• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical TS Elsa

GFS seems over amped to me. It goes over Cuba and basically doesn't weaken and then landfalls in Florida and somehow maintains hurricane strength way inland LOL
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
GFS seems over amped to me. It goes over Cuba and basically doesn't weaken and then landfalls in Florida and somehow maintains hurricane strength way inland LOL
Click to expand...
Much faster run. The center doesn’t spend long over Cuba and it crosses over flatter terrain. Then continues the speed over Florida.
 
Chazwin said:
Much faster run. The center doesn’t spend long over Cuba and it crosses over flatter terrain. Then continues the speed over Florida.
Click to expand...
Moving at that speed though isn't going to allow for much intensification. It will have a hard time remaining closed if its doing 26 knots to the west
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
GFS seems over amped to me. It goes over Cuba and basically doesn't weaken and then landfalls in Florida and somehow maintains hurricane strength way inland LOL
Click to expand...
Because of the fast speed, is the reason it doesn't have time to weaken alot. Idk
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
Moving at that speed though isn't going to allow for much intensification. It will have a hard time remaining closed if its doing 26 knots to the west
Click to expand...
I've seen them keep hurricane strength at 25 knots before. Depends on how strong the hurricane is and how the environment is
 
accu35 said:
I've seen them keep hurricane strength at 25 knots before. Depends on how strong the hurricane is and how the environment is
Click to expand...
Exactly..: Hugo in 1989 strengthened from 105mph to 140 mph winds at landfall in about 24 hours… it also increased its forward speed during that time from 13mph to 25mph.
 
This now a TD per the new advisory. It is forecasted to become a TS soon but not make it to hurricane intensity with the strongest at 50 knots though confidence is low.
 
This ones probably going to be upgraded on the next advisory. It's starting to look real good despite the shear. Orientation of the storm is starting to shift from N-S, and vorticity and satellite indicate better alignment of the vorticity at 500-850Mbs.
 
smast16 said:
Western Cuba is very flat terrain. It does not have the mountainous terrain like the Eastern half and Hispanola.
Click to expand...
Yeah GFS kept it south of all the mountainous terrain in Hispaniola and eastern Cuba, then crossed Cuba at it's flattest and narrowest area, perfect (or not so perfect depending on one's view I guess) track to have minimal land disruption.
 
Elsa has strengthened a little.
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.1N 51.4W
ABOUT 680 MI...1095 KM ESE OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
Click to expand...
145500_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
 
metwannabe said:
Yeah GFS kept it south of all the mountainous terrain in Hispaniola and eastern Cuba, then crossed Cuba at it's flattest and narrowest area, perfect (or not so perfect depending on one's view I guess) track to have minimal land disruption.
Click to expand...
You know how these go, we all spend a lot of time talking about land interaction and then the storm finds a different path. Especially with storms with good forward motion like this they have a way of skipping along the coast, or throwing the center of circulation offshore quickly. Do they ingest dry air, absolutely. But the past few years it really seems like they don't settle over land for any important duration.
 
SD said:
If we get multiple inches that'll certainly be helpful. I personally think Elsa goes ots
Click to expand...
I think so too, maybe for different reasons, but that subtropical ridge is forcing it west quick, which imho gets it to the weakness created by the eastern trough soon enough to get pulled north and recurve.
 
The key with Elsa will 80% be if it hits Hispaniola or not … if it does like the euro suggests .. shredded to pieces and out to see it goes weak and pathetic… if it skips to the south … someone in the US will have to let it gooooooo
 
Shaggy said:
Setting up to be euro versus gfs in regards to track guidance per nhc.
Click to expand...
Am I wrong to say that based on the spaghetti plots, the Euro seems to be an outlier right now. It’s one of 3 that brings it north over Hispaniola or eastern Cuba and then to the east of Florida before going OTS. Everything else seems to be fairly clustered up into a track over western Cuba and into the GOM along the west coast of Florida and up into the Panhandle.
 
Chazwin said:
Am I wrong to say that based on the spaghetti plots, the Euro seems to be an outlier right now. It’s one of 3 that brings it north over Hispaniola or eastern Cuba and then to the east of Florida before going OTS. Everything else seems to be fairly clustered up into a track over western Cuba and into the GOM along the west coast of Florida and up into the Panhandle.
Click to expand...

Yeah it's an outlier. When the euro and the gfs are split I tend to let the ukmet be the decider. Whichever camp it leans is usually the stronger camp.
 
Shaggy said:
Forward speed is very fast as well which to me suggest a stronger ridge to her north. Euro had issues last year and wasn't king nearly as often.
Click to expand...
Yes and this is why I think it’s wrong to just automatically take the EURO over the GFS. The EURO brings it north more quickly because it keeps the storm weak. The problem is that the EURO has really struggled with strength the last several years and keeps them too weak, then once it realizes the storm is stronger than thought, it corrects the track and ends up pretty spot on.
 
Chazwin said:
Yes and this is why I think it’s wrong to just automatically take the EURO over the GFS. The EURO brings it north more quickly because it keeps the storm weak. The problem is that the EURO has really struggled with strength the last several years and keeps them too weak, then once it realizes the storm is stronger than thought, it corrects the track and ends up pretty spot on.
Click to expand...

Well to the euros credit here there is the real possibility that the circulation tilts or worse case fully decouples. If that occurs a weaker solution is still certainly very possible.
 
Last edited:
Chazwin said:
Yes and this is why I think it’s wrong to just automatically take the EURO over the GFS. The EURO brings it north more quickly because it keeps the storm weak. The problem is that the EURO has really struggled with strength the last several years and keeps them too weak, then once it realizes the storm is stronger than thought, it corrects the track and ends up pretty spot on.
Click to expand...

The stronger the storm in this setup likely means a farther north track.

The key is speed and how strong is the tropical ridge. Due to the almost constant eastern trough and the Bermuda ridge being constantly over modeled I’d still lean the eastern track. It needs to stay weak and embedded in that fast flow to get more westward.
 
Last edited:
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top