
Cue the hype and the Elsa memes
Shaggy
Member
Sure looks good for a June system in the deep tropics. Looks better right now than any of the previously named systems we've had so far. That's bound to lead to some hype.
Don’t you mean Let it Go… lol
Brent
Member
No hurricane forecast... Yet
Tornadocane
Member
"I don't care what they're going to say."
That’s probably a wise call at this point. I’m not sure this would get to hurricane before it gets to Hispaniola, and if the center moves very close or over the island it would get shredded and knocked back down. If this track stays fairly close and it misses the island to the south, I expect you’ll see the NHC bring this up to hurricane strength
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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It’s gonna end up in the gulf, they do 90% of the time, watch the western tracks
Downeastnc
Member
I dunno if I have learned anything over the years its that they struggle with intensity......it could easily be a cane before the islands.
Shaggy
Member
Especially givens it's current rate of organization.
Psalm 148:8
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Um.. no no, no, no no!!! It better turn out to sea, die, or head toward anywhere that will not mess up my vacation on gulf shores next weekend ?
Henry2326
Member
18z models today.....could go either way.....too soon to tell.
Honestly that’s what my thinking is right now. Though I think the pattern favors more of an east of New Orleans type threat. The biggest question is how strong the steering will be when and if it comes into the southeast… does it just sit and spin out somewhere dumping huge rainfall amounts like Alberto in 1994 did?
Shaggy
Member
I think the biggest threat to the system will be the forward speed. If it really does move at 25kts that's too fast IMO.