The good news is that it should be moving pretty quick.
This has been my feeling on this since yesterday. I’m just not sure I can buy into these tracks out to sea on this yet until we would see more modeling trying to come north over Hispaniola. Even on the Euro, the center goes over over the western tip of the island
Models have a westerly bias , they like to push the storms to far to the left of guidance if I am not mistaken . I’m betting it trends east , also I saw someone say it would strengthen and that would mean more westward motion, however isn’t the opposite true ? A stronger storm wants to curve NE more than a weaker storm .
I said it could go more west because the ridge was building in (stronger upper ridge vs weaker low level flow) but doesn’t seem to be the case now.
Thanks for clarifying. Euro really tears this up it looks , no chance of redevelopment after Hispaniola ?
Generally yes stronger will want to punch into a ridge and eat away but if you have a weird case where upper level ridging is stronger it might bend it farther west. I think some of the ones in 2005 Rita maybe trended left as they got stronger. There is another that I can't remember anymore that the models just kept chasing left over time and it had a decent SW component to its movement
Yeah the Euro is killing it as soon as it crosses the islands then the mountains finish the job. There is a good amount of shear north of the islands so I'm guessing that is why the Euro is killing it off. Even the CMC that has a US hit is really weak through the Caribbean.
Nearly none enter the shredder that is Hispaniola and all are way south with good agreement … who is wildly wrong here?
Yep should have a pretty good answer by Saturday morning
I would also point out that the Hurricane models are on the side of the American models .. which I wouldn’t really want to go away from a model made specifically for tropical systems
www.google.com
Isn’t this storm in the Long range for hurricane models ? I would imagine at the range this storm is on those models they wouldn’t have a good grip just yet.
Not surprised , euro still leads as top hurricane model I’d say. Interesting it beats out hurricane models like the HWRF. UK is second best .The most reliable hurricane models, according to their 2019 performance » Yale Climate Connections
And why you should ignore them all in favor of the National Hurricane Center forecast.
Hwrf uses the gfs for its boundary conditions around the nest. If the gfs is missing something it will too
New advisory:
Same general overall idea when looking at the past few advisories. Obviously the NHC seems to be favoring the more western solutions that go into the Gulf. I certainly wouldn’t bet against those forecasters. All in all, they’ve done a really good job on forecast tracks the last few years, even a few days out. The only one that I can really recall them completely whiffing was Irma….which just kept correcting further westNew advisory:
New track:
Shoots the gap and goes over the thinnest part of the island. NiceNew advisory:
New track:
Could be alot less than that if the Euro is right..
It would need to slow it down a good bit more than than that. That set up would most likely be a track right up the Florida west coast and into the Big Bend area. As the trough pulls away it could also slow the forward speed down significantly as it comes into the southeast. This is something that is a worry this time of the year with troughs not dipping as far south as we see in the fall. The trough will be enough to pull it north, but if the storm gets left behind, then you end with a storm overland just spinning itself out and dumping tons of rain.
