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Tropical TS Elsa

Shaggy said:
The GEFS stronger members were certainly on the northern edge of the ens. Stronger earlier could mean northern islands and not so deep in the Caribbean.

Will be the first one to really track for the year IMO.
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You're right, but I just don't think it will be as intense as some of the stronger solutions are depicting unless it stays on a course towards N or S Jamaica. If it does head towards the islands, it'll probably weaken. I'm also not discounting some small scale features near the SA and CA Coast having some impact. I also don't trust this trough cause they've been forecasting a trough to bring SW winds over my area for over a week. The best we can do is an ULL that's beaten back by this ridge.
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
Gfs really wants to take it into the gulf and then back over Florida along the east coast all the while never weakening it lol
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Seems odd it keeps its strength. Selfishly it doesnt matter one way or the other for MBY. I'm coming off a monster month with around 20 inches of rain. Even if it's a remnant low that gives me a few inches all it is doing is setting the stage for a POTENTIAL disaster if we get any major hits in the peak of the season. Not anything I want to deal with so the GOM can keep it.
 
Shaggy said:
Seems odd it keeps its strength. Selfishly it doesnt matter one way or the other for MBY. I'm coming off a monster month with around 20 inches of rain. Even if it's a remnant low that gives me a few inches all it is doing is setting the stage for a POTENTIAL disaster if we get any major hits in the peak of the season. Not anything I want to deal with so the GOM can keep it.
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Further west in NC we need the tropical rain!!
 
Shaggy said:
Wasnt it the Euro that struggled bad last year with TC genesis? If I remember correctly the GFS was always first to pick up on a storm.
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The EURO has struggled the last several years with TC development and eventual strength, but strangely enough was a system has developed, the EURO has done the best with the track.
 
PTC probably coming at 5

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad low pressure area
and tropical wave located about 1300 miles east-southeast of the
Windward Islands have become better organized since yesterday.
However, recent satellite wind data indicates that the disturbance
does not have a well-defined circulation. Environmental conditions
appear generally favorable for continued development, and a tropical
depression or storm is likely to form during the next day or two
while the system moves west-northwestward at 20 to 25 mph.
Interests in the Lesser Antilles should closely monitor the progress
of this system, as advisories on a potential tropical cyclone,
accompanied by tropical storm watches for portions of this area, are
likely to be issued later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
 
smast16 said:
TOday, at 12Z, GEFS paints the overarching story line. Where is the ridge in 72 hours. , and how strong?

We've seen this story before.
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Part of the story, the other is how much land interaction in the Caribbean. We all know what the the shredder Hispaniola can do
 
Avalanche said:
The ones that bring it in the Gulf then turn it NE would be ideal for NC. Dont need it riding the intercoastal waterway flooding Pitt and Wayne county areas as they are already above normal.
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I think you mean WAY above normal. PGV is running a 12 inch surplus at the moment. We do not need a TC of any kind right now. Rivers are low and okay but ground is pretty saturated.
 

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