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Tropical TS Elsa

Dang.... lots of options on the table

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Clear things we have to iron out from this picture … how organized can it get before the shredder … after the shredder will there be anything left and if so slides it even have the strength to keep going .. if it enters the Bahamas strengthening looks more likely but if it’s the gulf I think there’s a chance it strengthens although most of those paths have low intensity because I think Cuba really took most of the punch out of her … interesting overall .. fun to be tracking so early
 
With the MDR popping this early we won't have as much chance of ots tracks with the whole month of a July and early August pattern ahead.


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Looks like this could be the first big threat of the season. Giddy up!
 
No hurricane forecast... YetView attachment 85952
That’s probably a wise call at this point. I’m not sure this would get to hurricane before it gets to Hispaniola, and if the center moves very close or over the island it would get shredded and knocked back down. If this track stays fairly close and it misses the island to the south, I expect you’ll see the NHC bring this up to hurricane strength
 
Don’t you mean Let it Go… lol
Absolutely perfect. A+

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That’s probably a wise call at this point. I’m not sure this would get to hurricane before it gets to Hispaniola, and if the center moves very close or over the island it would get shredded and knocked back down. If this track stays fairly close and it misses the island to the south, I expect you’ll see the NHC bring this up to hurricane strength

I dunno if I have learned anything over the years its that they struggle with intensity......it could easily be a cane before the islands.
 
It’s gonna end up in the gulf, they do 90% of the time, watch the western tracks
Honestly that’s what my thinking is right now. Though I think the pattern favors more of an east of New Orleans type threat. The biggest question is how strong the steering will be when and if it comes into the southeast… does it just sit and spin out somewhere dumping huge rainfall amounts like Alberto in 1994 did?
 
I think the biggest threat to the system will be the forward speed. If it really does move at 25kts that's too fast IMO.
 
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